Increases in real disposable income per person in only the two quarters before a vote can, with an adjustment for tenure in the White House, predict the vote share of parties that are governing America to a striking degree of accuracy. Because inflation has fallen without a recession, tight labor markets continue to produce strong real wage growth. In the last quarter of 2023, real disposable income per person grew at an annualised rate of 1.9%. If maintained until the election, that pace would be associated with a winning margin equivalent to Bill Clinton’s in 1996.
- Date Posted:
- January 31, 2024
Elementary and middle-school students have made up significant ground since the pandemic school closings in 2020. Overall in math, a subject where learning loss has been greatest, students have made up about a third of what they lost. In reading, they have made up a quarter, according to the new analysis of standardized test score data led by researchers at Stanford and Harvard. Once schools reopened, the pace of recovery was similar across districts, the analysis shows. Both the richest and poorest districts managed to teach more than in a usual school year — about 17 percent more in math, and 8 percent more in reading — as schools raced to help students recover. Yet because poor districts had lost more ground, their progress was not nearly enough to outpace wealthier districts, widening the gulf between them. The typical rich district is about a fifth of a grade level behind where it was in 2019. The typical poor district: nearly half a grade.