Edward Conard

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  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
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Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The Congressional Budget Office estimates more than 9m people have migrated on net to the U.S. in recent years, nearly matching the prior decade's total and lifting population growth to almost 1.2% a year. Fewer than 30% are lawful permanent residents; without immigration, growth would be 0.2%.

Paul Kiernan Wall Street Journal
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Since the end of 2020, net immigration has lifted the US population by 9 million people, contributing to annual population growth of 1.2%, the highest since the early 1990s. The bulk of the 6.5mm net illegal immigrants came across the southern border.

How much does immigration drive U.S. population growth?

Core argument: More than nine million people have migrated to the U.S. on net since the end of 2020, coming both legally and illegally, nearly as many as arrived in the previous decade, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates and projections.

Since the end of 2020, more than nine million people have migrated to the U.S., after subtracting those who have left, coming both legally and illegally, according to estimates and projections from the Congressional Budget Office. That’s nearly as many as the number that came in the previous decade. Immigration has lifted U.S. population growth to almost 1.2% a year, the highest since the early 1990s. Without it, the U.S. population would be growing 0.2% a year because of declining birthrates and would begin shrinking around 2040, the CBO projects. Most migrants didn’t come through regular legal channels. Less than 30%, or 2.6 million, are what the CBO counts as “lawful permanent residents,” which includes green-card holders and other immigrants who came through legal channels, such as family or employment-based visas.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. More than nine million people have migrated to the U.S. on net since the end of 2020, coming both legally and illegally, nearly as many as arrived in the previous decade, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates and projections.
  2. Immigration has lifted U.S. population growth to almost 1.2% a year, the highest since the early 1990s; without it, the Congressional Budget Office projects growth of 0.2% a year and a population that begins shrinking around 2040 because of declining birthrates.
  3. Fewer than 30% of those migrants, or 2.6 million, are counted by the Congressional Budget Office as lawful permanent residents, a category including green-card holders and immigrants arriving through family or employment-based visas.

Related Articles:

  • The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the US population will grow from 342mm in 2024 to 383mm in 2054, an average 0.4% a year — less than half the 0.9% pace of the prior five decades. Immigration accounts for about 70% of growth over the next decade and for all population growth beginning in 2040.
  • New Immigration Estimates Help Make Sense Of The Pace Of Employment — The Congressional Budget Office estimates net immigration was 3.3m in 2023, versus the 1m it had projected, implying faster population and labor force growth than currently reported. The authors estimate this raised real economic growth by about 0.1 percentage point and, by lifting both production and demand, added little price or wage pressure.
  • Without Immigrants, US Working-Age Population Would Shrink — All net US employment growth since early 2020 has been among foreign-born workers, and without immigration the US working-age population would be shrinking — a pattern likely to persist for the rest of the decade. The jump in immigration appears to be enabling a soft landing that most economists had thought impossible.
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