Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Newer analyses find the growth of nontraditional work was overstated: the share of the workforce in such jobs rose by only 1–2 percentage points over a decade, versus earlier estimates of about 5 percentage points. Inconsistent survey methods, including differing questions about secondary jobs, contributed to the earlier miscalculations.

Josh Zumbrun Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
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The gig economy’s rise was overstated, with nontraditional jobs increasing by only 1-2% points over the last decade, not 5% as previously estimated, according to @joshzumbrun @WSJ.

Was the growth of nontraditional work overstated?

Core argument: Analyses indicate the share of the U.S. workforce in nontraditional jobs rose only 1–2 percentage points over the past decade, below earlier estimates of a 5-point increase.

Recent analyses reveal that the rise of the gig economy was overstated, with the share of the workforce in nontraditional jobs increasing by only 1-2 percentage points over the last decade, contrary to earlier estimates of a 5 percentage point rise. Economic conditions between 2005 and 2015, including a 3% annual GDP growth and a subsequent recession, created a temporary environment conducive to gig work. However, this did not signify a permanent shift, as confirmed by the Labor Department's 2017 survey. Flaws in survey methodologies, such as inconsistent questioning about secondary jobs, contributed to initial miscalculations. These findings underscore the necessity of using consistent methods to accurately measure labor force trends over time.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Analyses indicate the share of the U.S. workforce in nontraditional jobs rose only 1–2 percentage points over the past decade, below earlier estimates of a 5-point increase.
  2. Economic conditions between 2005 and 2015, including 3% annual GDP growth and a subsequent recession, created a temporary environment conducive to gig work rather than a permanent shift, according to the Labor Department's 2017 survey.
  3. Flaws in survey methodology, including inconsistent questioning about secondary jobs, contributed to the initial miscalculations, underscoring the need for consistent methods to measure labor force trends over time.

WSJ reports on the BLS study on the "Gig Economy" we looked at last summer and previews a forthcoming Krueger/Katz paper confirming the findings

".... “After sifting through the new evidence,” Mr. Krueger said, “Larry Katz and I now conclude that there was a modest rise in the share of the workforce in nontraditional jobs over the last decade—probably on the order of one to 2 percentage points, instead of the five percentage point rise we originally reported.”Comparisons between 2005 and 2015 had a hard time accounting for the difference in economic health. In 2005, wages and overall gross domestic product were growing around 3% a year—the housing bubble meant this growth would be fleeting—and about 63% of U.S. adults had jobs. The housing bust and recession that began in 2007 wrecked all of that, and by 2015, the economy had been on a slow mend. Wages and GDP growth were stagnant at 2%, and employment as a share of the population was about 4 percentage points lower. This created a fertile environment for people to experiment with gig work. Butit didn’t represent a permanent shift, as the Labor Department’s 2017 survey made clear Messrs. Krueger and Katz also conclude surveys of the topic have flaws.By studying individual survey responses, they found that when people answer questions about their spouses, they are much less likely to mention secondary jobs than when they answer questions about themselves. Their own survey hadn’t asked additional questions about spouses, whereas the Labor Department does, leading to a significant discrepancy. “These factors distorted our initial comparison, and highlight the importance of using consistent methods to measure labor force trends over time,” Mr. Katz said...."
Josh Zumbrun, "How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong,"Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-estimates-of-the-gig-economy-went-wrong-11546857000

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