Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The authors estimate that opioids account for 44% of the decline in prime-age male labor force participation, with a 10% increase in local opioid prescription rates associated with a 0.50 percentage point drop in prime-age male employment rates. The effect is more pronounced among white men without a bachelor's degree.

Dionissi Aliprantis, Kyle Fee, and Mark E. Schweitzer Federal Reserve Bank Of Cleveland
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Database

Opioids account for 44% of the decline in male labor force participation btw 2001-2015. A 10% increase in local opioid prescription rates correlates with a 0.50 percentage point drop in employment rates for prime-age men.

How much of falling prime-age male labor participation do opioids explain?

Core argument: Opioids accounted for 44% of the decline in male labor force participation from 2001 to 2015, and a 10% rise in local opioid prescription rates is associated with a 0.50 percentage point drop in prime-age male employment rates.

From 2001 to 2015, opioids significantly impacted male labor force participation [LFP], accounting for 44% of the decline. A 10% increase in local opioid prescription rates correlates with a 0.50 percentage point drop in employment rates for prime-age men. This trend is more pronounced among white men with less than a BA, although minority men show larger coefficients despite lower national abuse rates. The disparity arises from higher local prescription exposure for whites. If opioid exposure increases among minority men, their LFP could further decline. These findings underscore the causal link between opioid prescriptions and labor market outcomes, highlighting the need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate the adverse effects on LFP.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Opioids accounted for 44% of the decline in male labor force participation from 2001 to 2015, and a 10% rise in local opioid prescription rates is associated with a 0.50 percentage point drop in prime-age male employment rates.
  2. The employment effect of opioid prescriptions is more pronounced among white men without a BA, while minority men show larger coefficients despite lower national abuse rates, a disparity attributed to higher local prescription exposure among whites.
  3. Rising opioid exposure among minority men could further reduce their labor force participation, indicating a need for targeted policy interventions.

"...We have three main empirical results. First, we find that opioid prescription rates and labor force statuses are strongly correlated for both prime-age men and women. We find that increasing the local opioid prescription rate decreases employment rates for both prime-age men and women by lowering labor force participation rates and increasing unemployment. Specifically, increasing the local prescription rate by one-tenth of a log point (roughly 10%) decreases the employment rate of prime age men by 0.50 percent percentage points for men and 0.17 percentage points for prime age women.Examining the growth of national average prescription rates between 2000 to 2016, our estimates imply that opioid prescriptions can account for an important share of the change in labor force participation rates in recent years. For prime age men, they would imply a reduction in the labor force participation rate of 1.3 percentage points, or 44 percent of the decline from 2001 to 2015.For prime age women, our estimates would imply a reduction in the labor force participation rate of 0.5 percentage points, or 17 percent of the decline. Our estimates are larger for men, but smaller for women, than those reported in Krueger (2017). Second, inspired by Case and Deaton (2017)’s finding of demographic heterogeneity related to mortality, we use our data set to investigate heterogeneity across demographic groups. Consistent with Case and Deaton (2017), we find that opioids have a strong effect on the labor market outcomes of white men with less than a BA. However, we find that coefficients are actually largest for minority men with less than a BA. While NSDUH data indicate lower abuse rates of minority men nationally, we reconcile this seemingly contradictory finding by showing that the exposure to opioids, in terms of local prescription rates, is considerably higher for whites than minorities. The policy implications of this finding are clear: If exposure were to spread and increase for minority men, their labor force participation would likely decline from today’s levels. Third, we also provide evidence in favor of giving our results a causal interpretation. We begin by reviewing other recent literature that tends to provide support for a causal link between opioid prescription rates and labor market outcomes...."
Dionissi Aliprantis, Kyle Fee, and Mark E. Schweitzer, "Opioids and the Labor Market,"The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, March 1, 2019, https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/working-papers/2019-working-papers/wp-1807r-opioids-and-labor-market

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