Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Researchers find that economic prospects for working-class and poor white Americans are declining while improving for Black Americans in the same economic tier, narrowing the income gap. Among children born to parents at the 25th income percentile, the Black-white earnings gap at age 27 shrank from about $12,994 to $9,521 in 2023 dollars.

Arian Campo-Flores Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:

Raj Chetty’s research finds that white children born in the bottom income quintile in 1992 had a 29.7% chance of staying there, up from 24.9% in 1978, and only an 11.9% chance of rising to the top quintile, down from 13.7%. @WSJ

Is the Black-white income gap narrowing among lower-income Americans?

Core argument: The Black-white income gap at age 27 for children born to parents at the 25th percentile narrowed from $12,994 for the 1978 birth cohort to $9,521 for the 1992 cohort, in 2023 dollars.

A big shift is under way in American life: The prospects for working-class and poor white Americans are declining, while they are improving for Black Americans in the same economic tier. The change in economic mobility the researchers traced—which shrank the amount by which Black Americans’ income lags behind white Americans’ income—occurred between 2005, when many Gen Xers were in their late 20s, and 2019, when many millennials reached the same age. Nationwide, a Black child born to parents at the 25th percentile of income in 1992 made $9,521 less at age 27 than a white child born at the 25th percentile. A Black child born in 1978 made $12,994 less at age 27, adjusted to 2023 dollars.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The Black-white income gap at age 27 for children born to parents at the 25th percentile narrowed from $12,994 for the 1978 birth cohort to $9,521 for the 1992 cohort, in 2023 dollars.
  2. Researchers traced the change in economic mobility between 2005, when many Gen Xers were in their late 20s, and 2019, when many millennials reached the same age.
  3. Prospects for working-class and poor white Americans are declining while improving for Black Americans in the same economic tier.

Related Articles:

  • Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility — Across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, adult household incomes fell for white children raised in low-income families and rose for those raised in high-income families, increasing the intergenerational persistence of income ranks among white children by 28%. Over the same cohorts, adult incomes rose for Black children at all parental income levels.
  • Two Cheers for Shrinking Black-White Opportunity Gaps — Research finds outcomes for Black adults raised poor worsened on several measures including household income, marriage, and mortality, but declined less than for whites raised poor, narrowing the racial gap. Among children raised poor, 4% of Black and 15% of white adults reach the top fifth of household income.
  • Intergenerational Mobility in American History: Accounting for Race and Measurement Error — Accounting for Black families, who historical studies routinely drop, and for measurement error in fathers' economic status can double estimates of intergenerational persistence in linked United States census data from 1850 to 1940. The author argues historical mobility was lower than previously estimated, implying greater equality of opportunity today than in the past.
Showing 132 database articles primarily about Wages/Income