Edward Conard

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The Bernie Sanders Experiment for America’s Children

James Freeman Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
October 27, 2021
Is Database:
Database

Research suggests that some pre-K programs may be counterproductive to child development due to stress, raising concerns about the economic and developmental implications of expanding federal pre-K programs.

Research suggests that some pre-K programs may be counterproductive to child development due to stress, raising concerns...
Max Eden argues that some pre-K programs may be counterproductive to child development due to stress, as studies indicate higher levels of stress hormones in child-care environments compared to home settings, potentially impacting brain architecture. The Brookings Institution found sparse evidence on the long-term academic benefits of scaled-up pre-K programs, with some studies showing null or negative impacts. A Vanderbilt study revealed that while pre-K participants initially outperformed peers, they were surpassed by kindergarten and 3rd grade. The Quebec Family Policy, a similar universal child care model, showed negative outcomes in parenting practices and children's behavior, suggesting potential long-term harm. These findings raise concerns about the economic and developmental implications of expanding federal pre-K programs, urging policymakers to consider the substantial costs to future generations.

“..In February of this year Max Eden wrote for the Manhattan Institute that for some children pre-K programs are not even useless—they may cause genuine harm given how young the kids are when they are moved out of the household and into a new setting:These findings are consistent with—and likely partly explained by—recent advances in our understanding of neuroscience and child development. Studies suggest that many children exhibit higher levels of stress hormones—colloquially termed “toxic stress”—in child-care environments than they do at home, which could leave a lasting physical impact on their brain architecture…”

James Freeman, "The Bernie Sanders Experiment for America’s Children,"Wall Street Journal, October 26, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-bernie-sanders-experiment-for-americas-children-11635280881

The Bernie Sanders Experiment for America’s Children

The story of the Covid era is largely about a political class imposing one burden after another on the young for the theoretical benefit of the old, with little effort to conduct serious calculations of risks and costs. Kids who were never in great danger from the virus have been forced into isolation and quarantine, forced to suffer lost educational and cultural opportunities, and forced to accept an expanded federal debt burden that will haunt them through their taxpaying lives. Many children remain masked all day thanks to edicts from politicos with hardly a care for the long-term consequences to mental health or development.

Now we have Sen. Bernie Sanders (socialist, Vt.), who has been an elected official for nearly 40 years, preparing to add to the federal debt burden once again but claiming that his massive new program is for the children. Mr. Sanders is on the brink of achieving his dream of a federal universal pre-kindergarten program. No doubt it will be costly for taxpayers, but parents should not assume it will benefit their kids.

Like everything else in the pending reconciliation bill, the highly consequential details remain hidden from the public. Reporting on the back-room negotiations for the Democrats’ multitrillion-dollar plan, the Journal’s Andrew Duehren, Kristina Peterson and Natalie Andrews write that the next draft “is still set to include several party priorities, such as universal prekindergarten.” They add that according to a source, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) told House Democrats on Tuesday that Congress was on “the verge of something major.”

Let’s hope that sometime before enactment, Americans are able to learn what exactly that something is, given the enormity of the interventions Democrats are attempting into American life.

As for the pre-K plan, a New York Times report accurately described it as part of “a progressive dream for the nation’s education system.” Expanding government is the point. When critics point out disappointing results from various pre-K programs, advocates simply clarify that what they are building is “high-quality pre-K,” as if universal government programs are synonymous with high quality.

In 2017 the Brookings Institution assembled a task force of interdisciplinary scientists from various leading research universities to assess state-funded pre-K programs. The Brookings task force reported:

Convincing evidence on the longer-term impacts of scaled-up pre-k programs on academic outcomes and school progress is sparse, precluding broad conclusions. The evidence that does exist often shows that pre-k-induced improvements in learning are detectable during elementary school, but studies also reveal null or negative longer-term impacts for some programs.

In 2018 Early Childhood Research Quarterly published a paper by Vanderbilt researchers: “This study of the Tennessee Voluntary Pre-K Program (VPK) is the first randomized control trial of a state pre-k program.” The Vanderbilt team reported that while pre-K students in the program initially surpassed kids who didn’t go to pre-K across a battery of achievement tests, this advantage didn’t hold:

During the kindergarten year and thereafter, the control children caught up with the pre-k participants on those tests and generally surpassed them. Similar results appeared on the 3rd grade state achievement tests for the full randomized sample - pre-k participants did not perform as well as the control children.

In February of this year Max Eden wrote for the Manhattan Institute that for some children pre-K programs are not even useless—they may cause genuine harm given how young the kids are when they are moved out of the household and into a new setting:

These findings are consistent with—and likely partly explained by—recent advances in our understanding of neuroscience and child development. Studies suggest that many children exhibit higher levels of stress hormones—colloquially termed “toxic stress”—in child-care environments than they do at home, which could leave a lasting physical impact on their brain architecture.
Such concerns may not necessarily deter Mr. Sanders given his ideological commitment to central planning. Pre-K is just one part of a larger plan for the federal government to be involved in child care from the earliest ages. But voters may want to urge their elected representatives to pause before initiating this Sanders revolution.

Mr. Eden writes:

The most representative and rigorous research on early childhood interventions does not suggest that additional investment would yield great benefits. Indeed, it provides good reason to believe that the opposite is true: additional investment may come at a substantial cost to the next generation.

The Quebec Family Policy provides the closest analogue to what we might expect if America were to make a similar commitment to universal child care. For children in two-parent households, the results were rather grim: deterioration in parenting practices, deterioration in children’s behavior, and long-term harm to their health and life satisfaction.

  • Education
    • K-12
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Previous articleOctober 26, 2021Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel and Cecilia Jona-LasinioAI investments have not translated into sustained TFP growth post-financial crisis, despite significant unmeasured investment in AI-related intangible assets. @CarolCorradoNext articleOctober 27, 2021American tech firms are repatriating billions in offshore profitsDomestic profit share of 20 large American tech firms surged from 40% in 2019 to 56% in 2020, driven largely by repatriation efforts.
Showing 56 database articles primarily about Education

To Fix Education, Fix The Economy First

John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
Date Posted:
August 7, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Using OECD skills data and the Luxembourg Income Study, Burn-Murdoch finds US workers at the lowest levels of literacy and numeracy earn ~ on par with British workers scoring a 2, ~ a mean score.

30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old. The same proportion of US workers who score stunningly low on literacy earn an average of almost $30 per hour, and two-thirds of them are in work. Their British counterparts make the equivalent of $20 and fewer than half are employed. This all looks more like the fruits of years of stronger growth than vocational education policy. We should view education as creating potential that a strong economy unleashes (and a weak one disappoints).

Related Articles:

  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Toward An Understanding Of The Returns To Cognitive Skills Across Cohorts — Wage returns to cognitive skill have declined for white men who took the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) in 1997 relative to 1979, driven primarily by a…
  • Cognitive Skills Beyond Childhood — Data from a British birth cohort followed since 1958 show that cognitive skills early in life predict wages at age 50 better than cognitive skills at age 50…
  • Education
    • Test Scores
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    • Inequality
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Meritocracy and the Networks It Forged: China’s Imperial Examination

Ying Bai and Ruixue Jia National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
August 3, 2026
Is Database:
Database

From 1644–1905, Qing China staffed its bureaucracy through exams and patronage. Only 12.6% of exam graduates reached top office, but patronage favored stronger performers, illustrating how merit and connections can be complements rather than substitutes.

Figure 5 studies the interplay between merit and networks by estimating the effects of exam performance and ties to powerful examiners separately for the high- and low-performing categories. The left panel shows the effects of exam performance for the two categories, while the right panel presents those of examiner power. Two patterns stand out. First, exam performance matters more for the high category, consistent with the institutional design that steered this elite group toward more prestigious careers. Second, ties to powerful examiners are also more valuable for the high category, pointing to a complementarity between merit and networks. To understand the implications of our finding on complementarity, it is useful to contrast it with the counterfactual of substitution. When merit and networks are complements (rather than substitutes), those who attained top office tend to exhibit both stronger exam performance and stronger connections. By contrast, under substitution, strong networks would compensate for weaker exam performance, and vice versa. Complementarity implies [a higher degree of meritocracy than substitution, as] successful candidates appear to have had better performance. Second, complementarity makes it harder to identify the influence of networks: their effects can operate under the guise of merit rather than as a visible substitute for it.

Related Articles:

  • Elite Strategies for Big Shocks: The Case of the Fall of the Ming — Carol Shiue and Wolfgang Keller find that descendants of elites that lost status after the fall of the Ming Dynasty in 1644 regained elite status in subsequent…
  • The Inheritance Of Social Status: England, 1600 to 2022 — Gregory Clark @PNASNews finds that social status in England was strongly correlated across generations between 1600 and 2022, consistent with a theory of…
  • For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 Shows Genetics Determines Most Social Outcomes — Research by @GregoryClark indicates that social outcomes in the UK are largely predetermined by birth, driven by highly assortative mating around status…
  • Education
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    • Mobility/Assortative Mating

The Returns to Education: A Meta-Study

Gregory Clark and Christian Alexander Abildgaard Nielsen Kyklos
Date Posted:
February 11, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Clark and Nielsen replicate the ~8% estimates of the return to education obtained by standard methods, but find evidence of selection biases in favor of high estimated returns. After correcting for these biases, they calculate returns on the order of 3%.

In this meta-study of 79 estimates of the causal effects of education on earnings (derived from increases of the mandated school-leaving age or legislation banning child labor under certain ages), we report a similar effect to [the classic] earlier study (Ashenfelter, et al): an 8.2% gain in earnings for each year of education. We also find clear evidence of significant publication biases. Studies passing the filter of publication were more likely to have coefficients statistically significantly greater than 0, and we observe strong evidence that studies with returns estimated at less than 0 were more difficult to publish. There is strong suggestive evidence of the first publication bias in the data. Figure 6 shows that the average estimated return rises substantially where the standard error is larger. This suggests a greater likelihood of an estimate being published when it was statistically significantly different from 0. If all estimates were published independent of the estimated return, we would not expect there to be such a gradient. Correcting the first publication bias by looking at the average return on the studies with the lowest standard errors would suggest an average causal return to education of no more than 3%, compared to the reported 8.2%. Independent of this, correcting for the omission of returns less than 0 implies an overall causal return to education only in the 0%–3% range.

Related Articles:

  • Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges — Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the…
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • Education
    • Test Scores
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Marginal Admission to Elite High Schools: Long-run Effects on Labor Market Outcomes

Francisco Cabrera-Hernández, Andrew Dustan, Daniel Osuna Gomez and María Padilla-Romo National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
January 22, 2026
Is Database:
Database

In data from the Mexico City metro area over 2003–2009, students who just missed the exam score cutoff for admission to an elite high school have 5.3% higher wages after five years (2.5% after 10 years) than marginally admitted students.

[We] trace out the [harmful] causal impact of [marginal] assignment to an elite school [as opposed to just missing the admissions cutoff] on formal private labor market outcomes over time. Five years after the assignment process (at ages 19-20, beyond high school age), elite assignment [based on a test score marginally above the cutoff] causes a 3.2pp decline in the probability of ever having held a formal job. This is a 16% decline relative to the base rate of 20% for students missing the elite cutoff by one point. Over time, this elite disadvantage declines: after 10 years (at ages 24-25, after the typical age of college graduation), the effect is -2.1pp, while after 15 years (at ages 29-30) the estimated -0.2pp impact is statistically insignificant. While the negative effect on formal employment eventually fades, it leaves elite students with a deficit in formal labor market experience. After 5 years, elite assignment reduces the cumulative number of months with a formal job by 14%. Conditional on formal employment, marginal elite assignment causes a reduction in wages that fades out over time. Five years after assignment, elite assignment reduces wages by 5.3%. This reduction declines to 2.6% after 10 years, and [essentially vanishes] after 15 years.

Related Articles:

  • Marginal Returns to Public Universities — Data from public universities in Texas show students whose test scores marginally qualify for their target 4-year state college have higher educational…
  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — .@OppInsights finds that the “Ivy-Plus” (Ivy League, plus UChicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford) admit students from the highest income families scoring in the top 1%…
  • Are China’s Students Really Number One? A Statistical Riddle — The sharp rise in China’s PISA scores btw 2015 and 2018 coincided with “peculiar changes to the roster of provinces representing China,” further…
  • Education
    • College
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Plunging US Birth Rate Leaves Too Many Colleges With Too Few Kids

Elizabeth Rembert, Amanda Albright and Marie Patino Bloomberg
Date Posted:
January 16, 2026
Is Database:
Database

As America’s demographics roll over, smaller public and private liberal arts colleges have “already hit the precipice.” Btw 2003 and 2024, more than 100 public campuses closed, and ~ 2/3 of private for-profit colleges have shut down since the 2010s.

The country’s tumbling birth rate is pushing schools toward a “demographic cliff,” where a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s will leave desks and classrooms empty. Many smaller, lesser-known schools have already hit the precipice. They’re firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM — or closing altogether. Others will likely reach the cliff in the next few years. Although it has plunged since the 1950s, the US birth rate ticked upward slightly before the 2008 financial crisis, and that brief demographic boost has kept enrollment at larger schools afloat. But the nationwide pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025. The financial pressure will be relentless. “If colleges were facing a stark decline in one or two cohorts, higher ed could likely say, ‘Well, we could admit a few additional students and tighten our belts to muddle through,’” said Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota, who has written books about education and demographics. “But it’s one year after another of contraction, of ratcheting up the pressure.”

Related Articles:

  • Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment — First-time undergraduate enrollment in public 4-year colleges has ~ doubled since 1990. In public 2-year and for-profit institutions, enrollment has ~ halved…
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Changes in the College Mobility Pipeline Since 1900 — Enrollment in teaching colleges instead of increasingly valued research universities and moves out of computer science and engineering led students with…
  • Education
    • College
    • Test Scores
  • Workforce
    • Demographics

How Mississippi Transformed Its Schools From Worst to Best

Sarah Mervosh New York Times
Date Posted:
January 13, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Controlling for poverty and demographics, Mississippi has the best outcomes for fourth-grade reading and math, and is near the top in eighth-grade scores. In absolute terms, “eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math.”

Controlling for poverty and demographics, Mississippi has the best outcomes for fourth-grade reading and math, and is near...
Adjusted for poverty and other student demographics, Mississippi is No. 1 for fourth grade reading and math, and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute. Mississippi’s gains have been confined mostly to the early years, where the state has focused its efforts. The system revolves around standardized testing, and the gains have not always persisted. By raw scores, Mississippi eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math. The state pushed through a vast list of other changes from the top down, including changing the way reading is taught, in an approach known as the science of reading, but also embracing contentious school accountability policies other states have backed away from. Unlike No Child Left Behind, the Bush-era federal law that set a goal of having every child in America be proficient in reading and math, Mississippi also measures how much students progress toward proficiency. Schools get credit if students show improvement — and double credit for the improvement of students in the bottom 25%.

Related Articles:

  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The 2024 NAEP results show that 40% of fourth graders are “below basic” in reading proficiency, relative to 30% who are “at or above proficient.” 39% of…
  • Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low — New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the…
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Education
    • K-12
    • Test Scores
  • Workforce
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