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No evidence for cumulating socioeconomic advantage. Ability explains increasing SES effects with age on children's domain test scores

Gary Marks Intelligence
Date Posted:
October 7, 2021
Is Database:
Database

Research by @GaryMarks in @Intelligence finds SES effects on children’s test scores are minimal when net of parental & child’s abilities, indicating no cumulative socioeconomic advantage. This suggests SES impact is more genetic in origin.

Analysis of data from NLSY79 mothers' children (N ≈ 9000, Obs ≈ 27,000) reveals that while SES [socioeconomic status] effects on cognitive and achievement domains show small increases with age, these are largely explained by parental and prior abilities. Regression analyses indicate that SES effects do not increase with age when accounting for mother's ability, suggesting that observed SES effects are spurious. Mother's ability correlates at 0.26 with digit memory and between 0.4 and 0.5 with other domains, while SES correlates at 0.62 with mother's ability. The study concludes that SES effects on children's test scores are minimal when net of parental and child's abilities, indicating no cumulative socioeconomic advantage. This suggests that the perceived impact of SES is more genetic in origin, emphasizing the role of inherited cognitive abilities over environmental factors in educational outcomes.

Steady as she goes, "Studies that investigate the effects of socioeconomic background (SES) on student achievement tend to find stronger SES effects with age, although there is much inconsistency between studies. There is also a large academic literature on cumulative advantage arguing that SES inequalities increase as children age, a type of Matthew Effect. This study analysing data from the children of NLSY79 mothers (N ≈ 9000, Obs ≈ 27,000) investigates the relationship of SES by children's age for two cognitive domains (Peabody Picture Vocabulary test and digit span memory) and three achievement domains (reading comprehension, reading recognition and math). There are small increases in the SES-test score correlations for several domains, but there are more substantial increases in the test score correlations with mother's ability and prior ability. Regression analyses found linear increases in SES effects for all domains except digit memory. However, when considering mother's ability, the substantially reduced SES effects did not increase with children's age. Much of the effects of SES on children's domain scores are accounted for by mother's ability. The effects of prior ability also increase with age and SES effects are small. Therefore, there is no evidence for cumulative socioeconomic advantage for these domains. Generally, increases in SES effects on children's cognitive development and student achievement are likely to be spurious because of the importance of parents' abilities and their transmission from parents to children..."
Takeaway, "...The main conclusion from this study is that the increase in the SES effects on cognitive development and student achievement as children grow older observed in these data is spurious, confounded by parental and child's abilities. Increases in SES effects with age for some domains disappear with the inclusion of mother's ability and mother's ability age interaction terms, or with analogous measures of prior ability. Net of mother's and child's abilities, SES effects on children's test scores are small, so changes in its effects with age are unimportant..."
Evidence

“…Five childhood outcomes are investigated. Two are cognitive: the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) and the Wechsler digit memory span scores; and three are achievement measures: the Peabody Individual Achievement Tests (PIAT) for reading comprehension, reading recognition, and math. At ages 3 and 4, children were tested only by theppVT, at age 5 only by theppVT and PIAT math, and at age 6 in all domains but digit memory. From ages 7 to 12, children were tested in all domains, and from age 13 to 15 only in the two PIAT reading domains and PIAT math…Mother's cognitive ability is measured by AFQT score from parts of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery; a special survey administered in 1980 to NLSY79 respondents. The raw AFQT score in the NLSY79 data is the sum of scores in the arithmetic reasoning, word knowledge and paragraph comprehension subtests and one-half of the score in the numeric operations subtest…At ages 3 and 4 there were onlyppVT items, so the multiple-domain factor was the same as the single-domain factor. Between ages 7 and 12 when students were tested in all 5 domains, the variation accounted for by g increased from 25% to 37% consistent with the increasing heritability of cognitive ability with age. If theppVT and digit memory items are excluded, the percentage of variance explained by the principal factor increases by about 10 percentage points. Pooling all the data, mother's ability correlates at 0.26 with digit memory and between 0.4 and 0.5 with the other four domains. Cognitive ability, g, correlates most strongly withppVT scores (r = 0.78), most weakly with digit memory (r = 0.47) and between 0.66 and 0.73 with the other domains. Mother's ability and g correlate at 0.46 consistent with studies cited earlier that have reported intergenerational correlations for ability.Family SES correlates at 0.62 with mother's ability which is higher than Torres's estimate (Torres, 2013, p. 166). SES and g correlate at 0.41. The average correlation between ability and prior ability is 0.6 (Table A4). The correlations of ability and prior ability were generally higher at older ages (Table A5) again consistent with the increasing heritability of cognitive ability….”

Results

“…children's age for the five domains. TheppVT (blue diamond, solid line) and math (purple triangle, long-dash short-dash line) show the highest correlations and digit memory (red squares, dashed line), the lowest correlations. For reading comprehension (green star, dotted line) there is dramatic increase in the SES-achievement correlation with age. There are shallower increases in the correlations with age for theppVT and math. For reading recognition (brown circle, short-dash dot short-dash line) there is an anomalous correlation (0.44) at age 5 but for older ages the correlations are stable at around 0.35. The correlations between SES and digit memory decline from ages 7 to 9 and then increase. So even without considering mother's or child's ability, the evidence for cumulating socioeconomic inequalities is not unequivocable. Fig. 2 presents the correlations between mother's ability (AFQT) score and test scores. There is a substantial increase in the correlation between mother's ability and reading comprehension with children's age. The AFQT correlations with theppVT, math and reading recognition show clear but smaller increases. For digit memory, the correlations increase between ages 8 and 12. The LOESS curves show largely linear or curvilinear relationships. The correlations between prior ability and children's test scores show clear increases with age for all five domains (Fig. 3). For theppVT, there is an anomalous very large correlation at age 6 (≈0.7) and very low rapidly until age 10 and then stabilizes. The correlations between prior ability and digit memory are weaker but also show an increase with age…”
No evidence for cumulating socioeconomic advantage. Ability explains increasing SES effects with age on children's domain test scores: Extended Excerpt Image 1

Gary Marks and Michael O'Connell, "No evidence for cumulating socioeconomic advantage. Ability explains increasing SES effects with age on children's domain test scores,"Intelligence, September/October 2021, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289621000660

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Previous articleOctober 4, 2021Who Is Financing the Federal Government?The US federal government has sold $5.4tn in bills, notes, & bonds since 2019, with most borrowing self-financed. Fed, money-market funds, banks & state/local governments have been major buyers, with foreign demand rebounding to pre-pandemic levels.Next articleOctober 7, 2021Genetic and environmental contributions to IQ in adoptive and biological families with 30-year-old offspringA 1SD increase in parental environment quality boosts IQ by ~2.83 points, highlighting the economic benefits of investing in family environments. @MattMcGue
Showing 82 database articles primarily about Test Scores

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 25, 2026
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Database
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SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.

Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.

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  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
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The Lost Generation

Jacob Savage Compact Magazine
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
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Database
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Important

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and...
In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.

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  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • US PISA Results By Subpopulation — Breaking down the 2022 PISA math results by subpopulation, @cremieuxrecueil finds that US Asians and whites topped the charts, scoring on par with top…
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Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low

Matt Barnum Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 9, 2025
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Database
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New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.

American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

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  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The 2024 NAEP results show that 40% of fourth graders are “below basic” in reading proficiency, relative to 30% who are “at or above proficient.” 39% of…
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Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele Tine National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 18, 2025
Is Database:
Database
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Important

Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score

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  • Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges — Students at Ivy-Plus colleges with 99th percentile SAT/ACT scores earned a first-year college GPA 0.43 points higher than students who scored at the 75th…
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Can Gifted Education Help Higher-Ability Boys from Disadvantaged Backgrounds?

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 21, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Card et al, find that the 25-30 percentage point college enrollment gap between disadvantaged boys and girls with IQs of ~116 closed among students who qualified for a “gifted” program. @EricChyn

We study the effects of being identified as gifted in elementary school on subsequent test scores, courses and grades, and on the probability of entering college, for disadvantaged children in a large urban school district (“the District”). The law specifies a threshold of 130 [IQ] points for non-disadvantaged students, but allows districts to select a lower “Plan B” threshold [116 pts] for FRL and ELL students. The strict IQ threshold for gifted status provides the basis for a regression discontinuity (RD) evaluation of the impacts of being identified as gifted. Figure 6 illustrates how these impacts affect gender gaps by presenting the estimated mean potential outcomes for the complying boys (left side) and complying girls (right side) using an 8-point bandwidth. The estimated college entry rate for male compliers who narrowly miss the gifted threshold is 46%; the 28 ppt treatment effect of passing the threshold raises this to 74%, which equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold - being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys to the same rate as girls.

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  • Multidimensional Human Capital and the Wage Structure — The return to cognitive skills has declined since 2000 and there has been rising demand for “social skills.” “Jobs with the most employment and earnings growth…
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Covid Learning Losses

David Leonhardt New York Times
Date Posted:
February 12, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

.@DLeonhardt reports a sharp partisan gap in learning loss: 8 of the 10 states with the biggest math declines since 2019 – likely due to prolonged school closures – voted Democratic, while 8 of the 10 smallest shortfalls voted Republican.

Many public schools in heavily Democratic areas stayed closed for almost a year — from the spring of 2020 until the spring of 2021. In some Republican areas, by contrast, schools remained closed for only the spring of 2020. Eight of the 10 states that have lost the most ground since 2019 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections. And eight of the 10 states with the smallest math shortfalls voted Republican. [Higher initial scores don’t] explain the post-pandemic patterns. For example, New Jersey (a blue state) and Utah (a red state) both had high math scores in 2019, but New Jersey has fared much worse since then.

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