Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

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Why Democrats have trouble attacking the democratic socialism of Bernie Sanders

James Pethokoukis American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
February 26, 2020
Is Database:
Database

Real median weekly earnings for full-time workers have been reaching new highs, contradicting the narrative of wage stagnation. @JamesPethokoukis/AEI.

Real median weekly earnings for full-time workers have been reaching new highs, contradicting the narrative of wage stagnation. A JPMorgan analysis highlights that median household incomes have also increased, especially when adjusted for smaller household sizes. Over the past 30 years, there has been a 34% increase in purchasing power for typical workers, challenging the notion of stagnant wage growth. This data complicates Democratic critiques of Bernie Sanders' democratic socialism, as it suggests that American capitalism may not be failing workers as severely as claimed. Additionally, comparisons to Scandinavian models reveal differences such as the presence of billionaires and low corporate taxes, which further complicate the narrative. These economic insights highlight the difficulty Democrats face in attacking Sanders' policies without undermining their own positions on capitalism and economic growth.

:

James Pethokoukis, "Why Democrats have trouble attacking the democratic socialism of Bernie Sanders," American Enterprise Institute, February 25, 2020, https://www.aei.org/economics/why-democrats-have-trouble-attacking-the-democratic-socialism-of-bernie-sanders/

Why Democrats have trouble attacking the democratic socialism of Bernie Sanders

At the South Carolina debate tonight, Democratic presidential contenders may finally slam Bernie Sanders on his ambitious policy agenda and lifelong support of “democratic socialism.” Yet based on past debates, these attacks will merely be a slightly more energetic repetition of past criticisms. Bernie doesn’t have a plan to pay for his agenda. Bernie’s Medicare for All plan would turn off 160 million voters who like their private health insurance. And, now, Bernie said too many nice things about Fidel Castro.

If that’s the case, Sanders will likely be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. Those first two attacks haven’t really worked so far. And I am skeptical of the third. The Cuban Revolution was a long time ago. It’s as distant from today as it is from the Spanish-American War (which began after the USS Maine exploded in Havana Harbor in Cuba). Not sure of the resonance there with millennials.

Unfortunately for Sanders’ rivals, the evolution of Democratic politics and policy has made off-limits many more compelling arguments. While Sanders may not be a card-carrying Democrat, the party today doesn’t tell a story of modern America that is fundamentally any different than the one he tells: American capitalism has been badly failing workers since taxes were high and unions were strong in the postwar decades. And now we’re in Oligarchic Late Capitalism where economic failure has been joined with democratic failure. Billionaires are a policy failure, too. Big Tech is nothing more than a collection of monopolists exploiting our data. Greedy Silicon Valley. Greedy Wall Street. Greedy Big Oil. Greedy Big Pharma.

Take the issue of wage stagnation. Could Democrats even hint that Bernie is wrong, that there’s strong evidence showing wages, in fact, have not been flat for decades? As a JPMorgan analysis recently pointed out: “Real median weekly earnings for full-time workers have been hitting new highs, as have median household incomes, especially after adjusting for declines in household size.” This chart doesn’t fit the wage stagnation thesis:

Indeed, as my AEI colleague Michael Strain explains in The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It): “Wages for typical workers have not stagnated for decades. Typical workers have not worked for several decades without a pay increase. A 34 percent increase in purchasing power over the last 30 years is not reasonably described as stagnant growth.”

Why Democrats have trouble attacking the democratic socialism of Bernie Sanders: Extended Excerpt Image 1

Why Democrats have trouble attacking the democratic socialism of Bernie Sanders: Extended Excerpt Image 2


Or how about pointing out all the ways Scandinavia is nothing like the Bernie Sanders model? It has billionaires. And low corporate taxes. And plenty of co-pays and deductibles in its healthcare system. Could a Democrat make that case without accusations of being GOP-lite? Can a 2020 Democrats make an affirmative and unapologetic case for market capitalism? It will be interesting to see if Sanders’ rivals can work their way out of this political and policy puzzle.

  • Workforce
    • Wages/Income
Previous articleFebruary 24, 2020Trump’s ‘Blue-Collar Boom’ Is Hard to Detect in Some Wage DataLowest wage earners see sustained wage gains during sustained expansions, but not in periods of weak growth, according to @AlexandreTanzi @Bloomberg.Next articleFebruary 26, 2020Swedens Lessons for AmericaSweden’s economic history offers critical insights for the U.S. Despite perceptions, Sweden is not socialist; it combines free-market principles with social welfare.
Showing 768 database articles primarily about either Workforce, Demographics, Education, Family/Marriage, Gender Pay Gap, Immigration, Inequality, Minimum Wage, Poverty/Crime, Unemployment/Participation, or Wages/Income

Sticky Wage Norms and the Real Wage Cost of Unexpected Inflation

AI Summary. Firms' wage-setting norms are sticky, rising only from 2.7% to 3.5% even as inflation peaked near 7%, causing real wages for workers who stayed in their jobs to fall systematically. By the time inflation subsided, the median firm's wage rule had converged to ~3%, roughly matching inflation.

Erik Hurst, Christina Patterson, Nela Richardson, and Ye Liv Wang University of Chicago
Date Posted:
September 10, 2026
Is Database:
Database

ADP microdata from 2016–25 suggest firms set wages according to “wage norms” ~ invariant to inflation. The 2020–21 inflation surge mechanically reduced real wages. By the end of 2025, 34% of incumbent workers’ real wages were lower than in 2020.

Do sticky wage norms systematically reduce real wages during inflation spikes?

Core argument: Firm-level modal wage rules peaked at 3.5% in 2022–2023 against roughly 7% inflation, meaning nominal rigidity systematically eroded real wages for job stayers throughout the inflationary episode.

Roughly 42% of all nominal wage increases below 6% were within 0.01 percentage points of a whole or half number [Figure 6]. Figure 9 plots the employment-weighted average modal wage change across firms (solid line) alongside inflation rate (dashed line) from 2016 through 2025. In the pre-pandemic period, firm-level wage rules were relatively stable at a median of 2.7%, modestly above the rate of inflation. Beginning in 2021, inflation rose sharply, peaking at approximately seven percent in 2022. The average modal wage change also rose, reaching a peak of 3.5% in 2022 and 2023. By 2025, the median firm had a wage rule granting increases of three percent, roughly in line with inflation. The stickiness of firms’ wage rules in the face of inflationary pressure contributed to the systematic fall in real wages for job stayers. Evidence from Belgium [which has strong wage indexation], suggests that declining real wages, rather than inflation itself, helps explain the persistence of depressed consumer sentiment during the 2021–2024 period.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Firm-level modal wage rules peaked at 3.5% in 2022–2023 against roughly 7% inflation, meaning nominal rigidity systematically eroded real wages for job stayers throughout the inflationary episode.
  2. The median firm’s modal wage increase converged to 3% by 2025—matching inflation rather than exceeding it—marking a reversal from the pre-pandemic norm of 2.7% modestly above price growth.

Related Articles:

  • Do Voters Punish Inflation or Pay Cuts? Inflation and Real Wages in U.S. Elections — Given state fixed effects, demographics, and local inflation, a county whose real wage loss was 1SD > that of the mean county shifted its Presidential vote…
  • Real Wages Start To Shrink In Developed Countries — Real wages are shrinking across the US, UK, and Eurozone as energy-driven inflation outpaces earnings growth. Fiscal constraints limit government support in key economies, raising recession risk as household spending power falls.
  • The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share — The labor share of income has fallen 1.6 percentage points below its pre-pandemic level, reaching an all-time post-war low, driven by within-industry dynamics rather than shifts in activity across sectors.
  • Wages/Income
  • GDP
    • Inflation
  • Politics
  • Workforce

On Europe’s Economy, Let’s Ditch The Lazy Stereotypes

AI Summary. Prime-age (25–54) and older (55–64) employment rates in Europe exceed those in the U.S., disproving the claim that European welfare systems suppress work. Higher-welfare northern European countries tend to have higher employment rates than lower-welfare southern ones.

Chris Giles Financial Times
Date Posted:
September 10, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Despite Europe’s high social spending relative to the US, Chris Giles notes that prime-age adult (25–54) labor force participation in the Eurozone has overtaken that of the US, and there has been a dramatic convergence in the LFP of older workers.

Does European welfare actually discourage work?

Core argument: Prime-age adults (25–54) and older workers (55–64) both achieve higher employment rates in Europe than in the U.S., refuting the premise that generous welfare systems suppress labor force participation.

It does not matter whether you use EU or Eurozone data, prime-age adults (between 25 and 54) in Europe are more likely to be in work than those in the US. Older people (between 55 and 64) also have higher employment rates in Europe. Younger people (between 15 and 24) are more likely to have a job in the US, but that results from Europeans educating themselves for longer. The proportion of young people not in education, employment or training is higher in the US than in Europe. So welfare is not stopping work. More than that, the higher-welfare north of Europe tends to have higher employment rates than the south, although there is convergence within the Eurozone. Spain, in particular, has enjoyed rapid improvements.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Prime-age adults (25–54) and older workers (55–64) both achieve higher employment rates in Europe than in the U.S., refuting the premise that generous welfare systems suppress labor force participation.
  2. The U.S. records a higher share of young people (15–24) not in education, employment, or training than Europe, indicating that lower U.S. youth employment reflects weaker human capital investment, not stronger labor markets.
  3. Within Europe, higher-welfare northern economies consistently outperform lower-welfare southern ones on employment rates, though intra-Eurozone convergence is underway, led by rapid gains in Spain.

Related Articles:

  • Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans? — The gap in hours worked between Americans and non-Americans has narrowed by half since the 1990s, driven by declining U.S. work hours as expanded government health benefits reduced the need to work, while rising wages and lower barriers to employment increased hours worked in other advanced economies.
  • The Future of European Competitiveness – A Competitiveness Strategy for Europe — An EC study of European competitiveness finds that EU gross value-added per hour worked increased by 0.7%/year from 2000-19, vs. 1.2%/year in the US. “Europe…
  • Ed Conard Debates Furman On “The Expected Value of Risk Taking” — I debate @JasonFurman—Pres. Obama’s Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors—at Harvard over the effect of tax increases on the expected value of innovative…
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Comparisons
    • Europe USA Relative Performance
  • GDP
    • Growth
  • Workforce

The Jobs Apocalypse Is Postponed. An AI Jobs Boom Is Here

AI Summary. AI-driven data-center expansion and related professional hiring have added roughly 1.05m jobs above trend since 2022–2023, spanning electrical contracting, equipment manufacturing, software development, and data science. The job gains exceed what broader construction, manufacturing, and professional employment trends would predict.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
September 9, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

The Economist estimates that so far the AI boom has created ~1mm new jobs in the US, exceeding their estimate of ~200,000 layoffs attributed to AI since mid-2023.

Is artificial intelligence creating a genuine employment boom or temporary hiring surge?

Core argument: AI-linked demand has generated roughly 730,000 above-trend jobs in engineering, software development, and data science since 2022, substantially outpacing near-term displacement effects.

[We] tracked five industries at the heart of the data-centre build-out, from electrical contracting to equipment manufacturing. Since 2023 employment in them has risen by roughly 320,000 more than broader construction and manufacturing trends would suggest. Not all of those jobs owe their existence to AI—grid upgrades and other factory building matters too. [We also] tracked employment in professional occupations closest to the AI boom—engineers, software developers, mathematicians and data scientists—and compared their growth since 2022 with professional employment overall. These roles have added roughly 730,000 jobs above trend in recent years. AI will not have created every single one of them. But it has almost certainly created quite a few.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. AI-linked demand has generated roughly 730,000 above-trend jobs in engineering, software development, and data science since 2022, substantially outpacing near-term displacement effects.
  2. Data-centre construction has added approximately 320,000 above-trend jobs across electrical contracting and equipment manufacturing since 2023, with grid upgrades and broader factory-building contributing alongside AI demand.

Related Articles:

  • The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era — The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 between 2022 and 2026, the first sustained decline in relative demand for college labor in four decades. AI exposure in white-collar occupations accounts for ~28% of this drop, as moving from zero to full occupational AI exposure reduced wages by 0.086.
  • Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence — Young workers in the most AI-exposed occupations face an employment shortfall ~19% below less-exposed peers, driven by reduced hiring rather than job losses, and concentrated in roles where AI replaces rather than complements human tasks.
  • Looking for the Ladder — The downtick in hiring in AI-exposed occupations started 6 months prior to the release of ChatGPT, and is “perfectly” aligned with the start of Fed rate hikes…
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research
    • Investment
  • Workforce

Americans Without College Degrees Are Having One of the Best Job Markets in Years

AI Summary. Non-college workers ages 22–34 are experiencing historically low unemployment relative to their own two-decade range, outperforming college-educated peers on that relative measure. College graduates still hold an absolute advantage, with a 2.7% unemployment rate versus 4.7% for high-school-only workers.

Theo Francis and Ray Smith Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

In 2026, the 12-month moving-average unemployment for college-educated 22–34-year-olds is above its post-2003 mean, while the rate for non-college peers is historically low. Prime-age college grads still have lower unemployment than those with no degree.

Is the job market finally tightening for workers without degrees?

Core argument: Non-college workers ages 22–34 are experiencing one of their strongest job markets in two decades, with unemployment rates near historic lows relative to their own 2003–present range, outperforming their college-educated peers on that relative measure.

The unemployment rate for workers ages 22 to 34 who never graduated from college has rarely been lower in the past two decades. To gauge how the job market has shifted for each cohort, [Gad Levanon, Burning Glass’s chief economist] compared current unemployment rates for the different groups with their own range of unemployment rates since 2003. The analysis included data through July. By that measure, the job market looks much better for blue-collar workers, including those in construction and on manufacturing lines, and manual-service workers. It is [however] still easier to find a job with a college degree. The unemployment rate for degree-holders in their prime working years—ages 25 to 54—averaged 2.7% for the 12 months ending in July - well below the 3.6% rate for workers with just some college education, and 4.7% for people with a high-school diploma only.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Non-college workers ages 22–34 are experiencing one of their strongest job markets in two decades, with unemployment rates near historic lows relative to their own 2003–present range, outperforming their college-educated peers on that relative measure.
  2. On an absolute basis, a college degree still confers a significant labor-market advantage: prime-age degree-holders averaged 2.7% unemployment versus 3.6% for some-college workers and 4.7% for high-school-only workers over the 12 months ending July.

Related Articles:

  • College Grads Struggle to Find Jobs. Non-Grads Are Giving Up — The narrowing unemployment gap between young college graduates and non-graduates reflects rising labor force dropout among non-graduates, not equal job market outcomes; the share of young non-graduates who are employed is 1.7 percentage points below pre-pandemic levels and falling, while graduates are near recovery.
  • To Fix Education, Fix The Economy First — Using OECD skills data and the Luxembourg Income Study, Burn-Murdoch finds US workers at the lowest levels of literacy and numeracy earn ~ on par with British…
  • The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era — The U.S. college wage premium fell from 0.626 to 0.575 between 2022 and 2026, the first sustained decline in relative demand for college labor in four decades. AI exposure in white-collar occupations accounts for ~28% of this drop, as moving from zero to full occupational AI exposure reduced wages by 0.086.
  • Unemployment/Participation
  • Workforce
    • Education
      • College
      • K-12

Recent Trends in Personal Income & Wage Inequality

AI Summary. New York City's top 1% captured nearly two-thirds of real income growth between 2019 and 2024, versus under 40% nationally, driven by capital gains, dividends, and business income rather than wages.

Jonathan Siegel and Jason Bram Office of the New York City Comptroller
Date Posted:
September 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Btw 2019 and 2024, pre-tax, pre-transfer real median income in New York City fell 3.2%. The top .1% tax units, ~ households, (mean income ~$24mm) saw real growth of ~25%, whereas the bottom 90% (mean income ~$45,000) fell 0.8%.

Is capital income concentration widening faster in major cities than nationally?

Core argument: Nearly two-thirds of New York City’s real income growth from 2019–2024 accrued to the top 1%, versus under 40% nationally, driven by faster-rising capital gains, dividends, and business income rather than wage divergence.

Between 2019 and 2024, the New York City’s income shares at the top of the distribution rose faster than the nation's, and nearly two-thirds of the real income growth over the period accrued to the top 1%, compared with under 40% nationally. The result also holds when volatile capital gains are excluded. Real median income fell over the period, and real average income for the bottom 90% of tax units was essentially flat. Adjusted for local prices (but not for transfer programs), the purchasing power of income for the lower 90% of New Yorkers is close to one-fifth below that of the bottom 90% nationally. The divergence at the top is predominantly a story of non-wage income. Wage and salary income shows a much milder widening, and occupational wage data that exclude bonuses show base pay growing faster in lower-wage occupations than in higher-wage ones, and within many occupational groups wages are converging rather than growing more unequal.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Nearly two-thirds of New York City’s real income growth from 2019–2024 accrued to the top 1%, versus under 40% nationally, driven by faster-rising capital gains, dividends, and business income rather than wage divergence.
  2. The bottom 90% of New York City earners hold purchasing power roughly one-fifth below their national counterparts after adjusting for local prices, even before accounting for transfer programs.

Related Articles:

  • As New Jobs In Finance Dry Up, New York City’s Fiscal Model Is Wilting — Since January 2020, private sector real hourly earnings have fallen 9% in New York City, while increasing 3% nationally, as large firms based in NYC move jobs…
  • Where is Standard of Living the Highest? Local Prices and the Geography of Consumption — For non-college Americans, high local prices mean lower living standards. “A high school drop-out household moving from the least expensive commuting zone to…
  • The Demographic Trends That Shaped Mamdani’s Win — Voters under the age of 45, 46% of registered voters in New York City, made up ~43% of voters in the mayor’s race. In neighborhoods where the nonwhite…
  • Inequality
  • Politics
  • Workforce
    • Wages/Income

The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence Using a Partially Pre-Committed Analysis Plan

AI Summary. Large minimum wage increases reduce employment among young and low-education workers, while small increases have no measurable effect. Four years after enactment, large increases lower employment by ~5 percentage points for workers aged 16–25 without a high school diploma and ~3 percentage points for all workers aged 16–21.

Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Strain American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
September 3, 2026
Is Database:
Database

While a state-level event study finds no employment effect from small minimum-wage hikes, imputation DiD estimates show that four years after large hikes, employment is ~5pp lower for 16–25-year-olds without a HS degree and ~3pp lower for all 16–21-year-olds.

Do large minimum wage increases harm young workers more than small ones?

Core argument: Large minimum wage increases reduced employment among 16–25-year-olds without a high school diploma by nearly 5 percentage points four years post-enactment; small increases produced no measurable employment effect in the same population.

Figure 4 reports our imputation difference-in-differences estimates for the effects of small and large minimum wage changes on employment among individuals aged 16–21 and among individuals aged 16–25 with less than a completed high school education. The samples are from the ACS [American Community Survey]. [The data span 2011-2019]. We compare estimates for large versus small increases. The estimates to the left of the vertical dashed lines reveal no concerning evidence of divergent preexisting trends. We find null effects for the states that enacted small minimum wage increases and negative effects for states with large minimum wage increases. By 4 years after the enactment of the first increase, the estimate has approached −5pp for individuals aged 16–25 with less than a completed high school education, and −3pp for the sample of all individuals aged 16–21. [Editor's note: The authors note that Section VIII of the paper, which contains the Figure 4 imputation DiD estimates, “presents estimates from a modern difference-in-differences estimator that falls outside of our pre-analysis plan.”  The results are somewhat larger than those reported in the Abstract.]

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Large minimum wage increases reduced employment among 16–25-year-olds without a high school diploma by nearly 5 percentage points four years post-enactment; small increases produced no measurable employment effect in the same population.
  2. Large minimum wage increases reduced employment among all 16–21-year-olds by approximately 3 percentage points, indicating that younger, lower-skilled workers bear a disproportionate share of the disemployment costs of aggressive wage floors.
  3. Parallel pre-treatment trends between treatment and control states strengthen the causal interpretation of the negative employment estimates attributable to large minimum wage increases.

Related Articles:

  • The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes on Hours Worked: Evidence Using a Partially Pre-committed Analysis Plan — In CPS data from 2011–2019, relatively large statutory increases in the minimum wage reduced hours for workers, ages 16–25 with less than a high school…
  • Did California’s Fast Food Minimum Wage Reduce Employment? — The 2024 rise in CA’s minimum wage in fast food restaurants from $16 to $20 raised the sector’s wages ~8% and lowered its employment by 2 to 4% relative to the…
  • Minimum Wages and the Rise of the Robots — Across US states, a 10pp higher growth rate of the minimum wage over 1992–2021 was associated with an ~8% higher-than-expected installation of industrial…
  • Minimum Wage
  • Workforce
    • Unemployment/Participation
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