“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council

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Competitive Advantage Period: The Neglected Value Driver

Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan Morgan Stanley

Date Posted:: April 15, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

The Competitive Advantage Period (CAP), the period in which the market implies a firm can earn a return greater than its cost of capital, for most firms is 5–20 years, as ROIC regresses to the mean. Persistence of ROIC has increased, driven by a small number of large firms since 2000.

The data suggest that persistence in ROIC is up since 2000 and that large companies are the main beneficiaries of the implied expansion in CAPs. To illustrate the point, the aggregate ROIC for the information technology sector was 19% versus the median of 10.8% from 1970 to 2024. As striking, the aggregate ROIC for the sector has been greater on average than the ROIC for the 75th-percentile company (i.e., the ROIC below which 75% of data fall), since the Great Recession. This means a small number of large companies are determining the aggregate figure for the sector. From 1926 to 2025, the average listing time for a public company in Bessembinder’s database was 11.7 years, and the median listing time was 6.8 years. About 9% of listed companies at the beginning of 2026 were more than 50 years old. Modeling perpetual growth without considering mortality can create a mismatch. Exhibit 7 shows what happened to about 13,800 U.S. public firms that started trading between 1976 and 2019, excluding financial firms. For every 100 companies, 18 survived and 82 died. Of those that died, 43 were the result of mergers and acquisitions. The other 39 were delisted for reasons other than M&A, with the majority of those for “cause.” This happens when a company files for bankruptcy or fails to meet certain requirements set by an exchange.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The aggregate return on invested capital for the information technology sector was 19% from 1970 to 2024 versus a median of 10.8%, and has on average exceeded the 75th-percentile company's ROIC since the Great Recession, meaning a small number of large companies determine the sector aggregate.
Of roughly 13,800 non-financial U.S. public firms that began trading between 1976 and 2019, 18 of every 100 survived and 82 died, 43 through mergers and acquisitions and 39 delisted for other reasons, the majority for cause such as bankruptcy.
The average listing time for a public company in Bessembinder's database was 11.7 years from 1926 to 2025, with a median of 6.8 years, and about 9% of companies listed at the start of 2026 were more than 50 years old.

The Bond Market Reckoning Has Only Begun

John Authers Bloomberg

Date Posted:: September 30, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The spread between 10-year French OATs and German Bunds has widened at a pace seen only during the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis. John Authers warns that France “satisfies all the classic conditions for a major debt crisis.”

Only in the worst days of the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, in 2011 and 2012, has the [spread of 10-Year French OATS over German Bunds] risen so fast. Talk of a second euro-zone crisis, this time with an epicenter in Paris, is growing, and it’s easy to see why. Why is this more of a problem for France and the UK? Beyond their deficits, they also shoulder much higher tax burdens than the US. Tax revenues are 25.2% of GDP in the US, the lowest of the major developed economies - but 35.3% in the UK and 43.9% in France. It’s hard to imagine after decades of tax-cutting, but a US politician could deal with the deficit fairly easily with a tax hike. It’s not clear that option is open to French lawmakers, even if they could somehow persuade voters to go along with them. The populist politicians of left and right, who currently look well placed in next year’s presidential elections, are in any case unlikely to try.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The spread of 10-year French OATs over German Bunds has risen at a pace matched only during the worst days of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis in 2011 and 2012, fueling talk of a second crisis centered in Paris.
Tax revenues equal 25.2% of GDP in the US, the lowest among major developed economies, versus 35.3% in the UK and 43.9% in France, leaving American politicians more room to close the deficit with a tax hike.
Populist politicians of left and right, currently well placed for France’s presidential election, are unlikely to attempt tax increases to address the deficit.

Foreign Capital Flows Into US Stocks Hit Record As Appetite For Debt Fades

Michael Taffe and George Steer Financial Times

Date Posted:: September 28, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Foreign investors bought a record net $426B of US equities and fund shares in Q2, up 62% y/y, part of a record $942B in the 12 months through July. Overseas investors bought a net $188B of US debt securities in Q2, down from $314B in Q1.

Foreign investors made a record $942bn in net purchases of US equities and investment fund shares in the 12 months to July, accelerating a shift in overseas investment towards American stocks and away from debt. The flows represented the highest rolling 12-month total in Treasury data going back to 1985. Net purchases of US equities and investment fund shares by foreign investors jumped to $426bn in the second quarter, up 62% from the same period in 2025, and surpassing the previous quarterly record of $299bn in 2022, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Foreign demand for US debt moved in the opposite direction. Overseas investors bought a net $188bn of US debt securities in the second quarter, down from $314bn in the first.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Foreign investors made a record $942bn in net purchases of US equities and investment fund shares in the 12 months to July, the highest rolling 12-month total in Treasury data going back to 1985.
Net foreign purchases of US equities and investment fund shares reached $426bn in the second quarter, up 62% from the same period in 2025 and above the prior quarterly record of $299bn in 2022, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Overseas investors bought a net $188bn of US debt securities in the second quarter, down from $314bn in the first.

De-reservification, Not De-dollarization

Brad Setser and Alex Etra Council on Foreign Relations

Date Posted:: September 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The stock of global dollar reserves has been roughly stable over the past decade. The world is not moving away from the dollar: dollar assets are shifting from official holdings of Treasurys towards private and quasi-sovereign holdings of risk assets.

Most of the current flow into the US from the “official” sector is coming from investors who are not classic reserve managers. Those flows remain heavily tilted toward the dollar, at least for now. Any real de-dollarization would likely occur first among these investors. Put differently, the dollar’s global role is increasingly as a source of returns, not a source of safety. The foreign bid, private and public, is for risk, not for Treasuries. It is currently fashionable in some circles to point to the diminution of the “convenience yield” on Treasuries even while the U.S. dollar continues to enjoy such a privilege. But the shift in the global investor base and their apparent portfolio preference for U.S. risk assets in lieu of Treasuries may help explain the divergence between the convenience yield on Treasuries and the convenience yield on the USD.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Most official-sector inflows into the U.S. come from investors who are not classic reserve managers, and those flows remain heavily tilted toward the dollar, so any real de-dollarization would likely begin among these investors.
The dollar’s global role is increasingly as a source of returns rather than safety, with the foreign bid, private and public, directed at risk assets rather than Treasuries.
The shift in the global investor base toward U.S. risk assets in lieu of Treasuries may help explain the divergence between the convenience yield on Treasuries and that on the dollar, and suggests the “profit dollar” is likely trading at a historical premium.

Foreign Investors Prefer US Stocks To Treasuries As Debt Worries Grow

Emily Herbert and Ian Smith Financial Times

Date Posted:: September 15, 2026
Is Database:: Database

International net flows into US equities reached 2.8% of GDP in the year through June, exceeding net inflows into Treasuries of 2% of GDP. Outside brief episodes during the pandemic and the aftermath of the GFC, this is the first time this century that equity inflows have surpassed Treasury inflows.

International flows into US stocks reached 2.8% of US GDP on average in the year to June, overtaking Treasuries — at 2% of GDP — for the first time this century outside brief episodes in the Covid-19 pandemic and the aftermath of the global financial crisis, according to analysis of US Treasury data by Deutsche Bank. The change reflects the ever-growing lure of the US stock market, with the S&P 500 on track for a fourth straight year of double-digit gains. Powering the rally has been vast AI investment, which is driving profit margins to new highs, according to FactSet data stretching back to 2009.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Foreign inflows into US stocks averaged 2.8% of US GDP in the year to June, overtaking Treasuries at 2% of GDP, according to Deutsche Bank analysis of US Treasury data.
Deutsche Bank’s analysis marks the first time this century that foreign equity flows have exceeded Treasury flows, outside brief episodes during the Covid-19 pandemic and the aftermath of the global financial crisis.
The S&P 500 is on track for a fourth straight year of double-digit gains, powered by vast AI investment that is driving profit margins to new highs, according to FactSet data stretching back to 2009.

Interest Rates and Stock Prices: An Old Debate Resurfaces!

Aswath Damodaran Musing on Markets

Date Posted:: September 14, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Damodaran’s “intrinsic” 10-year Treasury rate—calculated as US real GDP growth plus inflation—has broadly tracked the nominal 10-year Treasury yield since 1962. As of early September 2026, the 10-year yield of ~5% was 41bp below his 5.41% intrinsic-rate estimate.

[The graph shows] the actual inflation rates and real GDP growth rates for the US, going back to 1962, and [the implied] intrinsic 10-year treasury rate (the cumulative column) and actual 10-year treasury rate each year. When inflation surged in 2022, interest rates went up, but since the rates that I am tracking are long term rates, the intrinsic risk free rate vastly exceeded the actual rate that year, but the difference has narrowed over time, and almost dissipated by September 2026 (when the US 10-year treasury bond rate was [5%] and and the intrinsic ten-year rates yielded 5.41%).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

As of September 2026, the US 10-year Treasury rate stood at 4.75% while the intrinsic 10-year rate was 5.41%, a gap of 66 basis points.
When inflation surged in 2022, the intrinsic risk-free rate vastly exceeded the actual 10-year Treasury rate, and that difference has narrowed since.
The intrinsic 10-year Treasury rate is built from actual US inflation and real GDP growth rates going back to 1962 and compared against the actual 10-year Treasury rate each year.

World’s Unusually High Dollar Exposure Risks Fueling Selloff

Ruth Carson, Masaki Kondo, and Anya Andrianova Bloomberg

Date Posted:: September 3, 2026
Is Database:: Database

A Bloomberg analysis finds only 41% of global investors’ foreign-currency exposure is hedged in six major markets, the lowest level since 2015. Foreigners now hold almost $40T of American assets.

Sift through the filings of pension funds and insurers around the world and one thing stands out: some of the biggest holders of US assets have little protection against a weaker dollar, leaving the currency at risk of steeper declines if sentiment suddenly turns. Across markets [Canada, Denmark, Australia, Taiwan, Japan and Finland for which data is available] investors hedged just 41% of their foreign-currency exposure as of June 30 — the lowest since at least 2015. While not a complete picture, it offers a glimpse into how the sudden rush last year to hedge against dollar losses triggered by President Donald Trump’s global tariff rollout has faded as the US currency slowly stabilized.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Pension funds and insurers in Canada, Denmark, Australia, Taiwan, Japan and Finland hedged just 41% of their foreign-currency exposure as of June 30, the lowest share since at least 2015.
Some of the biggest holders of US assets have little protection against a weaker dollar, leaving the currency at risk of steeper declines if sentiment suddenly turns.
The rush to hedge against dollar losses triggered by President Donald Trump's global tariff rollout has faded as the US currency slowly stabilized.

The Competitive Advantage Period (CAP), the period in which the market implies a firm can earn a return greater than its cost of capital, for most firms is 5–20 years, as ROIC regresses to the mean. Persistence of ROIC has increased, driven by a small number of large firms since 2000.

Have high returns on invested capital become more persistent for large companies?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

The spread between 10-year French OATs and German Bunds has widened at a pace seen only during the eurozone sovereign-debt crisis. John Authers warns that France “satisfies all the classic conditions for a major debt crisis.”

Do high tax burdens limit France and the UK's deficit options?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Foreign investors bought a record net $426B of US equities and fund shares in Q2, up 62% y/y, part of a record $942B in the 12 months through July. Overseas investors bought a net $188B of US debt securities in Q2, down from $314B in Q1.

Are foreign investors shifting from US debt into US stocks?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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The stock of global dollar reserves has been roughly stable over the past decade. The world is not moving away from the dollar: dollar assets are shifting from official holdings of Treasurys towards private and quasi-sovereign holdings of risk assets.

Why do Treasuries trade at a discount while the dollar keeps premium?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Are foreign investors now buying more US stocks than Treasuries?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Damodaran’s “intrinsic” 10-year Treasury rate—calculated as US real GDP growth plus inflation—has broadly tracked the nominal 10-year Treasury yield since 1962. As of early September 2026, the 10-year yield of ~5% was 41bp below his 5.41% intrinsic-rate estimate.

Do long-term Treasury rates line up with inflation and growth fundamentals?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

A Bloomberg analysis finds only 41% of global investors’ foreign-currency exposure is hedged in six major markets, the lowest level since 2015. Foreigners now hold almost $40T of American assets.

Does low currency hedging by foreign investors leave the dollar vulnerable?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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