How the American economy did under Donald Trump
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The American economy performed marginally better than expected from 2017-2019, with median household income growth accelerating & GDP growth outperforming IMF forecasts.
Economist Staff, "How the American economy did under Donald Trump,"The Economist, October 14, 2020, https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/14/how-the-american-economy-did-under-donald-trump
In terms of low skilled wage growth, “…The lot of working-class Americans, however, definitely improved in 2017-19.Comparing household incomes between countries is difficult, certainly for recent years. But though there is some dispute about the reliability of the data gathered in 2020, where the pandemic made it difficult for researchers to conduct surveys, there is clear evidence of an acceleration in the growth of America’s median household income from 2017 onwards (see chart 7). A tight labour market also helped raise the wage growth of the lowest-paid Americans, relative to others, to a degree not seen since Bill Clinton was president (see chart 8)…”
In terms of labor markets, “…America’s labour-market performance is similarly nuanced. Though Mr Trump particularly likes to boast about monthly employment figures, it is hard to make the case that in 2017-19 the jobs machine was whirring. Jobs growth was slower than it had been during Mr Obama’s second term. In 2009-16 America’s unemployment rate fell relative to the average for other g7 economies (see chart 6). Under Mr Trump unemployment did fall to the lowest since the 1960s, but this was not internationally exceptional. America’s improvement relative to employment in other countries stopped under Mr Trump...”
In terms of beating forecasts, “….another way to look at this question is to assess whether America in 2017-19 exceeded or fell short of economists’ expectations (see chart 2). In October 2012 the imf forecast that in the subsequent four years (those of Mr Obama’s second term), the American economy would grow by an annual average of 3%. In fact that proved to be too optimistic; it actually grew by closer to 2% a year. But the imf was too pessimistic in its projections for 2017-19, released shortly before the election of 2016. In those years America outperformed the forecasts….”
In terms of GDP, “…GDP growth was somewhat faster in 2017-19 than it was in either Barack Obama’s first or second term, according to official data. America also did well relative to other countries. The world economy peaked in 2017. In 2018 it slowed but America accelerated. In 2019 America slowed too, but stayed ahead of others…”
The Economistreviews America’s relative economic performance versus the G6 and concludes, “…in 2017-19, the American economy performed marginally better than expected….”
Ed Comment:“Good data. Ok to add. But not done thoughtfully. Accumulated investment is more relevant for example than yearly change. And employment should be relative to slack and working-age population growth. Without that context, head to head comparisons are dumb. In both cases, Obama comes up way short. After 2010, there should have been a much bigger surge in investment. He barely accumulates enough investment to get us back to 2007. And Trump faced much more headwinds than Obama on increasing employment (and growing the economy) ….”