Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Population growth since 2020 has been concentrated in southern cities and across most of the West except its largest metros such as San Francisco, San Jose, and Portland, while the Midwest and Northeast have lost population, especially in smaller towns. Larger places continue to grow faster than smaller ones, though by a narrower margin than before 2020.

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics
Date Posted:

New 2020-23 Census data shows growth in cities is outpacing that of smaller towns. Big southern cities grew the most, while New York City showed a net loss of 500,000, depopulating faster than it did during the 1970s. @AzizSunderji

Where is population growing and shrinking across US regions and city sizes?

Core argument: Population change since 2020, ranked by place size within each Census division, shows the strongest growth in southern cities and shrinking populations across the Midwest and Northeast, especially in smaller towns.

A clear trend is that smaller towns are generally shrinking more rapidly, or growing more slowly, than large cities. That said, this trend predates the pandemic, and the differential has shrunk. In other words, big places are growing faster than small places, but by a smaller margin than before 2020. Putting all of these trends together—the growing South, New York City cratering, and the larger cities generally growing faster than smaller ones—we get the figure above. It ranks places by size, within each Census division, and measures percent population changes since 2020. Places with the strongest population growth are in green: The hottest growth is a distillation of all of these trends: southern cities are booming. The West is growing in all but the largest places, like San Francisco, San Jose, and Portland. Meanwhile, the population has been shrinking in the Midwest and Northeast, especially in smaller towns.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Population change since 2020, ranked by place size within each Census division, shows the strongest growth in southern cities and shrinking populations across the Midwest and Northeast, especially in smaller towns.
  2. Larger places continue to grow faster than smaller towns, a pattern that predates the pandemic, though the differential between big and small places has narrowed since 2020.
  3. The West is growing in all but its largest places, such as San Francisco, San Jose, and Portland, while New York City's population has cratered.

Related Articles:

  • Young Families Have Not Returned to Large Cities Post-Pandemic — The under-five population in large urban U.S. counties fell 6.1% while overall population in those counties fell 0.9%, with declines exceeding 10% in the largest counties including New York, Cook County, Illinois, and Los Angeles. Losses of young families were more severe in the Mid-Atlantic and West Coast, while the under-five population grew in Southeastern urban counties.
  • Southern Comforts — Migration into southern metropolitan areas such as Austin, San Antonio, Jacksonville, and Tampa has continued, and the South also has a higher birth rate than other census regions. Growth has been uneven: Florida's GDP rose 20% and Texas and Tennessee 15% against a US average of 11%, while Oklahoma and Louisiana contracted.
  • On the Move: Homebuyer Insights and the Housing Challenge — Bank of America internal data indicate that Gen Z and Millennials account for the net population growth in metropolitan areas where growth is accelerating, most notably Columbus and Austin. In shrinking metro areas such as New York and Washington D.C., population is declining faster among older generations than younger ones.
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