“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute

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Growth through Rigidity: An Explanation for the Rise in CEO Pay

Richard Townsend National Bureau of Economic Research

Date Posted:: February 17, 2016
Is Database:: Database

Research by @RichardTownsend finds CEO pay has increased due to firms granting consistent stock options, whose value has risen with firm equity returns, averaging 30% annually during the Tech Boom.

Since the 1990s, CEO pay has increased significantly due to firms granting a consistent number of stock options, whose value has risen with firm equity returns, averaging 30% annually during the Tech Boom. This rigidity in the number of shares granted, coupled with downward nominal rigidity in salary and bonuses, has led to a rise in executive compensation. The phenomenon explains the increased pay dispersion across firms, the disparity in growth rates between the US and other countries, and the heightened correlation between pay and firm-specific equity returns. Regulatory changes mandating disclosure of option grant values contributed to a moderation in executive pay in the late 2000s. Additionally, evidence suggests that number-rigidity in executive pay is influenced by money illusion and reference-dependent motivation.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

CEO pay has risen since the 1990s as firms grant a rigid number of stock options whose value tracks firm equity returns, which averaged 30% annually during the Tech Boom.
Number-rigidity in option grants, combined with downward nominal rigidity in salary and bonuses, is offered as an explanation for rising pay dispersion across firms, faster US pay growth than in other countries, and a stronger link between pay and firm-specific equity returns.
Regulatory changes requiring disclosure of option grant values contributed to a moderation in executive pay in the late 2000s, and evidence suggests number-rigidity in executive pay is influenced by money illusion and reference-dependent motivation.

New paper on executive compensation. Short tack, all the increase in CEO pay since the 1990's function of firms granted same # of options (whose value has gone up) check out Figure 4 "Executive Compensation Over Time"

"...In this paper, we explore a rigidity-based explanation of the dramatic and off-trend growth in US executive compensation during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Weshow that executive option and stock grants are rigid in the number of shares granted.In addition, salary and bonus exhibit downward nominal rigidity.Rigidity implies that the value of executive pay will grow with firm equity returns, which averaged 30% annually during the Tech Boom. Rigidity also explains the increased dispersion in pay across firms, the difference in growth rates between the US and other countries, and the increased correlation between pay and firm-specific equity returns. Regulatory changes requiring the disclosure of the value of option grants help explain the moderation in executive pay in the late 2000s.Finally, we find suggestive evidence that number-rigidity in executive pay is generated by money illusion and reference-dependent motivation..."

Kelly Shue and Richard Townsend, "Growth through Rigidity: An Explanation for the Rise in CEO Pay,"National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2016, http://www.nber.org/papers/w21975

Not Tech, Not Wall Street

Torsten Sløk Apollo

Date Posted:: September 21, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

More than half the increase in the top 1% income share since 1985 flowed through pass-through businesses to ~ 3mm private business owners with a mean net worth of ~$25mm.

The income that lifted America's top 1% did not come mainly from tech or Wall Street, according to Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick. More than half of the rise in the top 1% income share since 1985, 5.8 of 10.5 percentage points, flowed through pass-through businesses. Zidar and Zwick, counted roughly 3 million wealthy private business owners, with average net worth near $25 million, running law firms, car dealerships, medical practices, commercial contractors and regional restaurant chains, the kind of businesses that make their owners wealthy and well known in their own communities without ever making them nationally famous.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Owen Zidar and Eric Zwick find that 5.8 of the 10.5 percentage-point rise in the U.S. top 1% income share since 1985 flowed through pass-through businesses, more than half of the increase.
Zidar and Zwick count roughly 3 million wealthy private business owners with average net worth near $25 million, running law firms, car dealerships, medical practices, commercial contractors and regional restaurant chains.
The income that lifted America’s top 1% did not come mainly from tech or Wall Street, according to Zidar and Zwick, but from businesses whose owners are well known locally without becoming nationally famous.

Family Income Continues to Grow in 2025 Data

Jeremy Horpedahl Economist Writing Every Day

Date Posted:: September 17, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

In 1967, just 5.5% of American families had an inflation adjusted income of $150,000 or more. In 2025, 35.7% did. During that timeframe, the share of families with a real income less than $75,000 declined from 63.4% to 32.8%.

In 1967 there were fewer than 3 million families with incomes over $150,000 (in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars). By 2025, that had grown to over 31 million families. If we look at the highest income threshold in this Census data — over $200,000 — the number of families has grown from just 1 million in 1967 to over 20 million in 2025. And there are fewer lower-income families too: the number of families under $75,000 shrunk, not just as a proportion of the total but even in absolute terms by almost 3 million families from 1967 to 2025. Of course, some of these families do have more earners than in 1967, though we shouldn’t overstate that too much. Using other data from Census, we can see that the share of families with multiple earners hasn’t increased much since 1967, and especially hasn’t since the mid-1990s.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The number of U.S. families with incomes above $150,000 in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars rose from fewer than 3 million in 1967 to over 31 million in 2025, according to Census data.
Families earning over $200,000, the highest income threshold in the Census data, grew from about 1 million in 1967 to over 20 million in 2025.
Families with incomes under $75,000 declined by almost 3 million in absolute terms from 1967 to 2025, while Census data show the share of families with multiple earners has not increased much since 1967, and especially not since the mid-1990s.

Income in the United States: 2025

Melissa Kollar and Zach Scherer U.S. Census Bureau

Date Posted:: September 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Real US median household income increased 2.6% year over year in 2025 to a record high of $87,460.

In 2025, median household income was $87,460, an increase of 2.6% from the 2024 estimate of $85,210. Household income in 2025 was the highest on record dating back to 1967. For all demographic characteristics of the householder the median household income estimates in 2025 were either higher than the 2024 estimates or were not statistically different from 2024. Median household income increased by 3% for White households, 2.9% for non-Hispanic White households, and 4.8% for Black households. Median income did not change significantly for Asian or Hispanic households.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Median U.S. household income reached $87,460 in 2025, up 2.6% from $85,210 in 2024 and the highest on record in data dating back to 1967.
Median household income rose 4.8% for Black households, 3% for White households, and 2.9% for non-Hispanic White households in 2025, while Asian and Hispanic households saw no statistically significant change.
Across all demographic characteristics of the householder, 2025 median household income estimates were either higher than or not statistically different from 2024 estimates.

Sticky Wage Norms and the Real Wage Cost of Unexpected Inflation

Erik Hurst, Christina Patterson, Nela Richardson, and Ye Liv Wang University of Chicago

Date Posted:: September 10, 2026
Is Database:: Database

ADP microdata from 2016–25 suggest firms set wages according to “wage norms” ~ invariant to inflation. The 2020–21 inflation surge mechanically reduced real wages. By the end of 2025, 34% of incumbent workers’ real wages were lower than in 2020.

Roughly 42% of all nominal wage increases below 6% were within 0.01 percentage points of a whole or half number [Figure 6]. Figure 9 plots the employment-weighted average modal wage change across firms (solid line) alongside inflation rate (dashed line) from 2016 through 2025. In the pre-pandemic period, firm-level wage rules were relatively stable at a median of 2.7%, modestly above the rate of inflation. Beginning in 2021, inflation rose sharply, peaking at approximately seven percent in 2022. The average modal wage change also rose, reaching a peak of 3.5% in 2022 and 2023. By 2025, the median firm had a wage rule granting increases of three percent, roughly in line with inflation. The stickiness of firms’ wage rules in the face of inflationary pressure contributed to the systematic fall in real wages for job stayers. Evidence from Belgium [which has strong wage indexation], suggests that declining real wages, rather than inflation itself, helps explain the persistence of depressed consumer sentiment during the 2021–2024 period.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Roughly 42% of all nominal wage increases below 6% fell within 0.01 percentage points of a whole or half number.
Firm-level wage rules held near a median of 2.7% before the pandemic, and the employment-weighted average modal wage change peaked at 3.5% in 2022 and 2023 while inflation peaked near 7% in 2022; by 2025 the median firm granted 3%.
The stickiness of firms' wage rules amid inflationary pressure contributed to a systematic fall in real wages for job stayers, and evidence from Belgium, which has strong wage indexation, suggests falling real wages rather than inflation helps explain depressed consumer sentiment in 2021–2024.

How Many Big Macs Does Your Salary Buy?

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: September 2, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

The Economist’s venerable Big Mac Index is indicative of significantly higher after-tax, PPP-adjusted wages for American workers than for their French and German counterparts.

On an annual basis, America continues to top our McWages rankings. The average American worker earns enough to buy 10,215 Big Macs a year; Switzerland and Australia are in second and third place, respectively. But American working hours are supersized, too. On an hourly basis, Switzerland comes out on top: the average worker there earns the equivalent of seven Big Macs an hour, compared with America’s six. Australia ranks third, at five burgers for every hour worked.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The average American worker earns enough to buy 10,215 Big Macs a year, topping the McWages rankings, with Switzerland second and Australia third.
On an hourly basis Switzerland leads, with the average worker earning the equivalent of seven Big Macs an hour, compared with six in the United States and five in Australia.
American working hours are longer, which shifts the United States from first place on annual McWages to second on an hourly basis.

US Focus: The Effect Of Soaring Profits

Abiel Reinhart J.P. Morgan

Date Posted:: September 1, 2026
Is Database:: Database

US corporate profit margins rose ~250bp y/y in Q2 and are approaching an all-time high. Reinhart notes that tech and communications services drove ~58% of recent S&P 500 profit growth, even as the sectors have been “steadily losing employment since late 2022.”

Nominal pre-tax corporate profits in the national income and product accounts (NIPA) were very robust in both 2Q (41% [annual rate]) and over the last year (23%). Excluding post-recession spikes, we haven’t seen a year this strong since the mid-2000s. Higher margins [were] the key driver [of profit growth], as 23% y/y domestic profit growth was far in excess of the 8% increase in corporate value added. Profit margins (pre-tax profits divided by value added) increased close to 250bp over the last year, and are approaching all-time highs, whereas the labor share is hitting new lows.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Higher margins were the key driver of profit growth, as 23% y/y domestic profit growth far exceeded the 8% rise in corporate value added.
Profit margins, measured as pre-tax profits divided by value added, increased close to 250bp over the last year and are approaching all-time highs, while the labor share is hitting new lows.

Research by @RichardTownsend finds CEO pay has increased due to firms granting consistent stock options, whose value has risen with firm equity returns, averaging 30% annually during the Tech Boom.

Does granting a fixed number of stock options explain rising CEO pay?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

More than half the increase in the top 1% income share since 1985 flowed through pass-through businesses to ~ 3mm private business owners with a mean net worth of ~$25mm.

Did most of the top 1% income gain come from private businesses?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

In 1967, just 5.5% of American families had an inflation adjusted income of $150,000 or more. In 2025, 35.7% did. During that timeframe, the share of families with a real income less than $75,000 declined from 63.4% to 32.8%.

Are more American families reaching higher inflation-adjusted income levels?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Real US median household income increased 2.6% year over year in 2025 to a record high of $87,460.

Has median U.S. household income reached its highest level on record?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

ADP microdata from 2016–25 suggest firms set wages according to “wage norms” ~ invariant to inflation. The 2020–21 inflation surge mechanically reduced real wages. By the end of 2025, 34% of incumbent workers’ real wages were lower than in 2020.

Do round-number wage rules cause real wages to fall during inflation?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

The Economist’s venerable Big Mac Index is indicative of significantly higher after-tax, PPP-adjusted wages for American workers than for their French and German counterparts.

Which country's workers can buy the most Big Macs?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

US corporate profit margins rose ~250bp y/y in Q2 and are approaching an all-time high. Reinhart notes that tech and communications services drove ~58% of recent S&P 500 profit growth, even as the sectors have been “steadily losing employment since late 2022.”

Are wider margins driving surging corporate profits as labor's share falls?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

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