Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Inflation in "super core" services — services excluding housing — posted its strongest monthly reading since mid-2022, and its three-month average has ticked higher, reviving concern that late-year disinflation progress was a head fake. Disinflation has been uneven since core goods prices peaked, with the three-month average accelerating roughly every 8 months.

Chris Marsh Money: Inside and Out
Date Posted:

The January rise in super core services inflation could mean the disinflationary process is slowing or has stopped, or it might be “just be another set-back in a very slow process of disinflation.” @GeneralTheorist

Is a jump in services inflation a setback or a trend reversal?

Core argument: The super core services print is the strongest month since mid-2022 and above last year's January print, with the 3-month moving average ticking higher.

The super core service print is more of a worry. As noted, this is the strongest month since mid-2022 and above last year’s January print. The 3MMA has ticked higher. And a sequence of stronger prints, as in the first third of last year, would hint at the disinflation progress late last year being a head fake. Concern about sticky service inflation, after the progress through December, will return. On the other hand, this might just be another set-back in a very slow process of disinflation. Since core goods peaked in late-2021, the disinflation process has not been smooth, as there has been an acceleration in the 3MMA of seasonally adjusted inflation roughly every 8 months—with each peak being 0.2 - 0.3 ppts below the previous. Super core services peaked last February and now has also two set-backs since. The second peak was only marginally below the first, however. And it is possible the current peak equals or exceeds the second. This will hinge on whether the February and March prints show further signs of price re-sets at the beginning of the year.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The super core services print is the strongest month since mid-2022 and above last year's January print, with the 3-month moving average ticking higher.
  2. Since core goods inflation peaked in late 2021, the 3-month moving average of seasonally adjusted inflation has accelerated roughly every 8 months, with each peak 0.2–0.3 percentage points below the previous one.
  3. Super core services inflation peaked last February and has seen two setbacks since, with the second peak only marginally below the first; whether the current peak matches or exceeds it hinges on whether February and March prints show further start-of-year price re-sets.

Related Articles:

  • OER You Serious? — January price increases tend to be cyclical and volatile—a "January effect"—with sequential inflation usually slowing the following month, and 3- and 6-month trimmed inflation measures remained rangebound. The authors therefore raise their core personal consumption inflation forecast only modestly, by 0.1pp to 2.3%, and continue to project five 25bp Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
  • Furman On January CPI — Core consumer price inflation came in hotter than expected at 0.4% in a single month, a 4.8% annual rate, versus 3.9% over 12 months, 3.6% over 6 months and 4.0% over 3 months. Overall inflation also picked up but trailed core, as food prices rose further while energy prices fell for a fourth straight month.
  • The Big Picture: Back to the Future — The secular backdrop has shifted from disinflationary to more inflationary, with interest rates no longer near zero and real rates no longer negative. Household balance sheets are as healthy as they have been in 20 years, leaving room to borrow, while the public sector is as indebted as it has ever been.
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