“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council

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How Likely Is a Human Bird Flu Pandemic?

Donato Paolo Mancini and Clive Cookson Financial Times

Date Posted:: February 23, 2023

The incoming chief scientist of the WHO tells the @FinancialTimes “If there was an outbreak tomorrow of H5N1 in humans, we wouldn’t be able to vaccinate the world within 2023.”

Infectious disease experts say the risk remains largely contained to the animal population — 50mn birds, including poultry, have been killed by the virus or culled in this outbreak, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention. Large-scale culling has been carried out in dozens of countries including Japan, France and the US. H5N1 is “a big worry,” said Jeremy Farrar, flu expert and outgoing director of the Wellcome Trust. “You would hate to look back in the midst of an H5N1 pandemic and say: ‘Hold on, didn’t we watch this avian population die all over the world and we started to see mammals dying and what did we do about it?’” He said more vigorous action was needed both to build up H5N1 vaccine stocks and prevent circulation of the virus among mammals. “If there was an outbreak tomorrow of H5N1 in humans, we wouldn’t be able to vaccinate the world within 2023,” added Farrar, who will become chief scientist at the World Health Organization in May.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reports that 50mn birds, including poultry, have been killed by the virus or culled in this outbreak, with large-scale culling carried out in dozens of countries including Japan, France and the US.
Infectious disease experts say the H5N1 risk remains largely contained to the animal population, while Jeremy Farrar, outgoing director of the Wellcome Trust, calls the virus "a big worry" and urges more vigorous action to build vaccine stocks and prevent circulation among mammals.
Jeremy Farrar, who becomes chief scientist at the World Health Organization in May, said that if an H5N1 outbreak in humans occurred tomorrow, the world could not be vaccinated within 2023.

Ancient DNA Reveals Pervasive Directional Selection Across West Eurasia

Ali Akbari, Annabel Perry, Alison Barton, Mohammadreza Kariminejad, et al. Nature

Date Posted:: April 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians reveals that natural selection accelerated dramatically in the past 10,000 years, following the agricultural revolution. The strongest selection drove improved immune function and lighter skin pigmentation.

We present a method for detecting directional selection in ancient DNA time-series data that tests for consistent trends in allele frequency change over time, and apply it to 15,836 West Eurasians (10,016 with new data). We estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants, enabling study of how Darwinian forces couple to allelic effects and shape the genetic architecture of complex traits. We focused on 12 traits of particular interest with significant signals from all three tests (Figure 4). One of the strongest signals is an increase over time in the PGS for light skin pigmentation. Type 2 diabetes risk factors give compelling signals of negative selection. We detected negative polygenic selection against alleles associated today with psychoses such as bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. We finally observed signals of selection for combinations of alleles that today are associated with three correlated behavioural traits: scores on intelligence tests, household income and years of schooling. An important caveat is [that] these effects were measured in industrialized societies, and it remains unclear how these relate to phenotypes that were adaptive in the past.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Applying a new test for directional selection to ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians, 10,016 with newly reported data, the authors estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants to study how selection shapes the genetic architecture of complex traits.
Among 12 traits with significant signals from all three tests, one of the strongest is an increase over time in the polygenic score for light skin pigmentation, alongside negative selection on type 2 diabetes risk factors and on alleles associated today with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.
The authors observed signals of selection on combinations of alleles associated today with intelligence test scores, household income, and years of schooling, while cautioning that these effects were measured in industrialized societies and their relation to past adaptive phenotypes remains unclear.

Self-Selection and the Diminishing Returns of Research

Lorenz Ekerdt and Kai-Jie Wu Working Paper

Date Posted:: December 9, 2024
Is Database:: Database

Ekerdt and Wu argue that the diminishing returns to research since the 1960s is a result of the 3X increase in the share of the labor force employed in research, which resulted in a transitional decline in the “average ability among researchers.”

We argue that a substantial portion of the declining productivity of research is the product of a transitional composition effect instead of a permanent phenomenon. We show that the share of the labor force employed in research has increased 3-fold since the 1960s. If workers are sorted into sectors according to ability, this rapid expansion cannot have been achieved without changing the average ability among researchers. If research is positively selected on ability, i.e., workers with a comparative advantage in research also tend to have an absolute advantage in research, the direction of this change is unambiguously negative. This source of diminishing returns is transitional because it is expected to fade away when the share of workers employed in research ceases to rise. Our results suggest that the average ability of researchers has fallen substantially. We find that separating transitional diminishing returns from permanent ones nearly doubles the long-run growth rate of per capita income predicted by a broad class of growth models.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The authors show the share of the labor force employed in research has risen 3-fold since the 1960s, an expansion they argue could not occur without lowering researchers' average ability if workers sort into sectors by ability.
The authors argue much of research's declining productivity is a transitional composition effect that fades once the research employment share stops rising, not a permanent phenomenon, and find average researcher ability has fallen substantially.
Separating transitional from permanent diminishing returns nearly doubles the long-run growth rate of per capita income predicted by a broad class of growth models, according to the authors.

The Next Battle in Higher Ed May Strike at Its Soul: Scholarship

Anemona Hartocollis The New York Times

Date Posted:: January 16, 2024
Is Database:: Database

Over 10,000 research papers were retracted in 2023 globally according to @Nature, up from 400 in 2010. The retractions are due to both increased scrutiny but also the rise of “paper writing mills” or low-quality journals.

A cottage industry of checking research papers sprung up in the last two decades, including Retraction Watch, the Center for Open Science, and Data Colada, a blog dedicated to unmasking research based on bad data. The number of retracted research papers has grown dramatically over time, to more than 10,000 retractions internationally in 2023, an annual record, according to the journal Nature, up from about 400 papers in 2010, when Retraction Watch began its work. This may be in part because the scrutiny has intensified, said Ivan Oransky, co-founder of Retraction Watch. Nature also blamed the rise of paper-writing mills. “What’s different this time is the levels at which this seems to be striking — Harvard and Stanford,” Dr. Oransky said. “These are cataclysmic events.”

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Retracted research papers exceeded 10,000 internationally in 2023, an annual record, up from about 400 in 2010, according to the journal Nature.
Nature attributed part of the rise in retractions to paper-writing mills, while Retraction Watch co-founder Ivan Oransky said intensified scrutiny may also play a part.
A cottage industry of research checking has emerged over two decades, including Retraction Watch, the Center for Open Science, and Data Colada, with Oransky saying cases now strike Harvard and Stanford.

Florida Ocean Temperatures At ‘Downright Shocking’ Levels

Dan Stillman Washington Post

Date Posted:: July 11, 2023
Is Database:: Database

Coastal waters in Florida are currently between 92 and 96 degrees vs. typical averages in the upper 80s. About 40% of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave according to @NOAA.

Much of Florida is seeing its warmest year on record, with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. While some locations have been setting records since the beginning of the year, the hottest weather has come with an intense heat dome cooking the Sunshine State in recent weeks. That heat dome has made coastal waters extremely warm, including “downright shocking” temperatures of 92 to 96 degrees in the Florida Keys, meteorologist and journalist Bob Henson said Sunday in a tweet. “That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s,” tweeted Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa. The hot waters around Florida are connected to record-breaking ocean heat worldwide. About 40 percent of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave, NOAA reported. That is the highest percentage on record, and it could reach 50 percent by September.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Water temperatures in the Florida Keys have reached 92 to 96 degrees, which meteorologist Bob Henson called "downright shocking"; WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said such waters are more typically in the upper 80s.
Much of Florida is seeing its warmest year on record, with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal and an intense heat dome bringing the hottest weather in recent weeks.
NOAA reported that about 40 percent of the world's oceans face a marine heat wave, the highest percentage on record, and that share could reach 50 percent by September.

Earth Keeps Breaking Temperature Records Due to Global Warming

Will Mathis and Aaron Clark Bloomberg

Date Posted:: July 5, 2023
Is Database:: Database

The world’s global mean temperature reached a record 63°F on July 4th, topping a previous record of 62°F set in 2016.

The average worldwide temperature reached 17C (63F) on Monday, just above the previous record of 16.9C in August 2016, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The threshold only lasted a day. On Tuesday, the average temperature hit 17.2C.

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The average worldwide temperature reached 17C (63F) on Monday, just above the previous record of 16.9C set in August 2016, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
The 17C mark held for only a day, as the global average temperature reached 17.2C on Tuesday.

Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones

Marta Serra-Garcia Science

Date Posted:: June 15, 2021
Is Database:: Database

Research in @ScienceAdvances finds papers that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, even after publication of replication failures.

A study in Science Advances reveals that papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate. This trend persists even after the publication of replication failures, with only 12% of subsequent citations acknowledging these failures. The quality of citations for nonreplicable papers is comparable to replicable ones, as measured by the impact factor of citing journals. Experts can predict which papers will replicate, yet nonreplicable papers are often published due to a trade-off between the perceived interest of results and reproducibility standards. This suggests a systemic issue in academic publishing where the allure of novel findings outweighs the importance of scientific rigor, potentially skewing economic and policy decisions based on unreliable data.

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Papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, according to a study in Science Advances.
Only 12% of citations to nonreplicable papers published after replication failures acknowledge those failures, and the impact factor of citing journals is comparable for nonreplicable and replicable papers.
The Science Advances study reports that experts can predict which papers will replicate, and attributes publication of nonreplicable papers to a trade-off between the perceived interest of results and reproducibility standards.

New paper from Science Advances highlights the replication problem in science, “….We use publicly available data to show that published papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate are cited more than those that replicate. This difference in citation does not change after the publication of the failure to replicate. Only 12% of post replication citations of nonreplicable findings acknowledge the replication failure. Existing evidence also shows that experts predict well which papers will be replicated. Given this prediction, why are nonreplicable papers accepted for publication in the first place? A possible answer is that the review team faces a trade-off. When the results are more “interesting,” they apply lower standards regarding their reproducibility….”

Core result, “…Our main finding is that papers that fail to replicate in (5-7) are cited more than those that are replicable. We find no significant change in citation trends, even after the publication of the failed replication. Notably, only a minority of publications after the failed replications were published acknowledge the failure. The “quality” of citations of papers that failed to replicate is similar to that of papers that were replicated: We do not find a difference in how often the citations of nonreplicable publications are cited by others or in the impact factor of the journals in which citations are published…”

The evidence, "...Figure 1 shows the distribution of total citation counts by the end of 2019 of the papers included in the replication projects, separately depending on replicability for Nature/Science, economics journals, and psychology journals. Replicability is measured according to the criterion that the replication project featured a P value of 0.05 or lower in a two-sided test, with an effect in the same direction as the original test….”

Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones: Extended Excerpt Image 1

Marta Serra-Garcia and Uri Gneezy, "Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones,"Science Advances, May 21, 2021, https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/21/eabd1705

The incoming chief scientist of the WHO tells the @FinancialTimes “If there was an outbreak tomorrow of H5N1 in humans, we wouldn’t be able to vaccinate the world within 2023.”

How likely is bird flu to spread among humans?

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Ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians reveals that natural selection accelerated dramatically in the past 10,000 years, following the agricultural revolution. The strongest selection drove improved immune function and lighter skin pigmentation.

Has human genetic selection continued to shape traits across West Eurasia?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Ekerdt and Wu argue that the diminishing returns to research since the 1960s is a result of the 3X increase in the share of the labor force employed in research, which resulted in a transitional decline in the “average ability among researchers.”

Does expanding the research workforce explain falling research productivity?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Over 10,000 research papers were retracted in 2023 globally according to @Nature, up from 400 in 2010. The retractions are due to both increased scrutiny but also the rise of “paper writing mills” or low-quality journals.

Are retractions of research papers rising sharply?

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Coastal waters in Florida are currently between 92 and 96 degrees vs. typical averages in the upper 80s. About 40% of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave according to @NOAA.

How warm have Florida's coastal waters and oceans worldwide become?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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The world’s global mean temperature reached a record 63°F on July 4th, topping a previous record of 62°F set in 2016.

Are global average temperatures setting new record highs?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Research in @ScienceAdvances finds papers that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, even after publication of replication failures.

Do papers that fail to replicate receive more citations?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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