Edward Conard

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  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, adult household incomes fell for white children raised in low-income families and rose for those raised in high-income families, increasing the intergenerational persistence of income ranks among white children by 28%. Over the same cohorts, adult incomes rose for Black children at all parental income levels.

Raj Chetty, Will Dobbie, Benjamin Goldman, Sonya Porter and Crystal Yang National Bureau of Economic Research
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Raj Chetty @OppInsights finds that a white child born into the bottom household income quintile in 1992 had a 29.7% chance of remaining there, up from 24.9% in 1978, and an 11.9% chance of rising to the top quintile, down from 13.7% in 1978.

Are class gaps in economic mobility widening while race gaps narrow?

Core argument: Between the 1978 and 1992 birth cohorts, the intergenerational persistence of household income ranks for white children rose 28%, as adult incomes fell sharply for white children from low-income families and rose for those from high-income families.

Between the 1978 and 1992 birth cohorts, household incomes in adulthood fell sharply for white children growing up in low-income families. At the same time, incomes increased for white children growing up in high-income families. These divergent trends resulted in growing white class gaps, with the intergenerational persistence of household income ranks for white children increasing by 28%. The gap in average household incomes for white children raised in low-income (25th percentile) versus high-income (75th percentile) families grew from $17,720 in the 1978 birth cohort to $20,950 in the 1992 birth cohort. In contrast, incomes in adulthood increased across all parental income levels for Black children.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Between the 1978 and 1992 birth cohorts, the intergenerational persistence of household income ranks for white children rose 28%, as adult incomes fell sharply for white children from low-income families and rose for those from high-income families.
  2. The adult household income gap between white children raised at the 25th versus 75th parental income percentile widened from $17,720 in the 1978 birth cohort to $20,950 in the 1992 cohort.
  3. For Black children, adult incomes increased across all parental income levels between the 1978 and 1992 birth cohorts, in contrast to the divergence among white children.

Related Articles:

  • Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility* — The authors find that children's economic mobility improves across birth cohorts in communities where parental employment rates increase, with larger effects for children who move to such communities at younger ages. The relationship is strongest for the parental employment rates of peers in a child's own birth cohort, suggesting it is mediated by social interaction.
  • Intergenerational Mobility in American History: Accounting for Race and Measurement Error — Accounting for Black families, who historical studies routinely drop, and for measurement error in fathers' economic status can double estimates of intergenerational persistence in linked United States census data from 1850 to 1940. The author argues historical mobility was lower than previously estimated, implying greater equality of opportunity today than in the past.
  • The Economics of Inequality in High-Wage Economies — Information technology created investment opportunities exceeding the supply of properly trained talent, while trade with low-wage economies, low-skilled immigration, trade deficits, and aging demographics eased constraints on low-skilled labor and risk-averse savings. The author argues this framework, rather than rising cronyism, explains high returns to success, slowing productivity growth, and low interest rates.
Showing 132 database articles primarily about Wages/Income