Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Industrial robot repeatability improved little between 1972 and 1984, with a typical 1-meter reach, 10kg payload arm accurate to about 1 mm in both years, but a comparable 2023 robot achieves roughly 0.01–0.02 mm, 50 to 100x more precise. Such a robot cost 2 to 3x more in the 1980s than today, before accounting for cheap Chinese robot arms.

Brian Potter Construction Physics
Date Posted:

Since the 1980s industrial robot costs have fallen substantially while their precision has increased; controlling for size robot cost has decreased by 50-66% while simultaneously getting 50-100x more precise. @_brianpotter

How much have industrial robots improved in precision and cost?

Core argument: A 1-meter reach, 10kg payload robot averaged roughly 1 mm repeatability in both 1972 and 1984, with wide variation, as some 1984 models evidently achieved 0.1 mm.

The 1984 robots are not that much more repeatable than the 1972 robots. Our 1-meter reach, 10kg payload robot would on average have a repeatability of around 1 mm in both years (with a lot of variation, as some 1984 robots could evidently achieve 0.1mm of repeatability). But since then, there’s been a huge improvement. Our 2023 1-meter reach, 10kg payload robot will have a repeatability closer to 0.01 or 0.02 millimeters, or 50 to 100 times more precise than the robots in the 70s and 80s. Overall, robots have fallen substantially in cost since the 1980s, while simultaneously getting more precise. A robot with a 1-meter reach and 10 kg payload capacity would cost anywhere from 2 to 3 times as much in the 1980s as it does today, even before considering the rise of cheap Chinese robot arms, which seem poised to make prices fall even more.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A 1-meter reach, 10kg payload robot averaged roughly 1 mm repeatability in both 1972 and 1984, with wide variation, as some 1984 models evidently achieved 0.1 mm.
  2. A 1-meter reach, 10kg payload robot cost 2 to 3 times as much in the 1980s as it does today, before accounting for cheap Chinese robot arms that seem poised to push prices lower.

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  • Making Manufacturing Great Again — US manufacturing construction spending has more than doubled over the past year and risen as a share of gross domestic product, a surge attributed to two laws: the Inflation Reduction Act, whose core is green energy subsidies, and the CHIPS Act, which promotes domestic semiconductor production.
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