The pace of deceleration is even more striking under our revised forecast path, and by some measures, the trend is already at or near 2%. Far from facing a widely expected “last mile” problem, core PCE inflation appears to have slowed from 4% annualized in 2023H1 to 1.9% annualized in 2023H2, according to our revised estimate. We have also made small revisions to our forecasts of future months based on details of this week’s inflation data. A firmer November used car print means more payback later, and a faster pace of shelter inflation now means that more of the gap between continuing tenant rents and market rates has closed, meaning less catch-up and a somewhat faster deceleration later.
- Date Posted:
- December 13, 2023
More than 485,000 US workers went on strike in 2023 as unions launched an estimated 317 work stoppages, more than any time in the past two decades, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Law. Labour economists at Cornell University estimate that 310,000 workers were on strike in October alone. The UAW plans to use its wins at the bargaining table to recruit more union members. It has announced a sweeping effort to organise workers at the US plants of more than a dozen non-unionised carmakers, including Tesla, Toyota, and Volkswagen. The UAW is encouraging unions across the US, in every sector, to time their contract expiration dates to the UAW’s; in the US, most union contracts contain clauses that only allow workers to strike when the contract expires. By telling other unions to line up their contract expiration dates with the UAW’s, the autoworkers’ union is trying to lay the groundwork for sweeping industrial action that could extend beyond the auto industry.