Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
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How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students

Eliza Shapiro and K.K. Rebecca Lai New York Times
Date Posted:
June 3, 2019
Is Database:
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NYC’s elite public schools have seen a significant decline in Black and Hispanic student enrollment, dropping to just 10% despite these groups representing 70% of the city’s school system.

NYC's elite public schools have seen a significant decline in Black and Hispanic student enrollment, dropping to just 10% despite these groups representing 70% of the city's school system. This shift is partly due to the rise of test prep, which has become a $1bn industry, making it difficult for low-income families to compete. The number of test prep centers doubled to 436 by 2017, with basic courses costing $1,000. Meanwhile, accelerated programs in Black and Hispanic neighborhoods have closed, and many students remain unaware of elite school opportunities. Mayor de Blasio's proposal to replace the entrance exam with a system offering seats to top students from each middle school could increase Black and Hispanic enrollment to nearly 50%, but faces legislative hurdles. The demographic changes reflect broader economic and social shifts, including increased Asian immigration and the closure of gifted programs in poorer areas, which have exacerbated educational inequality.

The world got more competitive, great charts. Also mentions prep for prep, "...Prep for Prep, a training program that helps high-performing black, Hispanic and Asian students get into prestigious New York private schools, accepts only about 200 students a year. Some have argued that Prep for Prep recruits smart black and Hispanic students who might have otherwise attended a specialized school. But even if every Prep for Prep student were accepted into a specialized high school, they would still represent only a small fraction of the schools’ 5,000 or so offers for freshman seats...."

How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 1


How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 2


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Eliza Shapiro and K.K. Rebecca Lai, "How New York’s Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students,"New York Times, June 3, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/03/nyregion/nyc-public-schools-black-hispanic-students.html

How New York’s Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students

Donna Lennon will never forget when she learned she had won a seat at Stuyvesant High School, one of the nation’s most revered and selective public schools.

Ms. Lennon was sitting in English class in mostly low-income and black East New York, Brooklyn, in the spring of 1981 when a guidance counselor delivered the good news. The class erupted in cheers. “I couldn’t speak,” said Ms. Lennon, now 51 and a lawyer.

Four years later, she graduated from Stuyvesant — then one of the city’s three specialized high schools — alongside Dianne Morales, who said it “was a diamond in the middle of the desert” for students like her.

Ms. Morales, who is Puerto Rican and grew up in Bedford-Stuyvesant, Brooklyn, crammed for exams and completed hours of homework each night, sometimes on long commutes, alongside classmates from every corner of the city.

“All of New York City was new to me,” she said, remembering that she was exposed to loft parties in SoHo and friends’ luxurious apartments near Washington Square Park’s grand marble arch. At Stuyvesant, Ms. Morales, now the chief executive of a nonprofit, said she “learned there was so much more out there for me.”

In interviews, more than a dozen black and Hispanic students who graduated from New York City’s specialized high schools from 1975 to 1995 described the schools as oases for smart children from troubled neighborhoods. But the alumni said they were anguished that the schools have since lost nearly all of their black and Hispanic students.

How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 4


White enrollment has also fallen while Asian enrollment has ballooned. Among the most drastic shifts: Brooklyn Technical High School’s black population dropped to 6 percent in 2016 from 51 percent in 1982.

The city has designated five additional test-in specialized high schools since 2002, bringing the total to eight, in an attempt to integrate the elite schools. But even those schools have seen a decline in black and Hispanic enrollment over the last decade, which undercuts the idea that simply adding more elite schools will shift demographics. Black and Hispanic students currently represent 70 percent of the school system, but make up just 10 percent of the enrollment in the specialized schools.

When Ms. Lennon found out in March that only seven black students had scored high enough on the specialized school entrance exam to receive an offer to attend Stuyvesant, she logged onto the school’s alumni Facebook page. There, she found her own white and Asian classmates arguing that the decline was because black children did not work as hard as other students, or because their parents did not care as much as others’ did.

“It’s not like I’m new to being black — I understand stereotypes exist,” Ms. Lennon said. But this felt different.

“People are ignoring history,” she added. “No one is asking, ‘What has happened?’”

As a teenager, Thomas Colon proudly wore his Bronx High School of Science jacket on the subway and in his South Bronx neighborhood. He borrowed slang from classmates from all across the city and, for the first time, relished being around students even smarter than he was.

“How racist can you be when the first black kids you meet are in your advanced calculus class?” said Mr. Colon, 58, who is Puerto Rican and now retired from a career in finance. “That was the real beauty of the school.”

Since Mr. Colon graduated in 1978, the specialized school admissions process has been transformed by changes in the city’s demographics, its public school system and the culture around the schools’ entrance exam, which is at the center of the debate over the future of the elite schools.

For years, most who took the admissions test had little to no preparation. Today, test prep is a rapidly expanding local industry. At the same time, many accelerated academic programs in mostly black and Hispanic neighborhoods have closed as Asian immigrants have embraced the specialized high schools as tickets out of poverty.

And in a school system that remains severely racially segregated, many black and Hispanic students have been left in struggling middle schools that sometimes do not even notify them that the elite schools exist.

Mayor Bill de Blasio’s proposal to scrap the decades-old admissions test has sparked an intense backlash and a renewed fight over how to integrate the city’s deeply divided school system.

How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 5


The mayor’s proposal would replace the exam — currently the sole means of gaining admission to the schools — with a system that offers seats to the top-performing students from every city middle school. If his plan is approved by the State Legislature — an increasingly dim possibility — the specialized schools would be nearly 50 percent black and Hispanic, and Asian students would lose about half their seats.

That would be a significant blow to the Asian students, most of them poor, who have replaced white students as a majority in the specialized schools. From 1970 to 2011, the number of Asia-born immigrants living in New York City increased about eightfold to 843,000 from 105,000. The Asian population of the specialized schools includes Asian-Americans and Asian immigrants.

Though immigration from Latin America and Africa has also increased significantly in the same period, that influx is not reflected in the specialized schools’ makeup. By 2011, New York was home to about 984,000 first-generation immigrants from Latin America and roughly 128,000 immigrants who were born in Africa.

How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 6


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Much more has changed since New York’s most prized public schools began to look less like the city school system as a whole — and the explosion of test preparation may be the biggest shift.

“When I heard about all the test prep courses, I thought, if that was me, there was no way I could have afforded that,” said Dr. Danielle Elliott Range, who grew up in public housing in Far Rockaway, Queens, and graduated from Stuyvesant in 1989.

Dr. Range, now 47 and an associate medical director at Duke University Medical Center, said she sometimes went hungry over the weekend, between school lunches.

Today, it is almost unheard-of for a current student to not have prepared for the test — often at one of the prep centers whose presence in New York City has doubled in the past decade, to 436 in 2017. At Kaplan, a top prep chain, the most basic offering for the specialized school exam is eight group prep sessions for $1,000.

The centers have cropped up to prep students for the SAT, the specialized school test and other high-stakes exams. Some even offer summer classes.

How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 8


There is a debate over whether the city should expand prep or move away from a focus on standardized exams. As test prep has become all but a prerequisite over the last decade, advanced academic classes have evaporated for many black and Hispanic students.

When Ademola Oyefeso saw that only a tiny number of black and Hispanic students were admitted to the specialized schools this year, he said he was “twice mad.” Mr. Oyefeso, 41, who now works in politics, graduated from Brooklyn Tech in 1995.

“I was upset for those kids, because that’s not the experience I had,” he said. “And I was mad because, as a parent, I wondered how many black and brown kids were just left on the table because their parents didn’t know how to get you into gifted and talented.”

Mr. Oyefeso, like nearly all the other alumni interviewed, attended an accelerated middle school.

How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 9


About 10 years ago, Michael R. Bloomberg, then the city’s mayor, implemented a citywide test-based threshold for gifted and talented programs in an attempt to diversify them — but the programs soon shed even more black and Hispanic students.

Last year, there were nearly twice as many students in gifted and talented programs in District 2 — which includes mostly wealthy and white Manhattan neighborhoods — as there were in the Bronx, the city’s poorest borough. The Bronx has a total of nine gifted and talented programs, while District 2 alone has eight.

How New Yorks Elite Public Schools Lost Their Black and Hispanic Students: Extended Excerpt Image 10


Some families believe that expanding gifted programs to every neighborhood will help integrate schools. Others argue that the programs exacerbate segregation.

Hundreds of charter schools have opened as gifted programs have closed, absorbing tens of thousands of black and Hispanic students into academically rigorous classrooms.

Though some charter students outperform their white suburban peers on state exams, that has not always translated into success on the specialized school test. Since charter students sometimes cannot afford prep or are not steered towards the specialized schools, charters’ track record on elite school admissions has raised questions about whether preparation specific to the entrance exam can outweigh academic prowess or performance on other standardized tests. Specialized school offers to charter students would more than double under Mr. de Blasio’s plan.

Prep for Prep, a training program that helps high-performing black, Hispanic and Asian students get into prestigious New York private schools, accepts only about 200 students a year. Some have argued that Prep for Prep recruits smart black and Hispanic students who might have otherwise attended a specialized school. But even if every Prep for Prep student were accepted into a specialized high school, they would still represent only a small fraction of the schools’ 5,000 or so offers for freshman seats.

Leonard Noisette, who graduated from Stuyvesant in 1975 and works in philanthropy, remembered walking to his academically accelerated elementary school just three blocks from his childhood home in Jamaica, Queens. In fourth grade, he was bused to a middle school for gifted students in another part of the borough.

By the time he got to Stuyvesant, which he said he remembers “very fondly,” he couldn’t help but think of the mostly poor and black classmates he had left behind in Queens.

“I remember feeling pretty resentful of the fact that I was getting exposed to a type of education that some of my friends weren’t in the neighborhood schools — it was pretty noticeable,” Mr. Noisette, 62, said. “The situation we’re talking about now is just magnified.”

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Showing 82 database articles primarily about Test Scores

Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at a Public University System

Theodore Joyce, Mina Afrouzi Khosroshahi, Sarah Truelsch, Kerstin Gentsch, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 25, 2026
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SAT scores are known to be better predictors of college and post-college success in Ivy+ universities. By contrast, this study of a public urban university system with 11 colleges shows that for the 2010–2019 cohort, high school GPA strongly dominates SAT scores.

Many of the country’s most selective colleges have returned to requiring the SAT, based on evidence that the test not only predicts student success, but facilitates the identification of qualified applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. The results from our study of a large public urban university system find the opposite: high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT. We undertake an exercise with binned scatter plots of six year graduation rates against HSGPA [High School Grade Point Average] stratified by URM [under-represented minority] and whether the student received the maximum Pell grant (Figures 1a and 1b). [Note that SAT is included in the regression so the monotonic linear effect of GDP remains after controlling for SAT score]. We find that URM are less likely to graduate in six years at every level of HSGPA than are non-URM. In contrast, we find no similar difference when we stratify the plot by whether the student received the max Pell grant or not, a strong proxy for a low-income household (Figure 1b). The clear takeaway from the analysis of the 2010-2019 cohorts is the dominance of HSGPA in predicting student academic success. The results are in direct contrast to recent high-profile analyses of students from Ivy-plus colleges that demonstrated the superiority of SAT over HSGPA in predicting not only first-year academic outcomes, but post-college success as well.

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  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
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The Lost Generation

Jacob Savage Compact Magazine
Date Posted:
December 17, 2025
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Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and tech during the 2010s is a key driver of contemporary political dynamics among young men.

Jacob Savage argues that the widespread discrimination against young white men in “high-status” sectors such as media and...
In 2011, the year I moved to Los Angeles, white men were 48% of lower-level TV writers; by 2024, they accounted for just 11.9%. The Atlantic’s editorial staff went from 53% male and 89% white in 2013 to 36% male and 66% white in 2024. White men fell from 39% of tenure-track positions in the humanities at Harvard in 2014 to 18% in 2023. The white men shut out of the culture industries didn’t surge into other high-status fields. At Google, white men went from nearly half the workforce in 2014 to less than a third by 2024—a 34% decline. In 2014, at Amazon, entry-level “professionals”—college graduates just starting out—were 42.3% white male. These were the employees who, if they’d advanced normally over the next decade, would be the mid-level managers of today. But mid-level Amazon managers fell from 55.8% white male in 2014 to just 33.8% in 2024—a decline of nearly 40%. In retrospect, 2014 was the hinge, the year DEI became institutionalized across American life.

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  • Military Officer Quality in the All-Volunteer Force — A sharp and steady decline in the GCT scores of Marine Corps officers occurred btw 1980 and 2014. 96% of this is explained by the widening (and weakening) of…
  • US PISA Results By Subpopulation — Breaking down the 2022 PISA math results by subpopulation, @cremieuxrecueil finds that US Asians and whites topped the charts, scoring on par with top…
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Twelfth-Grade Math and Reading Scores in U.S. Hit New Low

Matt Barnum Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
September 9, 2025
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New National Assessment of Educational Progress results show the share of American high school seniors who scored basic or above on national tests fell to the lowest level on record: 68% in reading and 55% in math.

American high-school seniors’ scores on major math and reading tests fell to their lowest levels on record, according to results released Tuesday by the U.S. Education Department. Twelfth-graders’ average math score was the worst since the current test began in 2005, and reading was below any point since that assessment started in 1992. The share of 12th-graders who were proficient slid by 2 percentage points between 2019 and 2024—to 35% in reading and 22% in math. The results are from tests that are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered to tens of thousands of students in early 2024. In reading, two-thirds of seniors could determine the purpose of a persuasive essay, but only one in five was able to draw a conclusion from such an essay, supported by the text. In math, 60% of students deduced the population of an area using information on size and density, while just under half correctly turned a real-world scenario into an algebraic expression.

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  • Many Children Left Behind: The 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress Results Indicate a Five-Alarm Fire — The 2024 NAEP results show that 40% of fourth graders are “below basic” in reading proficiency, relative to 30% who are “at or above proficient.” 39% of…
  • Have Humans Passed Peak Brain Power? — Citing PISA results @jburnmurdoch notes the share of adults in high income countries who can not “use mathematical reasoning when reviewing and…
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Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges

John Friedman, Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas Staiger, and Michele Tine National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
March 18, 2025
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Students at Ivy-plus colleges whose SAT/ACT scores were at the 99th percentile had 1st-year college GPAs 0.43 points higher than those who had scored at the 75th percentile, while high school GPAs had little predictive power. @John_N_Friedman

We analyze admissions and transcript records for students at multiple Ivy-Plus colleges to study the relationship between standardized (SAT/ACT) test scores, high school GPA, and first-year college grades. Standardized test scores predict academic outcomes with a normalized slope four times greater than that from high school GPA, all conditional on students’ race, gender, and socioeconomic status. Standardized test scores do not underpredict college performance for students from less advantaged backgrounds. Collectively these results suggest that standardized test scores provide important information to measure applicants’ academic preparation that is not available elsewhere in the application file. While some of the raw correlation between these variables relates to students’ demographic characteristics, much remains even when controlling for these variables. In contrast, high school GPA does not predict academic performance nearly as well. We also find no evidence of bias against students from less advantaged backgrounds, as students from such backgrounds do not outperform (and in some cases underperform) other students with the same test score

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  • Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges — .@OppInsights finds that the “Ivy-Plus” (Ivy League, plus UChicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford) admit students from the highest income families scoring in the top 1%…
  • Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges — Students at Ivy-Plus colleges with 99th percentile SAT/ACT scores earned a first-year college GPA 0.43 points higher than students who scored at the 75th…
  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
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Can Gifted Education Help Higher-Ability Boys from Disadvantaged Backgrounds?

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
February 21, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Card et al, find that the 25-30 percentage point college enrollment gap between disadvantaged boys and girls with IQs of ~116 closed among students who qualified for a “gifted” program. @EricChyn

We study the effects of being identified as gifted in elementary school on subsequent test scores, courses and grades, and on the probability of entering college, for disadvantaged children in a large urban school district (“the District”). The law specifies a threshold of 130 [IQ] points for non-disadvantaged students, but allows districts to select a lower “Plan B” threshold [116 pts] for FRL and ELL students. The strict IQ threshold for gifted status provides the basis for a regression discontinuity (RD) evaluation of the impacts of being identified as gifted. Figure 6 illustrates how these impacts affect gender gaps by presenting the estimated mean potential outcomes for the complying boys (left side) and complying girls (right side) using an 8-point bandwidth. The estimated college entry rate for male compliers who narrowly miss the gifted threshold is 46%; the 28 ppt treatment effect of passing the threshold raises this to 74%, which equals the rate for female compliers who narrowly miss the threshold - being identified as gifted raises the college entry rate of marginally eligible boys to the same rate as girls.

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  • Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market — .@ProfDavidDeming and @m_silliman find “the economic return to social skills in the US more than doubled” between the 1980s and the 2000s, and argue for a…
  • Multidimensional Human Capital and the Wage Structure — The return to cognitive skills has declined since 2000 and there has been rising demand for “social skills.” “Jobs with the most employment and earnings growth…
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Covid Learning Losses

David Leonhardt New York Times
Date Posted:
February 12, 2025
Is Database:
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.@DLeonhardt reports a sharp partisan gap in learning loss: 8 of the 10 states with the biggest math declines since 2019 – likely due to prolonged school closures – voted Democratic, while 8 of the 10 smallest shortfalls voted Republican.

Many public schools in heavily Democratic areas stayed closed for almost a year — from the spring of 2020 until the spring of 2021. In some Republican areas, by contrast, schools remained closed for only the spring of 2020. Eight of the 10 states that have lost the most ground since 2019 voted Democratic in recent presidential elections. And eight of the 10 states with the smallest math shortfalls voted Republican. [Higher initial scores don’t] explain the post-pandemic patterns. For example, New Jersey (a blue state) and Utah (a red state) both had high math scores in 2019, but New Jersey has fared much worse since then.

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