Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. JPMorgan projects that share sales will add roughly $1.5tn of stock to the US equity market over the next two years even after buybacks, which would be the strongest net equity issuance since at least the late 1990s. Equity has grown cheaper relative to debt as a funding source.

Lu Wang and Carmen Reinicke Bloomberg
Date Posted:
Is Database:
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JPM estimates that between 2006 and 2025, net US equity issuance was ~ negative $430B. This de-equitization trend may be over, as JPM forecasts that ~$1.5T of stock will be added to US equity markets over the next two years.

Is the long era of shrinking stock supply reversing?

Core argument: JPMorgan projects that IPOs, secondary offerings, and other share sales will add roughly $1.5 trillion of stock to the US equity market over the next two years, even after accounting for buybacks.

For the better part of two decades, a defining feature of the US stock market has been scarcity. Year after year, shares disappeared from public hands, with buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing nearly $12 trillion worth. According to JPMorgan, IPOs, secondary offerings, and other share sales are poised to add roughly $1.5 trillion of stock to the US equity market over the next two years, even after accounting for buybacks. If realized, it would mark the strongest period of net equity issuance since at least the late 1990s. The shift toward selling more equity is being driven not only by a need for capital but by the opportunity to raise it on attractive terms. The cost of equity has been getting cheaper vis-à-vis debt since the Federal Reserve raised rates to a two-decade high in 2023, ending a prolonged era of cheap borrowing. Thanks to a $30 trillion share rally since, the advantage has persisted even as the Fed started cutting rates.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. JPMorgan projects that IPOs, secondary offerings, and other share sales will add roughly $1.5 trillion of stock to the US equity market over the next two years, even after accounting for buybacks.
  2. Such issuance would mark the strongest period of net US equity issuance since at least the late 1990s, following two decades in which S&P 500 buybacks alone erased nearly $12 trillion worth of shares.
  3. The cost of equity has fallen relative to debt since the Federal Reserve raised rates to a two-decade high in 2023, and a $30 trillion share rally has sustained that advantage even as the Fed began cutting rates.

Related Articles:

  • Post-IPO Liquidity Stress Syndrome — Net equity issuance by US domestic non-financial companies has turned positive for the first time since 2021, and a pipeline of initial public offerings and secondary offerings points toward further increases. Net shareholder payouts remain positive on strong earnings and dividends, but the author argues that falling earnings or rising issuance would worsen the outlook for US equities.
  • US Stock Market To Stop Shrinking For First Time In 23 Years — Goldman Sachs estimates that net supply of US equity — new shares issued less shares removed by buybacks and take-privates — will be roughly flat in 2026 after being negative since 2003, with a larger influx expected in 2027 as lock-up periods on this year's initial public offerings expire.
  • Capital Allocation — Internal financing has been the main source of capital for U.S. corporations, with steady new debt issuance except in recession years, consistent with a stable capital structure. Companies have retired equity on average, and net equity issuance remains negative even after accounting for stock-based compensation.
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