Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Modelling of a global net-zero emissions scenario projects slower growth than a baseline scenario, with average global GDP growth of 2.0% a year rather than 2.3% through 2030 and 1.9% rather than 2.1% thereafter. Global GDP is projected to be 2.6% below baseline in 2030 and 5.6% below in 2050.

Jean Fouré, Rob Dellink, Elisa Lanzi and Filippo Pavanello Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Date Posted:

OECD analysis projects that achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will reduce global GDP by 5.6% relative to the current baseline.

Does reaching net-zero emissions slow global GDP growth?

Core argument: The net-zero emissions (NZE) Ambition scenario reduces global GDP relative to the Baseline by 2.6% in 2030 and 5.6% in 2050, even as the global economy continues to grow over time.

While the global economy keeps growing over time, the NZE Ambition [net zero emissions] scenario results in a slowdown of GDP growth, both between 2019 and 2030 and between 2030 and 2050. The average global GDP growth rate goes from 2.3% per annum in the Baseline between 2019 and 2030 to 2.0% and decreases from 2.1% between 2030 and 2050 in the Baseline scenario to 1.9% in the NZE Ambition scenario. This leads to a reduction of global GDP compared to Baseline by 2.6% in 2030 and 5.6% in 2050.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The net-zero emissions (NZE) Ambition scenario reduces global GDP relative to the Baseline by 2.6% in 2030 and 5.6% in 2050, even as the global economy continues to grow over time.
  2. Average global GDP growth under the NZE Ambition scenario falls to 2.0% per annum over 2019–2030, versus 2.3% in the Baseline scenario.
  3. Between 2030 and 2050, global GDP growth declines from 2.1% per annum in the Baseline to 1.9% in the NZE Ambition scenario.

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