Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

Josh Zumbrun Wall Street Journal
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The gig economy’s rise was overstated, with nontraditional jobs increasing by only 1-2% points over the last decade, not 5% as previously estimated, according to @joshzumbrun @WSJ.

Recent analyses reveal that the rise of the gig economy was overstated, with the share of the workforce in nontraditional jobs increasing by only 1-2 percentage points over the last decade, contrary to earlier estimates of a 5 percentage point rise. Economic conditions between 2005 and 2015, including a 3% annual GDP growth and a subsequent recession, created a temporary environment conducive to gig work. However, this did not signify a permanent shift, as confirmed by the Labor Department's 2017 survey. Flaws in survey methodologies, such as inconsistent questioning about secondary jobs, contributed to initial miscalculations. These findings underscore the necessity of using consistent methods to accurately measure labor force trends over time.

WSJ reports on the BLS study on the "Gig Economy" we looked at last summer and previews a forthcoming Krueger/Katz paper confirming the findings

".... “After sifting through the new evidence,” Mr. Krueger said, “Larry Katz and I now conclude that there was a modest rise in the share of the workforce in nontraditional jobs over the last decade—probably on the order of one to 2 percentage points, instead of the five percentage point rise we originally reported.”Comparisons between 2005 and 2015 had a hard time accounting for the difference in economic health. In 2005, wages and overall gross domestic product were growing around 3% a year—the housing bubble meant this growth would be fleeting—and about 63% of U.S. adults had jobs. The housing bust and recession that began in 2007 wrecked all of that, and by 2015, the economy had been on a slow mend. Wages and GDP growth were stagnant at 2%, and employment as a share of the population was about 4 percentage points lower. This created a fertile environment for people to experiment with gig work. Butit didn’t represent a permanent shift, as the Labor Department’s 2017 survey made clear Messrs. Krueger and Katz also conclude surveys of the topic have flaws.By studying individual survey responses, they found that when people answer questions about their spouses, they are much less likely to mention secondary jobs than when they answer questions about themselves. Their own survey hadn’t asked additional questions about spouses, whereas the Labor Department does, leading to a significant discrepancy. “These factors distorted our initial comparison, and highlight the importance of using consistent methods to measure labor force trends over time,” Mr. Katz said...."
Josh Zumbrun, "How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong,"Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-estimates-of-the-gig-economy-went-wrong-11546857000

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