“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
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“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
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Living Outside China Has Become More Like Living Inside China

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: February 27, 2024

Some 18% of China’s 900 dollar-billionaires now live abroad as part of the 10.5mm Chinese diaspora; 1.5% of all Chinese with investable of wealth over $1mm left the country in 2023.

There are about 10.5m people living outside China who are, or once were, Chinese citizens. Only the Indian, Russian, and Mexican diasporas are larger. Some of these Chinese are among the country’s richest people. More than 70% of the 81,000 investor visas issued by the American government to dollar-millionaires between 2010 and 2019 were given to Chinese citizens. There are signs that post-pandemic, the outflow of extreme wealth is accelerating. Some 18% of China’s nearly 900 dollar-billionaires live abroad, according to the 2023 China Rich List published by Hurun, a firm which tracks such things, up from 6% in 2019. Despite tightening capital controls, more than 13,500 people with investable wealth of $1m or more left China in 2023, according to Henley & Partners, a consultancy. It says this equates to around 1.5% of Chinese with that level of wealth. The less affluent are leaving too, often by perilous means. In 2023 nearly 53,000 Chinese were detained at the American border, compared with just over 1,000 in 2018, a far faster increase than for overall border arrests. In the first eight months of 2023, more than 13,000 Chinese tried to make it to America via the perilous Darien Gap forest area in Panama.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Some 18% of China's nearly 900 dollar-billionaires live abroad, up from 6% in 2019, according to Hurun's 2023 China Rich List.
Henley & Partners reports that more than 13,500 Chinese with investable wealth of $1m or more left China in 2023, about 1.5% of Chinese at that wealth level, despite tightening capital controls.
Nearly 53,000 Chinese were detained at the American border in 2023, compared with just over 1,000 in 2018, a far faster increase than for overall border arrests.

China’s Growth Machines

Robin Rivaton and Ben Southwood Works In Progress

Date Posted:: October 14, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

The US generates ~2x as much output per dollar of capital as China. Rivaton and Southwood argue that relentless competition among Chinese subnational governments, who account for ~85% of public expenditure, drives industrial growth at the cost of reduced capital efficiency.

Overexuberance is visible in economic data. Interest rates that banks pay to depositors are capped, giving banks artificially cheap capital. Entrepreneurs may be backed to attempt extremely unlikely, borderline schemes. The capital efficiency ratio measures how much output a country gets out of the capital stock it has invested – how many dollars of GDP a country can buy with a dollar of investment. The United States gets almost twice as much economic output out of every dollar it invests as China does, precisely the opposite of what we would expect from a developed country with a mature economy versus a rapidly growing country playing catch up.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The United States obtains nearly twice as much GDP from every dollar invested as China does, measured by the capital efficiency ratio of output to invested capital stock.
China’s capital efficiency inverts the expected pattern, in which a rapidly growing catch-up economy would extract more output per dollar of investment than a mature developed economy.
Overexuberance is visible in Chinese macroeconomic data, with China’s investment generating less economic output per dollar than that of the United States.

Who Loses from China’s Export Gains?

Charles Austin Jordan and Logan Wright Rhodium Group

Date Posted:: September 24, 2026
Is Database:: Database

China’s share of global exports by volume is on track to rise from 20% in 2025 to 28% by 2030. Yet China’s rising export share may depress the total value of global exports as lower-priced Chinese goods displace more expensive exports from other countries.

The net result of our projection would suggest that China gains around $1.13 trillion in annual export value by 2030 relative to the baseline scenario, while the rest of the world loses around $5.1 trillion, with the G7 accounting for $2.25 trillion of those potential losses alone. This implies that China’s export share gains effectively destroy overall global trade values relative to the status quo due to continued declines in export prices. Regardless of which assumptions are used, China’s export share gains appear to reduce global total potential export values, because trade patterns are shifting toward Chinese goods that are declining in price.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The projection has China gaining roughly $1.13 trillion in annual export value by 2030 relative to the baseline scenario, while the rest of the world loses about $5.1 trillion.
The G7 accounts for $2.25 trillion of the projected $5.1 trillion in export value losses borne by countries outside China.
China’s export share gains appear to reduce global total potential export values regardless of the assumptions used, because trade patterns shift toward Chinese goods whose prices continue to decline.

The Export Wave Is Cresting

Andrew Batson Gavekal

Date Posted:: September 23, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Andrew Batson argues that as the memory-chip price cycle’s impact on Chinese export growth fades, export growth in renminbi terms in 2027 “will most likely converge toward the recent trend for products outside the AI complex, which is around 5–7%.”

China’s latest extraordinary export wave is showing signs of cresting. The headline YoY growth of exports has leveled off over the past three months, staying around 24-27% in US dollar terms and 18-20% in renminbi terms. The boom in exports of products associated with investment in artificial intelligence is certainly not over, but current super-high growth rates will probably slow in coming months. Memory chips are now the biggest single swing factor for exports, and prices for some products have recently leveled off after their massive surge. While the ebb and flow of memory prices is difficult to forecast, growth of total exports in 2027 will most likely converge toward the recent trend for products outside the AI complex, which is around 5-7%. Semiconductor cycles have limited implications for China’s vast range of other exports, which are still very competitive in global markets.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

China’s export growth has leveled off over the past three months at roughly 24–27% year-on-year in US dollar terms and 18–20% in renminbi terms, a sign the export wave is cresting.
Memory chips are the biggest single swing factor for China’s exports, with prices for some products leveling off after a massive surge and super-high AI-related growth rates likely to slow in coming months.
Total Chinese export growth in 2027 will most likely converge toward the recent 5–7% trend for products outside the AI complex, which remain very competitive in global markets.

Who Will Win The War Of Neo-Mercantilists?

Martin Wolf Financial Times

Date Posted:: July 22, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Martin Wolf estimates that under reasonable assumptions, China should be earning ~$100B annually on her $4T of foreign assets. Yet, China shows an unexplained negative net income of around $125bn on its net foreign asset position.

China’s macroeconomics are very different from those obtained before the global financial crisis and, even more so, before the end of its property boom. Exports are surging, but domestic demand has stalled. China's export surplus in manufacturing is now around 2% of world GDP, which is “roughly twice the largest surplus Japan ever ran.” Most importantly, China shows an unexplained negative net income of around $125bn on its net foreign investments. But it should, on reasonable assumptions about the income it earns on its $4tn in net foreign assets, have a surplus of some $100bn. As a result, Brad Setser argues, the renminbi is by now some 30% undervalued. China’s policies look unavoidably threatening to much of the world. If a major trading partner runs huge and persistent trade and current account surpluses, everyone else has to run offsetting deficits. This leads to the shrinkage of sectors specialising in producing tradable goods and services, as well as huge domestic financial deficits.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

China's manufacturing export surplus stands at roughly 2% of world GDP, described as roughly twice the largest surplus Japan ever ran, while exports surge and domestic demand stalls.
China reports an unexplained negative net income of about $125bn on its net foreign investments, though reasonable assumptions about returns on its $4tn in net foreign assets imply a surplus near $100bn.
Brad Setser argues the renminbi is some 30% undervalued; persistent Chinese trade and current account surpluses require offsetting deficits elsewhere, shrinking sectors producing tradable goods and services and producing large domestic financial deficits.

China’s Trade Surplus With EU Hits Record as Tensions Intensify

Bloomberg Staff Bloomberg

Date Posted:: July 14, 2026
Is Database:: Database

China’s trade surplus with the European Union increased 27% y/y to $32.9B in June. China’s surplus with Germany more than doubled.

China’s trade surplus with the European Union climbed to a fresh high, keeping the issue of growing imbalances high on the agenda as the bloc weighs new measures to shield local industries. With exports to the EU soaring to a record, China’s surplus with the bloc rose 27% from a year earlier to $32.9 billion in June, according to Chinese customs data released on Tuesday. The country’s surplus with Germany more than doubled year-on-year while plunging 81% with France. For the first half of the year, China imported $135.6 billion of goods from the EU, up 9% from a year earlier. Meanwhile its exports amounted to $312.3 billion during the period, a gain of 17%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

China's trade surplus with the EU rose 27% from a year earlier to $32.9 billion in June, with exports to the bloc reaching a record, according to Chinese customs data.
China exported $312.3 billion of goods to the EU in the first half of the year, up 17%, while importing $135.6 billion from the bloc, up 9%.
China's surplus with Germany more than doubled from a year earlier while its surplus with France fell 81%, as the EU weighs new measures to shield local industries.

The Emergence Of A New Anchor

Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Gave Gavekal

Date Posted:: May 20, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Post-covid, Renminbi bonds have outperformed all major bond markets over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave argue that two parallel worlds are emerging: an inflationary OECD and a deflationary Asia/emerging markets.

Renminbi bonds have now outperformed other major bond markets year to date, over the past 12 months, three years, five years, so far this decade, and over the past 10 years. Most countries now trade more with China than with the US. This is arguably the major shift of the past two decades. Put differently, for all the talk of “deglobalization,” the world is not so much “deglobalizing” as “de-Westernizing.” The idea that the world is closing in on itself would sound silly to anyone living in Jakarta, Mumbai, Dubai, or São Paulo. And the more countries trade with China, the more comfortable they become saving in renminbi and buying renminbi bonds to fund future trade. In turn, this implies the coexistence of two worlds: one stable—Asia and emerging markets—and one unstable—the OECD; one inflationary—the OECD—and the other deflationary—Asia and emerging markets.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Renminbi bonds have outperformed other major bond markets year to date and over the past 12 months, three years, five years, this decade, and the past 10 years.
Most countries now trade more with China than with the United States, a shift the author calls arguably the major one of the past two decades and a sign the world is "de-Westernizing" rather than deglobalizing.
The author argues that greater trade with China makes countries more comfortable saving in renminbi and buying renminbi bonds, implying two coexisting worlds: a stable, deflationary Asia and emerging markets, and an unstable, inflationary OECD.

Some 18% of China’s 900 dollar-billionaires now live abroad as part of the 10.5mm Chinese diaspora; 1.5% of all Chinese with investable of wealth over $1mm left the country in 2023.

Are growing numbers of wealthy Chinese moving abroad?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

The US generates ~2x as much output per dollar of capital as China. Rivaton and Southwood argue that relentless competition among Chinese subnational governments, who account for ~85% of public expenditure, drives industrial growth at the cost of reduced capital efficiency.

Does China get less economic output per dollar invested than America?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

China’s share of global exports by volume is on track to rise from 20% in 2025 to 28% by 2030. Yet China’s rising export share may depress the total value of global exports as lower-priced Chinese goods displace more expensive exports from other countries.

Do China's export share gains reduce global export values?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Andrew Batson argues that as the memory-chip price cycle’s impact on Chinese export growth fades, export growth in renminbi terms in 2027 “will most likely converge toward the recent trend for products outside the AI complex, which is around 5–7%.”

Is China's export boom leveling off toward slower growth?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Martin Wolf estimates that under reasonable assumptions, China should be earning ~$100B annually on her $4T of foreign assets. Yet, China shows an unexplained negative net income of around $125bn on its net foreign asset position.

Is China's currency undervalued as its export surplus hits record levels?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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China’s trade surplus with the European Union increased 27% y/y to $32.9B in June. China’s surplus with Germany more than doubled.

Is China's trade surplus with the European Union reaching record levels?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Post-covid, Renminbi bonds have outperformed all major bond markets over 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave argue that two parallel worlds are emerging: an inflationary OECD and a deflationary Asia/emerging markets.

Is rising trade with China making countries save in renminbi?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

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