Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
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  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
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  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. China appears to be exporting close to $1tn more than it imports, with the trend upward, and other countries are unlikely to passively accept Chinese surpluses on that scale. The "China shock" of the 2000s showed that a large import surge inflicts unacceptable damage on affected workers and communities.

Paul Krugman New York Times
Date Posted:

.@paulkrugman argues “Serious trade conflict is coming as China tries to export its policy failures.” He cautions the Trump administration against “across the board” tariffs and warns of potential large-scale cronyism in their application.

Will other countries accept trade surpluses approaching $1 trillion?

Core argument: China appears to be exporting close to $1 trillion more than it imports, with the trend rising, as it offsets weak domestic consumption by running huge trade surpluses to keep its economy humming.

What do you do if you have lots of capacity but your consumers can’t or won’t buy what you make? You try to export the problem, keeping the economy humming by running huge trade surpluses. And I mean huge. Tellingly, China seems to be playing games with its trade numbers in an attempt to make its surpluses look smaller than they really are. But China appears to be exporting close to $1 trillion more than it imports, and the trend is upward. Hence the coming trade war. The rest of the world won’t passively accept Chinese surpluses on that scale. The “China shock” of the 2000s taught us that whatever the (real) virtues of free trade, a huge import surge does unacceptable damage to workers and communities in its path. Furthermore, China is an autocracy that doesn’t share democratic values. Allowing it to dominate strategically crucial industries is an unacceptable risk.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. China appears to be exporting close to $1 trillion more than it imports, with the trend rising, as it offsets weak domestic consumption by running huge trade surpluses to keep its economy humming.
  2. China seems to be playing games with its trade statistics in an attempt to make its surpluses look smaller than they actually are.
  3. The "China shock" of the 2000s taught that a huge import surge does unacceptable damage to workers and communities in its path, and letting an autocracy that does not share democratic values dominate strategically crucial industries is an unacceptable risk.

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Showing 56 database articles primarily about Trade (not deficits)