Edward Conard

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  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Copper producers warn that existing and planned mines are insufficient to meet expected demand, which is projected to climb as the world electrifies and as living standards rise in India and other developing nations. Anglo American estimates Western living standards require 200-250kg of copper per person, versus a global average of 60kg.

Harry Dempsey and Euan Healy Financial Times
Date Posted:

S&P Global forecasts that copper demand will double to 50mm metric tons by 2035 compared with 2021 levels, and predicts a “chronic gap” between supply and demand.

Will existing and planned copper mines meet rising global demand?

Core argument: Copper prices have fallen 4% this year to about $8,000 a tonne, down from more than $10,000 at last year's peak, as world economic growth cooled and output rose at new mines in Peru and Chile.

Copper prices have dropped 4% this year to about $8,000 a tonne, down from more than $10,000 at their peak last year, as the growth in the world economy has cooled off and production at new mines in Peru and Chile has been increasing. Yet demand for the commodity is expected to take off to supply the green economy, as well as to support the economic rise of India and other developing nations. The living standards of the average westerner requires 200-250 kilogrammes of copper per person, versus 60kg on average globally, according to Anglo American, one of the world’s largest miners. It is used in everything from electrical wiring and household appliances to infrastructure such as trains. Its use will become ever greater as the world goes green, resulting in it being dubbed the “metal of electrification.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Copper prices have fallen 4% this year to about $8,000 a tonne, down from more than $10,000 at last year's peak, as world economic growth cooled and output rose at new mines in Peru and Chile.
  2. Anglo American estimates that western living standards require 200–250 kg of copper per person, versus a global average of 60 kg, with demand expected to take off as India and other developing nations grow richer.
  3. Copper producers warn that too few mines exist to meet expected demand for the metal, whose use in wiring, appliances and infrastructure such as trains has earned it the label "metal of electrification.".

Related Articles:

  • How to Avoid a Green-Metals Crunch — The International Energy Agency projects a carbon-neutral world in 2050 will need 35m tonnes of green metals annually, with demand by 2030 rising 50-70% for copper and nickel, 150% for cobalt and neodymium, and six- to sevenfold for graphite and lithium. Industry forecasters anticipate copper supply gaps of 2m-4m tonnes and a lithium shortfall of 50,000-100,000 tonnes by 2030.
  • Copper Is Unexpectedly Getting Cheaper — Financial investors have shifted away from copper toward cash-generating assets as interest rates rise, with futures positioning implying more bets on falling prices than recovery. Prices remain about $2,500 a tonne above marginal production costs, suggesting the correction removed froth rather than pushing prices too low.
  • Glencore Says This Time Is Different for Coming Copper Shortage — Glencore estimates a cumulative gap between projected copper demand and supply of 50m tons through 2030, against current world demand of about 25m tons a year, and argues the industry will not lift supply as it has in previous cycles. The company says copper prices do not yet reflect the coming deficit.
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