Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
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How to Fix Globalization—for Detroit, Not Davos

Larry Summers The American Interest
Date Posted:
May 25, 2020
Is Database:
Database

Regulation should support businesses prioritizing societal well-being, not just profit. Effective regulation can enable ethical businesses to compete fairly, balancing profit with broader societal values. @LHSummers, The American Interest.

Over the past two decades, globalization has disproportionately benefited elite circles, such as those in Davos, while neglecting industrial regions like Detroit. The focus on high-powered incentives, primarily profit-driven motives, has led to both economic growth and the exploitation of workers and consumers. In fiercely competitive markets, firms may resort to unethical practices to maintain market share, such as insufficient capital reserves or deceptive marketing. This underscores the need for regulation not as an anti-business measure but as a means to support businesses that prioritize societal well-being. Effective regulation can enable ethical businesses to compete fairly, ensuring that profit does not overshadow other societal values. The emphasis should shift from maximizing profit at all costs to fostering a balanced approach that benefits broader society.

"...LHS: Let’s take the global dimension first. We have done too much management of globalization for the benefit of those in Davos, and too little for the benefit of those in Detroit or Dusseldorf. Over the last two decades, better intellectual property protection for Mickey Mouse and Hollywood movies has been an A level economic issue. Better global tax cooperation, so that tech companies’ profits do not locate themselves in cyberspace and entirely escape taxation, has been a B-level issue….. More broadly, we need a reconsideration of what economists would call the role of high-powered incentives. The profit motive is a very positive thing. It drives businesses to be more efficient. It drives businesses to create new product. It drives economies forward. But profit can also be an incentive to the exploitation of workers. It can be an incentive to the exploitation of consumers. In a world where firms compete too ruthlessly for market share, if somebody cuts a corner, there can be overwhelming pressure for everyone to cut that corner in order to survive—whether it is maintaining insufficient capital in a financial institution, using a deceptive marketing practice that addicts customers, or producing in a way that is invisibly unsafe. So the case for regulation is not to be anti-business. Regulation needs to be supported because it enables the vast majority of businesses who want to do right by society to do so and still be able to compete. That’s how the case for regulation needs to be framed. We should not be waging jihad against business. We should be waging jihad against those who put profit ahead of every other value in the society. And that’s where in the emphasis on profit, we have gone a bit awry...."
Lawrence Summers, "How to Fix Globalization—for Detroit, Not Davos,"The American Interest, May 22, 2020, https://www.the-american-interest.com/2020/05/22/how-to-fix-globalization-for-detroit-not-davos/

Summers interview, he continues to bash the wealth tax but this is the most interesting bit

Ed Comment: “….Add to the data base as a contrary opinion. There are some insight here but then there are times when I think he goes off the rails. For example he says “Now we’re saying that we have to cut the taxes on those companies and cut the calculus class from your kid’s high school, because otherwise we won’t be able to attract companies to the United States, and you have to pay higher taxes and live with fewer services.” We have done nothing but expand government spending while holding or reducing middle class taxes. meanshwil we are being eating alive by retiring baby boomers, not tax cuts. Of course he says, “We have an economy where there’s a very strong propensity to save, in part because of redistribution towards those with high incomes…” Rognlie disproves that. “… in part because of uncertainty and demographic developments, and where because of what I call a broad “demassification” of the economy, there’s a much lower propensity to invest than was previously the case.” I think investment has shifted from capital investment whose prices have fallen faster than inflation. He scuffs at the idea of government on boards then says, “My advice to policymakers would be to focus maximum energy on public investment. That’s an agenda that will involve larger taxation” Why? because government has proven to be a much better investor that the private sector and therefore it’s worth diverting resources from the private sector to government? He proposes raising the capital gains tax. But let’s work the math. Let’s say investments earn 6%, with inflation at 2% and the tax rate is raised to 50% (mine is almost there now with NY at 12+% and no state deduction). 6% times 50% is 3% less 2% inflation is 1% real return after tax and inflation. Divided by 4% before taxes and after inflation (+6%-2%) is a 75% tax rate (=1%/4%). And that doesn’t include the corporate tax at 20%. So it’s really 7.5% x 20% = 6% etc. so it’s really 1/(7.5-2=5.5) is an 82% tax rate on investment returns. And he thinks it’s a good idea to raise it?! Come on. He depends on his audience not know how to work the math. And that doesn’t include 50% estate taxes or 5% to 8% sales taxes....”

  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Fiscal Deficits
    • Taxation
  • GDP
    • Savings Glut/Trade Deficit
    • Trade (not deficits)
  • Workforce
    • Inequality
Previous articleMay 25, 2020Penny-pinching consumers could spell trouble for recoveryUS personal savings rate may have surged to 20% of household income, driven by stable incomes & declining consumer spending. Will this caution persist as lockdowns ease?.Next articleMay 25, 2020Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First CenturyAging population projected to impact global economic balances, leading to a 63bps decline in US real interest rate. Demographic shift increases US wealth-to-GDP ratio by 35%pts, with Japan & India seeing 85%pts & 310%pts rises, respectively.
Showing 193 database articles primarily about Government Spending

The Fairest Way to Reform Social Security May Also Be the Worst Way to Grow the Economy

AI Summary. Raising payroll taxes to fix Social Security's funding gap preserves earned benefits but reduces take-home pay without added compensation, shrinking labor supply and slowing economic growth.

Andrew Biggs American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
May 28, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Biggs argues that “fair” approaches to restoring Social Security solvency – those that do not cut already accrued benefits – are less effective than “unfair” ones that do, because the latter incentivize increased work effort, raising growth and revenue.

Biggs argues that “fair” approaches to restoring Social Security solvency – those that do not cut already accrued...

Does preserving Social Security benefits require sacrificing economic growth?

Core argument: A 5.2 pts payroll tax increase to 17.6% drives reduced labor supply and slower economic growth vs. the status quo.

Imagine that Social Security reform follows the fairness model, in which accrued benefits are paid in full but the rate at which future benefits are earned is reduced. A simple way to do this is to increase the payroll tax rate To keep Social Security permanently solvent, meaning through 75 years and beyond, would require an immediate and permanent increase in the payroll tax rate [from] 12.4% to 17.6%. The higher rate would decrease labor supply and reduce economic growth. [Consider] an alternate reform, which looks clearly unfair: fix Social Security’s funding gap entirely by reducing accrued benefits that Americans already have earned. As of 2025, Americans had accrued $54 trillion in Social Security benefits. Social Security’s unfunded obligation as of 2025 was $26 trillion. So, roughly, this means cutting Americans’ “earned benefits” in half. [Analyzing the 1977 reform that undid the notorious 1972 “double-indexing” of benefits, a group of economists], using SSA earnings data, found that, for every dollar of lost benefits, the affected Americans increased their earnings by 61 cents. Moreover, these additional earnings would be taxed by Social Security, further strengthening the program’s finances. In effect, this makes cutting benefits a “cheaper” way to fix Social Security than raising taxes, because people respond in ways that also increase tax revenues.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A 5.2 pts payroll tax increase to 17.6% drives reduced labor supply and slower economic growth vs. the status quo.
  2. $54 trillion in accrued Social Security benefits vs. the unfunded obligation reveals that benefit cuts would reduce growth drag but.

Related Articles:

  • Social Security and Trends in Wealth Inequality — .@sc_cath @mjmill611 and @NatashaRSarin calculate that the market value of future Social Security benefits represented 49% of the wealth of the bottom 90% in…
  • How Federal Spending is Distributed by Age — Retirees receive 62 cents of every age-assignable federal dollar, driven primarily by Social Security and Medicare, which together account for 80% of all federal spending directed at adults over 65.
  • The Great “Transfer”-mation — Transfer payments made up 18% of all US personal income in 2022, up from 8% in 1970. Social Security/Medicare made up 56% of the increase from 1970 to 2022…
  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Fiscal Deficits
    • Taxation

The World’s Most Surprising Capitalist Makeover Is Under Way in Sweden

AI Summary. Sweden has privatized nearly half of primary healthcare and one in three public high schools, shrinking public social spending to 24% of GDP — comparable to the U.S. and well below France and Italy — while projecting ~2% annual growth through 2030, double the rate of France and Germany.

Tom Fairless Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
May 12, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Swedish public social spending is now 23.7% of GDP, just 1pp above that of the US and well under France’s 31.6%. Market-based reforms in the 1990s brought overall government spending down from 69.4% to 49.3% in 2024.

How is Sweden's shift to privatization impacting its economic growth?

Core argument: Sweden’s public social spending fell to 24% of GDP, matching the U.S. and 6+ pts below France/Italy, driving lower taxes.

For decades, Sweden was shorthand for the brand of high-tax, high-spend government that managed people’s lives from cradle to grave through state-run hospitals, schools and care homes. No longer. With little fanfare, this Nordic country of 11 million has embraced capitalism. Today, nearly half of primary healthcare clinics are privately owned, many by private-equity firms. One in three public high schools is privately run, up from 20% in 2011. School operators are listed on the stock exchange. The capitalist makeover has allowed Sweden to do what few industrialized countries have managed in recent years: shrink the size of the state. That has enabled the government to sharply lower taxes and, economists say, sparked a surge in entrepreneurship and economic growth. Its total public social spending bill—which includes healthcare, education and all welfare payments—has fallen to 24% of gross domestic product, similar to the U.S. and well below the over 30% for nations like France and Italy. Sweden’s economy is expected to grow by around 2% a year through 2030, roughly the same pace as the U.S. and double the growth rates of France and Germany, according to an April forecast by the International Monetary Fund.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Sweden’s public social spending fell to 24% of GDP, matching the U.S. and 6+ pts below France/Italy, driving lower taxes.
  2. Privately-run primary healthcare clinics reached nearly 50% of the market vs. 20% for high schools in 2011, demonstrating accelerating privatization.
  3. Sweden’s projected 2% annual GDP growth through 2030 doubles France and Germany’s rates, resulting from state downsizing and capitalist sector.

Related Articles:

  • How Sweden Overcame Socialism — Sweden’s market reforms: Govt spend cut 70% to <50% GDP, debt 80% to 41%, corp tax -6pts to 22%. Results: Growth +1pt vs EU since 1995, GDP/capita now at…
  • Reforming the Welfare State: Recovery and Beyond in Sweden — Sweden’s structural reforms, initiated in response to the 1990s crisis, included adopting flexible exchange rates & inflation targeting, leading to…
  • The US Has One of the Highest Fertility Rates Among Peer Countries — As of 2022, the US had a “tempo fertility rate,” which is adjusted for life-cycle effects, of 1.82 – among the highest of advanced economies, and ~ on…
  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Fiscal Deficits
  • Politics

How Policy and Demographics Are Reshaping SNAP: From Families with Children to Older Adults

AI Summary. SNAP enrollment has doubled from 6% to 12% of the U.S. population since 2000, with real costs per capita rising 179% to $279 annually, driven by policy expansions and benefit increases that prevent costs from fully retreating after economic downturns.

Angela Rachidi American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
May 1, 2026
Is Database:
Database

About 40mm Americans, 12% of the population, receive SNAP benefits, up from 6% in 2000. In 2023, only 34% of these households included children, down from 49% in 2010, while 36% contained an elderly person, up from 16% in FY2010.

How Are Policy Changes and Demographic Shifts Impacting SNAP Enrollment?

Core argument: SNAP participation doubled from 6% to 12% of the population between FY2000–FY2025, driven by policy expansions and demographic shifts outpacing.

Comparing FY2000 with FY2025, the share of the population receiving SNAP doubled from 6% to 12%, while real SNAP costs per capita increased by 179%—from roughly $100 per year to $279 (in 2024 dollars). Despite this growth, per capita participation and costs in FY2025 remained below their pre-pandemic peak in 2013, which coincided with the aftermath of the Great Recession and changes in eligibility and other policies stemming from the 2008 Farm Bill. SNAP is countercyclical, meaning that all else equal, the number of people receiving SNAP should rise during recessions because of increased unemployment and decline as the economy recovers, [though] overall SNAP participation has grown faster than changes in the unemployment rate alone would predict. Over the long run, and especially since FY2020 (due to the Thrifty Food Plan’s increase in the maximum SNAP benefit), costs per capita have not returned to prerecession levels after a period of high unemployment. In FY2023, the share of SNAP households containing an elderly person (36%) exceeded the share containing a child (34%) for the first time. This was a sharp departure from the early 2000s, when more than half of SNAP households contained a child and less than 20% included an elderly person (Figure 2).

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. SNAP participation doubled from 6% to 12% of the population between FY2000–FY2025, driven by policy expansions and demographic shifts outpacing.
  2. Real per capita SNAP costs rose 179% from $100 to $279 (2024 dollars) over 25 years, with the Thrifty Food.
  3. FY2025 SNAP enrollment remains 8–12% below the FY2013 peak despite 25-year growth, indicating countercyclical policy design successfully targets recession-driven need.

Related Articles:

  • The Great “Transfer”-mation — Transfer payments made up 18% of all US personal income in 2022, up from 8% in 1970. Social Security/Medicare made up 56% of the increase from 1970 to 2022…
  • Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023 — Btw 1939 and 1963, the % of Americans below LBJ’s absolute poverty line (3× the cost of a minimal meal plan), fell from 48.5 to 19.5, driven by rising market…
  • Government Benefit Programs Already Do A Lot To Help Low Income Families — A 2-adult, 3-child US family with $20,000 of market income receives at least $61,000 in annual benefits and has $79,000 of disposable income. That same family…
  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Workforce
    • Poverty/Crime

Washington’s Growing Portfolio: Tracking U.S. Government Investments

AI Summary. The U.S. government has deployed $20.9bn across 16 direct equity deals, expanding beyond grants, loans, and tax incentives into direct ownership stakes. This approach has mobilized an additional $4.75bn in private co-investment alongside the government's positions.

Jonathan Hillman Council On Foreign Relations
Date Posted:
April 23, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Since January 2025, the USG has taken equity stakes totaling $20.9B in 16 American businesses. $8.6B, ~41% of the total, was invested in critical mineral miners and processors, while $8.9B, ~43% of the total, funded the government’s 10% stake in Intel.

Core argument: The U.S. government deployed $20.9bn in direct equity investments since January 2025, expanding beyond traditional grants and loans to drive.

Since January 2025, the U.S. government has invested $20.9 billion across sixteen deals involving direct ownership, broadening a toolkit that has traditionally focused on grants, loans, and tax incentives. The Department of Commerce has participated in six such deals, including taking a 10% stake in Intel. The Development Finance Corporation, the United States’ development bank, has executed three equity transactions in critical minerals, healthcare, and infrastructure. The Department of Defense leads the way with seven such deals. The U.S. government is also working with a range of partners and has mobilized an additional $4.75 billion in investment. Private co-investors include J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The U.S. government deployed $20.9bn in direct equity investments since January 2025, expanding beyond traditional grants and loans to drive.
  2. The Department of Defense leads with seven equity deals of the sixteen total, establishing direct ownership as a core national.
  3. Commerce Department’s 10% Intel stake exemplifies government equity participation in critical infrastructure, mobilizing private capital alongside public investment to strengthen.

Related Articles:

  • Industrial Policy and Economic Security — Chris Miller asks, “How much inefficiency should we swallow in exchange for the security of self-sufficiency?” He argues it’s “a tricky…
  • The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market — Defense spending played a major role in sustaining tight labor markets for low-skill workers following the Second World War. Drops in procurement spending…
  • Capital Is Making a Comeback — Btw 1985-2021 the capital intensity of the American economy was relatively flat as a rise in intangible investment was offset by a decline in tangible…
  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Politics
  • Productivity
    • Investment
  • Security

How Federal Spending is Distributed by Age

AI Summary. Retirees receive 62 cents of every age-assignable federal dollar, driven primarily by Social Security and Medicare, which together account for 80% of all federal spending directed at adults over 65.

Kent Smetters University of Pennsylvania
Date Posted:
April 2, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

In 2025, of the 62.5% of Federal spending that is age-assignable on a per-capita basis, US retirees aged 65+ were given $43,700, working-age adults 26–64 got $7,300, and children and young adults got $4,300.

Core argument: Federal spending heavily favors retirees, who receive 38.6 percent of total outlays through Social Security, Medicare, and related programs.

We trace spending items within 52 general spending categories, totalling $7T for the 2025 Fiscal Year. We are able to classify a total of $4.4T across three broad age categories and assign the remaining $2.6T to an all-ages residual. Retirees (adults age 65 and older) receive $2.7T, equal to 38.6% of total federal outlays and 61.9% of age-assignable spending. Working-age adults (ages 26-64) receive $1.2T (27.9% of age-assignable), and children and young adults (under age 26) receive $449B (10.3%). The dominance of the retiree category reflects two programs above all others: Social Security and Medicare. Social Security directs $1.3T to retirees, and Medicare sends $835B. Together, they account for 80% of all age-assignable spending on older adults. But the retiree total extends beyond these two entitlements. Federal employee retirement benefits ($169B), housing assistance for older households, Medicaid long-term-care spending, and VA medical care all contribute, making the federal budget more retiree-focused than a Social Security–only lens would suggest.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Federal spending heavily favors retirees, who receive 38.6 percent of total outlays through Social Security, Medicare, and related programs.
  2. Working-age adults and children combined receive less than half the spending directed to retirees despite representing larger population segments.
  3. Social Security and Medicare alone account for 80 percent of all federal spending on older Americans, dominating the retiree budget.

Related Articles:

  • The Great “Transfer”-mation — Transfer payments made up 18% of all US personal income in 2022, up from 8% in 1970. Social Security/Medicare made up 56% of the increase from 1970 to 2022…
  • France and Britain Are In Thrall To Pensioners — Since 1970, cumulative real income growth for pensioners in France and the UK has outpaced that of the workers who support them. French pensioners over the age…
  • The Budgetary Impact of the Abandonment of Federalism — John Cogan finds federal budget deficits are driven by items “originally considered to be the responsibility of state and local governments or private-sector…
  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Fiscal Deficits
  • Healthcare/Seniors
  • Workforce
    • Poverty/Crime

Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve?

David Cutler and Lev Klarnet Brookings Papers On Economic Activity
Date Posted:
March 30, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

In 2024, medical spending as a share of GDP was just above its 2010 level and 15% ($977B) below its 2010 forecast; 21% of the gap was due to technology, 24% to price reductions, and 11–27% to reforms such as prior authorization and higher deductibles.

Five factors are important in the slowdown in spending [Figure 16]. The first is technology-associated changes in health and site of care. These correspond to the subsequent innovations in our model. Together, technologies along these lines account for 21% of the overall cost slowdown and double that in Medicare. Second, long-run supply is more elastic than short-run supply, which lowers spending over time. This is particularly apparent in the impact of patent expiration for pharmaceuticals and in relative declines in imaging reimbursement. We estimate that greater long-run supply explains 6% of the spending slowdown. Third, a variety of market changes contribute to reduced and more elastic demand, including increased cost sharing paid by consumers, physicians not paid as much for using technologies, and insurers imposing restrictions on technology use - a rough guess is that these account for 11 to 27% of the spending slowdown. Fourth, the population is healthier in ways that reduce spending. This includes fewer hospitalizations for smoking-related conditions and reduced need for formal home health care. The birth rate has fallen as well, which reduces the need for care. We estimate improved population health explains 7% of the spending slowdown. A major component is slower price growth. Net of upcoding, we estimate lower price growth explains 24% of the spending slowdown.

Related Articles:

  • Sick as a Dog — Btw 1989 and 2019, US healthcare returns tracked the US tech sector’s returns, albeit with lower volatility. Since 2020, healthcare returns have stagnated as…
  • Saved by Medicaid: New Evidence on Health Insurance and Mortality from the Universe of Low-Income Adults — Exploiting state-level variation in the timing and adoption of Medicaid expansions, Wyse and Meyer infer that the mortality hazard of new enrollees (the…
  • The Great “Transfer”-mation — Transfer payments made up 18% of all US personal income in 2022, up from 8% in 1970. Social Security/Medicare made up 56% of the increase from 1970 to 2022…
  • Government Spending
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Fiscal Deficits
  • Healthcare/Seniors
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