Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
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Straight Up Conversation: RAND Education Chief Darleen Opfer

Frederick Hess Education Next
Date Posted:
January 22, 2019
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RAND Education Chief Darleen Opfer Gate’s Education Initiative “Didn’t Make An Impact”.

RAND Education Chief Darleen Opfer Gate’s Education Initiative “Didn’t Make An Impact”.
The Gates Foundation's Effective Teaching initiative, evaluated over seven years by RAND, failed to make a significant impact, highlighting key challenges in education reform. Despite the initiative's comprehensive approach, including classroom observation rubrics and feedback systems, its high-stakes nature led to decreased support from teachers and principals. The evaluation revealed that the time burden on principals and leadership turnover in districts hindered consistent implementation. These findings underscore the importance of allowing sufficient time for interventions to take effect and suggest exploring alternative approaches to reduce administrative demands.

"...From the evaluation, we gained insights about why the initiative didn’t make an impact, which can be used to help future initiatives succeed—if people are willing to pay attention to the lessons learned...."

Frederick Hess, "Straight Up Conversation: RAND Education Chief Darleen Opfer,"Education Next, January 18, 2019, https://www.educationnext.org/straight-conversation-rand-education-chief-darleen-opfer/

Straight Up Conversation: RAND Education Chief Darleen Opfer

Darleen Opfer serves as director of RAND Education and Labor, a division of the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. She leads a 200-person staff that conducts research for major government agencies and private foundations. Along with her extensive work in the U.S., Darleen has researched teacher professional development in countries such as England and Turkey, and served as an education advisor in Norway, Israel, India and South Africa. Before RAND, she was director of research and a senior lecturer at the University of Cambridge. I recently had the chance to chat with Darleen about the state of education research, and here’s what she had to say.

Rick Hess: Darleen, readers probably have a vague notion that RAND Education does research and analysis, but can you explain more concretely what it is you do?

Darleen Opfer: RAND was founded 70 years ago to provide objective analysis on defense issues for the U.S. government. In the late 1960s, we expanded our work to social and economic policy areas such as education and health. For several decades, RAND Education has conducted research on schools and other educational institutions from pre-K through postsecondary, but recently we combined the education and labor research groups. We’re excited about this new structure because it allows us to connect our education research with our significant body of research on workforce skills needed for individuals to be successful. I think what people would find surprising about RAND is the breadth of research that is conducted. Our education and labor research is quite tame compared to work my colleagues are doing to track guns on the dark web, fight the opioid crisis, and clean up space junk.

RH: How did you wind up at RAND, anyway?

DO: RAND found me. I was at the University of Cambridge, which was amazing, but I became increasingly frustrated with research that didn’t necessarily make a difference in the lives of kids and teachers. RAND offered me the opportunity to be part of an organization whose research makes a difference.

RH: What are a couple of the most interesting projects currently on your docket?

DO: We just released our final report about best practices for school districts to implement summer learning programs. This report is a product of a six-year study sponsored by the Wallace Foundation. Through this randomized controlled trial, we assembled the largest dataset out there about summer learning—over four summers, we conducted thousands of hours of observations, surveyed thousands of summer teachers, and did hundreds of interviews. We will be presenting very specific recommendations about how to use time, how to train and recruit teachers, and when to plan for summer programs. Another Research area, which we call the RE: Work initiative, focuses on the future of work and the role of education in powering economic prosperity for individuals. This effort arose out of our decision to bring together education and labor researchers to talk about why the education system and the labor market seem to be leaving so many people behind. Ultimately, we want to help create more pathways to the middle class.

RH: This past summer, RAND issued the final results of a seven-year evaluation examining the Gates Foundation’s massive Effective Teaching initiative. Most observers regarded the results as quite disappointing for a once-heralded effort. Can you talk a bit about that project and the takeaways?

DO: It was unfortunate that the coverage of that report was so negative in the education press. The Gates Foundation deserves credit both for sticking with their intervention and the evaluation. A major problem I see in education research is that people jump from one thing to the next without giving interventions enough time to even have an impact. From the evaluation, we gained insights about why the initiative didn’t make an impact, which can be used to help future initiatives succeed—if people are willing to pay attention to the lessons learned.

RH: And, to your mind, what are a couple of the key lessons that people should learn?

DO: We learned that teachers and principals valued some aspects of the evaluation system, particularly the classroom observation rubrics which not only provided teachers with more detailed feedback than before, but also helped to create a common language around what good teaching looks like. At the same time, once the evaluation measures became high stakes, teachers’ support for them declined, and principals seemed less willing to provide negative feedback—a finding that has been reinforced in other research. We also found that implementing these types of systems places a heavy time burden on principals, which suggests that districts or Charter Management Organizations might want to explore alternative approaches that reduce demands on principals’ time by shortening observations or having someone other than the principal conduct some of them. A final key takeaway is that the significant turnover in the leadership of the districts and CMOs proved to be a barrier to consistent messaging and coherent implementation.

RH: How uncomfortable is it to issue a report that says a client’s big project didn’t pan out as hoped?

DO: It can depend on the client. We never want to take anyone by surprise, so we would make sure the client is briefed before the report is published. We typically give the client an opportunity to review all products and share any concerns, though we ultimately decide whether and how to address them. In the case of the Effective Teaching report, we provided interim reports and communicated informally with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation on a regular basis. The Foundation knew what was happening and still stuck with it. I think they understood that it is as important for the field to understand why something didn’t work as it is to understand why something did. If you have a client who cares more about the field than they do about the hit they may take in the press, then putting out a report such as we did for the Effective Teaching project isn’t that difficult.

RH: What kind of safeguards do you all use to reassure outside observers that RAND researchers aren’t catering to clients or pulling their punches to keep clients happy?

DO: RAND’s mission is to produce research that makes a difference and is in the public’s interest. We reserve the right to publish independent research and regularly walk away from doing work when a potential client disagrees with this. Every report is also peer reviewed both internally and externally to make sure what we are doing meets the highest standards of quality. The insistence on both publication rights and the extensive nature of our peer review process is unique in the contract research world but central to RAND as an organization.

RH: Speaking of contract research, the Wallace Foundation recently commissioned a RAND report on Social and Emotional Learning interventions. Given all the hype around SEL, I’m curious: What did you all find—and how much confidence should parents and educators have in these interventions?

DO: As you know, there’s been a proliferation of new instructional programs and materials to promote SEL. Wallace asked RAND to generate guidance for education leaders who want to use their Every Student Succeed funds to pay for SEL programs. We found that there are numerous programs that are evidence-based when applying the ESSA definitions, but several factors—including the uneven rigor of the research designs, the lack of high-quality outcome measures, and the importance of contextual conditions in influencing how programs are implemented—limit our ability to provide definitive advice on what will work in a given school or district. So to answer your questions, the jury is still out on effectiveness of SEL programs. We recently released a follow-up report that provides practical tips on how to conduct an evidence-based SEL needs assessment tailored to local contexts.

RH: When it comes to professional development, we all know how much faith people tend to put in “better PD,” and how skeptical many teachers and researchers are about the value of all this. You’ve studied PD across the U.S., England, and Turkey. What can you share on this score?

DO: PD for teachers is often of low quality, but it doesn’t need to be. PD is a significant investment for districts and states, yet information after the fact about whether teachers implemented what they were taught or whether student learning improved is not collected. Some of our newer work is examining more customized, job-embedded approaches to PD, which are more likely to influence teachers’ practices and improve student learning. But I don’t think we’ll see a sea change in the quality of PD until policymakers decide that PD funding cannot be used for a program that lacks sufficient evidence of effectiveness. Until that happens, many PD providers will not be incentivized to improve what they offer.

RH: So, what does customized, job-embedded PD look like? Is there an example that comes to mind?

DO: This is PD that is tailored to a teacher’s role and context rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all format such as a large group workshop. High-quality PD that is job-embedded provides teachers with opportunities to try out what they’re learning and to get feedback on their practices in real time. This can occur through individual coaching and mentoring, for example. Professional learning communities in which teachers collaborate with their colleagues to plan lessons or review student work can also be a form of job-embedded PD because teachers are learning from one another. We’ve seen these models in many schools we’ve studied, though often conditions, such as limited time or funding, hinder the implementation of these models.

RH: Another intriguing project you all have tackled is a multi-nation examination of instruction in middle school math. What did you learn?

DO: Our middle school math study, the TALIS Video Study for the OECD, looks at the relationship between teaching practices and students’ achievement and social and emotional outcomes in mathematics. A study like this has never been done before because it’s difficult to develop cross-cultural instruments that can measure teaching, and the fielding requirements are complex. An interesting thing we’ve learned already is how much variation in mathematics content exists. Eckhard Klieme, at the Leibniz Institute for Research and Information in Education in Germany, worked with the 8 participating countries’ mathematics experts to map curriculum topics taught to students between 13-15 years old. That mapping exercise resulted in only two common topics—linear equations and quadratic equations. We selected quadratic equations for the focus of the study, but we’re finding out that what counts as quadratic equation content also varies across the countries. This variation is important to understand because too often we expect students to demonstrate understanding when they haven’t even been given the opportunity to learn.

RH: From your perch at RAND, you’ve got a bird’s eye view of so much of the education research happening in the U.S. and around the world. What are a couple things that have caught your eye that may be news to those of us more enmeshed in our day-to-day?

DO: With the growth in technology applications in schools, combined with advancements in data processing and analysis capabilities, we need to think more about what the next generation of ed-tech reforms will look like and how educators can create the conditions to maximize their benefits and minimize harms. But we also need to do so in a way that doesn’t further harm the teaching profession. There has been scope creep, and the demands on teachers to be academic instructors, social and emotional instructors, first responders, and so on can be overwhelming. Advances in personalization of education, while exciting, make lesson planning and progress monitoring even more challenging. As education delivery and expectations change, we need to develop a sustainable and fulfilling teacher career trajectory and be able to forecast needs and demands of the future teacher labor market.

RH: Final question: What’s an especially promising development you see when it comes to education research? And, what’s the one development in education research that you find most disconcerting?

DO: The use of randomized control trials and other rigorous research designs has grown tremendously, resulting in valuable evidence on education programs and practices. At the same time, we are starting to see the limits of these approaches; there has been a replication crisis not just in education but in several fields, where we’ve seen that positive effects often don’t hold up when an intervention is studied by a different research team or in a different context. This points to the need to better understand what’s driving varying results. Because of that, I think implementation is finally getting its due in research. We all know how critical it is to implement a program long enough and well enough to see results, and how often that doesn’t happen in schools. So I’m happy to see increased focus on how educators implement reforms.

But something I find problematic is that even with the increase in quality, we are not seeing a comparable increase in use of research. One of my priorities is to ensure that RAND’s work is conducted and disseminated in a way that will improve decisionmaking—this is RAND’s core mission and is the reason researchers such as myself work here. In order to see more research being used, we need to be clear on the utility of our research. Here at RAND, we’re working on how to improve our ability to tell educators what they can/should do based on the research evidence we produce. The onus is on the research community to help educators use evidence-based practices; if we do that, we can move the needle significantly when it comes to bettering education systems worldwide.

— Frederick Hess

Frederick Hess is director of education policy studies at AEI and an executive editor at Education Next.

  • Education
    • K-12
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Showing 56 database articles primarily about Education

To Fix Education, Fix The Economy First

John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
Date Posted:
August 7, 2026
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Using OECD skills data and the Luxembourg Income Study, Burn-Murdoch finds US workers at the lowest levels of literacy and numeracy earn ~ on par with British workers scoring a 2, ~ a mean score.

30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old. The same proportion of US workers who score stunningly low on literacy earn an average of almost $30 per hour, and two-thirds of them are in work. Their British counterparts make the equivalent of $20 and fewer than half are employed. This all looks more like the fruits of years of stronger growth than vocational education policy. We should view education as creating potential that a strong economy unleashes (and a weak one disappoints).

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  • Toward An Understanding Of The Returns To Cognitive Skills Across Cohorts — Wage returns to cognitive skill have declined for white men who took the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) in 1997 relative to 1979, driven primarily by a…
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Meritocracy and the Networks It Forged: China’s Imperial Examination

Ying Bai and Ruixue Jia National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
August 3, 2026
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From 1644–1905, Qing China staffed its bureaucracy through exams and patronage. Only 12.6% of exam graduates reached top office, but patronage favored stronger performers, illustrating how merit and connections can be complements rather than substitutes.

Figure 5 studies the interplay between merit and networks by estimating the effects of exam performance and ties to powerful examiners separately for the high- and low-performing categories. The left panel shows the effects of exam performance for the two categories, while the right panel presents those of examiner power. Two patterns stand out. First, exam performance matters more for the high category, consistent with the institutional design that steered this elite group toward more prestigious careers. Second, ties to powerful examiners are also more valuable for the high category, pointing to a complementarity between merit and networks. To understand the implications of our finding on complementarity, it is useful to contrast it with the counterfactual of substitution. When merit and networks are complements (rather than substitutes), those who attained top office tend to exhibit both stronger exam performance and stronger connections. By contrast, under substitution, strong networks would compensate for weaker exam performance, and vice versa. Complementarity implies [a higher degree of meritocracy than substitution, as] successful candidates appear to have had better performance. Second, complementarity makes it harder to identify the influence of networks: their effects can operate under the guise of merit rather than as a visible substitute for it.

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The Returns to Education: A Meta-Study

Gregory Clark and Christian Alexander Abildgaard Nielsen Kyklos
Date Posted:
February 11, 2026
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Clark and Nielsen replicate the ~8% estimates of the return to education obtained by standard methods, but find evidence of selection biases in favor of high estimated returns. After correcting for these biases, they calculate returns on the order of 3%.

In this meta-study of 79 estimates of the causal effects of education on earnings (derived from increases of the mandated school-leaving age or legislation banning child labor under certain ages), we report a similar effect to [the classic] earlier study (Ashenfelter, et al): an 8.2% gain in earnings for each year of education. We also find clear evidence of significant publication biases. Studies passing the filter of publication were more likely to have coefficients statistically significantly greater than 0, and we observe strong evidence that studies with returns estimated at less than 0 were more difficult to publish. There is strong suggestive evidence of the first publication bias in the data. Figure 6 shows that the average estimated return rises substantially where the standard error is larger. This suggests a greater likelihood of an estimate being published when it was statistically significantly different from 0. If all estimates were published independent of the estimated return, we would not expect there to be such a gradient. Correcting the first publication bias by looking at the average return on the studies with the lowest standard errors would suggest an average causal return to education of no more than 3%, compared to the reported 8.2%. Independent of this, correcting for the omission of returns less than 0 implies an overall causal return to education only in the 0%–3% range.

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Marginal Admission to Elite High Schools: Long-run Effects on Labor Market Outcomes

Francisco Cabrera-Hernández, Andrew Dustan, Daniel Osuna Gomez and María Padilla-Romo National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
January 22, 2026
Is Database:
Database

In data from the Mexico City metro area over 2003–2009, students who just missed the exam score cutoff for admission to an elite high school have 5.3% higher wages after five years (2.5% after 10 years) than marginally admitted students.

[We] trace out the [harmful] causal impact of [marginal] assignment to an elite school [as opposed to just missing the admissions cutoff] on formal private labor market outcomes over time. Five years after the assignment process (at ages 19-20, beyond high school age), elite assignment [based on a test score marginally above the cutoff] causes a 3.2pp decline in the probability of ever having held a formal job. This is a 16% decline relative to the base rate of 20% for students missing the elite cutoff by one point. Over time, this elite disadvantage declines: after 10 years (at ages 24-25, after the typical age of college graduation), the effect is -2.1pp, while after 15 years (at ages 29-30) the estimated -0.2pp impact is statistically insignificant. While the negative effect on formal employment eventually fades, it leaves elite students with a deficit in formal labor market experience. After 5 years, elite assignment reduces the cumulative number of months with a formal job by 14%. Conditional on formal employment, marginal elite assignment causes a reduction in wages that fades out over time. Five years after assignment, elite assignment reduces wages by 5.3%. This reduction declines to 2.6% after 10 years, and [essentially vanishes] after 15 years.

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Plunging US Birth Rate Leaves Too Many Colleges With Too Few Kids

Elizabeth Rembert, Amanda Albright and Marie Patino Bloomberg
Date Posted:
January 16, 2026
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Database

As America’s demographics roll over, smaller public and private liberal arts colleges have “already hit the precipice.” Btw 2003 and 2024, more than 100 public campuses closed, and ~ 2/3 of private for-profit colleges have shut down since the 2010s.

The country’s tumbling birth rate is pushing schools toward a “demographic cliff,” where a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s will leave desks and classrooms empty. Many smaller, lesser-known schools have already hit the precipice. They’re firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM — or closing altogether. Others will likely reach the cliff in the next few years. Although it has plunged since the 1950s, the US birth rate ticked upward slightly before the 2008 financial crisis, and that brief demographic boost has kept enrollment at larger schools afloat. But the nationwide pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025. The financial pressure will be relentless. “If colleges were facing a stark decline in one or two cohorts, higher ed could likely say, ‘Well, we could admit a few additional students and tighten our belts to muddle through,’” said Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota, who has written books about education and demographics. “But it’s one year after another of contraction, of ratcheting up the pressure.”

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How Mississippi Transformed Its Schools From Worst to Best

Sarah Mervosh New York Times
Date Posted:
January 13, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Controlling for poverty and demographics, Mississippi has the best outcomes for fourth-grade reading and math, and is near the top in eighth-grade scores. In absolute terms, “eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math.”

Controlling for poverty and demographics, Mississippi has the best outcomes for fourth-grade reading and math, and is near...
Adjusted for poverty and other student demographics, Mississippi is No. 1 for fourth grade reading and math, and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute. Mississippi’s gains have been confined mostly to the early years, where the state has focused its efforts. The system revolves around standardized testing, and the gains have not always persisted. By raw scores, Mississippi eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math. The state pushed through a vast list of other changes from the top down, including changing the way reading is taught, in an approach known as the science of reading, but also embracing contentious school accountability policies other states have backed away from. Unlike No Child Left Behind, the Bush-era federal law that set a goal of having every child in America be proficient in reading and math, Mississippi also measures how much students progress toward proficiency. Schools get credit if students show improvement — and double credit for the improvement of students in the bottom 25%.

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