Edward Conard

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  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
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  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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$773 Million Later, de Blasio Ends Signature Initiative to Improve Failing School

Eliza Shapiro New York Times
Date Posted:
February 26, 2019
Is Database:
Database

NYC’s $773m Renewal program, aimed at revitalizing failing schools, was terminated by Mayor de Blasio after 3 years due to insufficient progress.

NYC’s $773m Renewal program, aimed at revitalizing failing schools, was terminated by Mayor de Blasio after 3 years...
Despite a $773m investment, NYC's Renewal program, aimed at revitalizing failing schools, was terminated by Mayor de Blasio after three years due to insufficient progress. The initiative, which focused on resource allocation rather than teacher effectiveness, saw only 25% of schools improve enough to exit the program, while another quarter closed. The remaining schools continue to receive support without the Renewal label. The program's mixed results highlight the challenges of reforming large urban school systems, as bureaucratic confusion and uneven academic outcomes persisted. While some schools saw improvements in graduation rates and attendance, the overall impact fell short of expectations, leading to dwindling enrollment as parents sought alternatives. The program's end underscores the difficulty of finding effective solutions for struggling schools in major cities, despite significant financial investments.

“…Mayor Bill de Blasio is canceling one of his signature education initiatives, acknowledging thatdespite spending $773 million he was unable to turn around many long-struggling public schools in three years after decades of previous interventions had also failed…” Eliza Shapiro, “$773 Million Later, de Blasio Ends Signature Initiative to Improve Failing School,” New York Times, February 26, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/26/nyregion/renewal-initiative-de-blasio.html $773 Million Later, de Blasio Ends Signature Initiative to Improve Failing Schools

“The era of closing schools has come to an end,” the mayor said.

Mr. de Blasio insisted on Monday that developing a close relationship with the teachers’ union has led to a stronger school system. He said that ongoing conflict between Mr. Bloomberg’s administration and the U.F.T. led to “paralysis and conflict,” and he pointed to the national turn away from education reform and toward teachers, as is evident in the recent wave of teacher strikes and growing political hostility toward charter schools.

But because the program was based on the union-friendly theory that struggling schools need more resources, rather than more effective teachers, Mr. Mulgrew may face fresh questions about not only the execution but the design of the program.

Many advocacy groups and local politicians, including Mr. de Blasio, then the public advocate, railed against school closures. The city’s teachers’ union, the United Federation of Teachers, was the most powerful lobby against closures. The union’s president, Michael Mulgrew, who has a close ear to the ground in schools, has been critical of the Renewal program’s execution.

Mr. Bloomberg’s small schools planled to an increase in high school graduation rates and students going to college, all at a lower cost to the city than students in other types of schools, according to aseries of studies.But while results were encouraging, the plan did not rescue all the schools it touched: More than a third of the schools that ended up on the original Renewal list were created during Mr. Bloomberg’s tenure.

Renewal was created in part as a rebuke to former mayor Michael R.Bloomberg’s plan to fix long-suffering schools, which relied on shuttering more than 100 schools and opening dozens of smaller schools with specific themes in their place, typically staffed by new principals and different teachers. Mr. Bloomberg put a heavy emphasis on using data to make decisions about schools, and Mr. de Blasio’s administration now seems to be heading in that direction.

Mr. de Blasio’s administration should have been quicker to replace principals in the schools that were taking the longest time to improve, according to the report, and should have avoided marking schools with a label that denoted poor performance, which scared off parents.

Suspensions also dropped by more than 50 percent across all Renewal schools during that same period, which is notable since many of the schools had discipline issues, and attendance crept up by about 4 percent over the last four years.

The Renewal schools that did succeed tended to have particularly strong principals, according to a report prepared by city officials about the end of the program, and an emphasis on using student achievement data to identify problems. The high schools in the program, which used a structured data-tracking system, made the most collective progress: The average graduation rate rose to 72 percent last year, up from 52 percent in 2014.

That strategy will technically apply to all schools in the system, though the initial focus will be on schools that State Education Department officials consider low-performing. Schools will not be publicly labeled low-performing, in part to avoid the stigma that the Renewal label gave schools, which city officials believe led to dwindling enrollment as parents searched for other options.

Renewal will not be replaced by an entirely different school improvement program. Instead, the city will direct funding and academic support to schools most in need of help, under a strategy it is calling comprehensive school support, by consulting student achievement data under a new centralized data system known as Edu Stat.

“We put ourselves on this very aggressive three-year timeline. In retrospect, that was probably an unrealistic timeline in some cases,” he said. Mr. de Blasio eventually added a fourth year to the program.

Mr. de Blasio said he is confident that those schools are “on a path for success,” even though they are taking more time to change than his administration first hoped.

Though about a quarter of the schools improved enough to exit the program after three years, another quarter closed, and the remaining 50 will remain open but in a limbo state: They will continue to receive indefinitely much of the same support they did as Renewal schools, but without the Renewal label. The city could still close any of these schools in future years, officials said.

“We defined success as whether most of the schools could move substantially in the right direction — and that, we got,” Mr. de Blasio added.

“We never said from day one, ‘We guarantee all of them will become paradise,’” he said, referring to the schools in the program. “We knew that there could well be closures and ones that didn’t work.”

Though only about 25 percent of the schools in the program have improved enough to require less investment and support on the four-year timeline Mr. de Blasio established, the mayor insisted that Renewal still achieved its “core mission.”

Mr. de Blasio said the reorganization of the Department of Education’s behemoth bureaucracy, undertaken last year by his schools chancellor, Richard A. Carranza, would help smooth out the confusing lines of authority that led to frustration among principals and teachers in Renewal schools.

“I’m at peace that with the information we had and the structure we had at the time, it was a sensible approach,” he said. But he added, “I would not do it again that way.”

In a lengthy interview on Monday, Mr. de Blasio defended the goals of the program, but said its execution was flawed.

As education fads have come and gone, politicians have flipped between school improvement models based on punitive measures like closure and teacher firing and softer approaches that rely on pouring resources into schools.

While some small cities like Lawrence, Mass., and Camden, N.J., have achieved some success with different strategies, no large school system has cracked the code, despite decades of often costly attempts.

The question of how to fix broken schools is a great unknown in education, particularly in big city school districts.

The New York Timesreported in October that Mr. de Blasio was preparing to close Renewal, and that city officials had known some Renewal schools were likely to fail but had left most of them open anyway. As a result, officials essentially kept thousands of children in classrooms where they had little if any chance of thriving.

Instead, the program has been plagued by bureaucratic confusion and uneven academic results since Mr. de Blasio began it in 2014. Though some of the nearly 100 low-performing public schools have shown better results, many have fallen short of the improvements that Mr. de Blasio predicted. The Renewal label itself caused parents to seek other options, causing enrollment in some schools to plummet.

The end of the initiative, called Renewal, is a blow to Mr. de Blasio, who had hoped that success would bolster his effort to build a national reputation for innovative policies. Urban educators around the country had also looked to Renewal as a model for improving underperforming schools in historically troubled districts, rather than closing them.

Mayor Bill de Blasio is canceling one of his signature education initiatives, acknowledging that despite spending $773 million he was unable to turn around many long-struggling public schools in three years after decades of previous interventions had also failed.

  • Education
    • K-12
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Showing 56 database articles primarily about Education

To Fix Education, Fix The Economy First

John Burn-Murdoch Financial Times
Date Posted:
August 7, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Using OECD skills data and the Luxembourg Income Study, Burn-Murdoch finds US workers at the lowest levels of literacy and numeracy earn ~ on par with British workers scoring a 2, ~ a mean score.

30% of US adults have literacy skills typical of a 10-year-old. The same proportion of US workers who score stunningly low on literacy earn an average of almost $30 per hour, and two-thirds of them are in work. Their British counterparts make the equivalent of $20 and fewer than half are employed. This all looks more like the fruits of years of stronger growth than vocational education policy. We should view education as creating potential that a strong economy unleashes (and a weak one disappoints).

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  • Do Adults Have the Skills They Need to Thrive in a Changing World? — The 2023 OECD Survey of Adult Skills reveals the US has ~ 3 low-scorers for every high-scorer. Germany has nearly 3X as many high-scorers per low-scorer as the…
  • Toward An Understanding Of The Returns To Cognitive Skills Across Cohorts — Wage returns to cognitive skill have declined for white men who took the Armed Forces Qualifying Test (AFQT) in 1997 relative to 1979, driven primarily by a…
  • Cognitive Skills Beyond Childhood — Data from a British birth cohort followed since 1958 show that cognitive skills early in life predict wages at age 50 better than cognitive skills at age 50…
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Meritocracy and the Networks It Forged: China’s Imperial Examination

Ying Bai and Ruixue Jia National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
August 3, 2026
Is Database:
Database

From 1644–1905, Qing China staffed its bureaucracy through exams and patronage. Only 12.6% of exam graduates reached top office, but patronage favored stronger performers, illustrating how merit and connections can be complements rather than substitutes.

Figure 5 studies the interplay between merit and networks by estimating the effects of exam performance and ties to powerful examiners separately for the high- and low-performing categories. The left panel shows the effects of exam performance for the two categories, while the right panel presents those of examiner power. Two patterns stand out. First, exam performance matters more for the high category, consistent with the institutional design that steered this elite group toward more prestigious careers. Second, ties to powerful examiners are also more valuable for the high category, pointing to a complementarity between merit and networks. To understand the implications of our finding on complementarity, it is useful to contrast it with the counterfactual of substitution. When merit and networks are complements (rather than substitutes), those who attained top office tend to exhibit both stronger exam performance and stronger connections. By contrast, under substitution, strong networks would compensate for weaker exam performance, and vice versa. Complementarity implies [a higher degree of meritocracy than substitution, as] successful candidates appear to have had better performance. Second, complementarity makes it harder to identify the influence of networks: their effects can operate under the guise of merit rather than as a visible substitute for it.

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  • Elite Strategies for Big Shocks: The Case of the Fall of the Ming — Carol Shiue and Wolfgang Keller find that descendants of elites that lost status after the fall of the Ming Dynasty in 1644 regained elite status in subsequent…
  • The Inheritance Of Social Status: England, 1600 to 2022 — Gregory Clark @PNASNews finds that social status in England was strongly correlated across generations between 1600 and 2022, consistent with a theory of…
  • For Whom the Bell Curve Tolls: A Lineage of 400,000 English Individuals 1750-2020 Shows Genetics Determines Most Social Outcomes — Research by @GregoryClark indicates that social outcomes in the UK are largely predetermined by birth, driven by highly assortative mating around status…
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The Returns to Education: A Meta-Study

Gregory Clark and Christian Alexander Abildgaard Nielsen Kyklos
Date Posted:
February 11, 2026
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Clark and Nielsen replicate the ~8% estimates of the return to education obtained by standard methods, but find evidence of selection biases in favor of high estimated returns. After correcting for these biases, they calculate returns on the order of 3%.

In this meta-study of 79 estimates of the causal effects of education on earnings (derived from increases of the mandated school-leaving age or legislation banning child labor under certain ages), we report a similar effect to [the classic] earlier study (Ashenfelter, et al): an 8.2% gain in earnings for each year of education. We also find clear evidence of significant publication biases. Studies passing the filter of publication were more likely to have coefficients statistically significantly greater than 0, and we observe strong evidence that studies with returns estimated at less than 0 were more difficult to publish. There is strong suggestive evidence of the first publication bias in the data. Figure 6 shows that the average estimated return rises substantially where the standard error is larger. This suggests a greater likelihood of an estimate being published when it was statistically significantly different from 0. If all estimates were published independent of the estimated return, we would not expect there to be such a gradient. Correcting the first publication bias by looking at the average return on the studies with the lowest standard errors would suggest an average causal return to education of no more than 3%, compared to the reported 8.2%. Independent of this, correcting for the omission of returns less than 0 implies an overall causal return to education only in the 0%–3% range.

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Marginal Admission to Elite High Schools: Long-run Effects on Labor Market Outcomes

Francisco Cabrera-Hernández, Andrew Dustan, Daniel Osuna Gomez and María Padilla-Romo National Bureau of Economic Research
Date Posted:
January 22, 2026
Is Database:
Database

In data from the Mexico City metro area over 2003–2009, students who just missed the exam score cutoff for admission to an elite high school have 5.3% higher wages after five years (2.5% after 10 years) than marginally admitted students.

[We] trace out the [harmful] causal impact of [marginal] assignment to an elite school [as opposed to just missing the admissions cutoff] on formal private labor market outcomes over time. Five years after the assignment process (at ages 19-20, beyond high school age), elite assignment [based on a test score marginally above the cutoff] causes a 3.2pp decline in the probability of ever having held a formal job. This is a 16% decline relative to the base rate of 20% for students missing the elite cutoff by one point. Over time, this elite disadvantage declines: after 10 years (at ages 24-25, after the typical age of college graduation), the effect is -2.1pp, while after 15 years (at ages 29-30) the estimated -0.2pp impact is statistically insignificant. While the negative effect on formal employment eventually fades, it leaves elite students with a deficit in formal labor market experience. After 5 years, elite assignment reduces the cumulative number of months with a formal job by 14%. Conditional on formal employment, marginal elite assignment causes a reduction in wages that fades out over time. Five years after assignment, elite assignment reduces wages by 5.3%. This reduction declines to 2.6% after 10 years, and [essentially vanishes] after 15 years.

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Plunging US Birth Rate Leaves Too Many Colleges With Too Few Kids

Elizabeth Rembert, Amanda Albright and Marie Patino Bloomberg
Date Posted:
January 16, 2026
Is Database:
Database

As America’s demographics roll over, smaller public and private liberal arts colleges have “already hit the precipice.” Btw 2003 and 2024, more than 100 public campuses closed, and ~ 2/3 of private for-profit colleges have shut down since the 2010s.

The country’s tumbling birth rate is pushing schools toward a “demographic cliff,” where a steadily dropping population of people in their late teens and early 20s will leave desks and classrooms empty. Many smaller, lesser-known schools have already hit the precipice. They’re firing professors, paring back liberal arts courses in favor of STEM — or closing altogether. Others will likely reach the cliff in the next few years. Although it has plunged since the 1950s, the US birth rate ticked upward slightly before the 2008 financial crisis, and that brief demographic boost has kept enrollment at larger schools afloat. But the nationwide pool of college-aged Americans is expected to shrink after 2025. The financial pressure will be relentless. “If colleges were facing a stark decline in one or two cohorts, higher ed could likely say, ‘Well, we could admit a few additional students and tighten our belts to muddle through,’” said Nathan Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College in Minnesota, who has written books about education and demographics. “But it’s one year after another of contraction, of ratcheting up the pressure.”

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How Mississippi Transformed Its Schools From Worst to Best

Sarah Mervosh New York Times
Date Posted:
January 13, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Controlling for poverty and demographics, Mississippi has the best outcomes for fourth-grade reading and math, and is near the top in eighth-grade scores. In absolute terms, “eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math.”

Controlling for poverty and demographics, Mississippi has the best outcomes for fourth-grade reading and math, and is near...
Adjusted for poverty and other student demographics, Mississippi is No. 1 for fourth grade reading and math, and at or near the top in eighth grade, according to the Urban Institute. Mississippi’s gains have been confined mostly to the early years, where the state has focused its efforts. The system revolves around standardized testing, and the gains have not always persisted. By raw scores, Mississippi eighth graders still rank 41st on national tests for reading, and 35th for math. The state pushed through a vast list of other changes from the top down, including changing the way reading is taught, in an approach known as the science of reading, but also embracing contentious school accountability policies other states have backed away from. Unlike No Child Left Behind, the Bush-era federal law that set a goal of having every child in America be proficient in reading and math, Mississippi also measures how much students progress toward proficiency. Schools get credit if students show improvement — and double credit for the improvement of students in the bottom 25%.

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