Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Continued outperformance by US stocks is plausible because the US is positioned to capture a sizeable share of productivity gains from technologies such as artificial intelligence, while a moderating global economy would weigh on more cyclically oriented markets abroad. One study attributes 39% of 15-year equity returns to domestic economic performance.

Rebecca Patterson Financial Times
Date Posted:
Is Database:
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Rebecca Patterson argues US equity outperformance is likely to continue as US firms are positioned to capture a sizable share of productivity benefits from new technologies like AI, and the US is likely to experience stronger relative economic growth.

Will US stocks keep outperforming foreign markets?

Core argument: A 2011 study by Clifford Asness, Roni Israelov and John Liew suggests 39% of 15-year equity returns can be explained by domestic economic performance, consistent with the finding that domestic growth dominates local equity returns over multi-year periods.

American equity exceptionalism is possible, for at least two reasons. First, the US is set to capture a sizeable share of productivity benefits from technology such as artificial intelligence. Second, a moderating global economy could work against more cyclically biased equity markets overseas, favouring those geared towards organic growth drivers. Over multi-year periods, domestic growth has been found to dominate local equity returns. A 2011 study by Clifford Asness, Roni Israelov and John Liew suggests that 39% of 15-year returns could be explained by domestic economic performance. Growth is fundamentally a function of labour and productivity. Given that most of the developed world (and China) faces at least directionally similar labour constraints, the US seems likely to be a relative growth winner thanks to prospects for greater productivity gains.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A 2011 study by Clifford Asness, Roni Israelov and John Liew suggests 39% of 15-year equity returns can be explained by domestic economic performance, consistent with the finding that domestic growth dominates local equity returns over multi-year periods.
  2. The case for continued American equity exceptionalism rests on the US capturing a sizeable share of productivity benefits from technology such as artificial intelligence, and on a moderating global economy working against more cyclically biased overseas equity markets.
  3. With most of the developed world and China facing at least directionally similar labour constraints, the US seems likely to be a relative growth winner thanks to prospects for greater productivity gains.

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  • Most Global Economies Remain in Disequilibrium, Requiring Policy Action — An investment framework holds that markets and economies are driven by three equilibriums — spending in line with output and capacity, incomes in line with debts, and normal risk premiums across assets — interacting with two policy levers, monetary and fiscal policy. When these conditions are absent, the resulting social, political, and business strains produce changes until equilibrium is restored.
  • Birth, Death, and Wealth Creation — The median age at which US companies went public rose from 7.9 years in 1976–2000 to 9.5 years in 2001–2022, implying that more wealth creation now occurs in private markets. Research on more than 28,000 US-listed companies since 1926 finds that just under 60% destroyed $9.1tn of wealth while about 2% created $50tn.
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