Edward Conard

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AI Summary. U.S. manufacturing job growth since the pandemic is occurring disproportionately in counties least exposed to Chinese import competition in the 2000s, according to an analysis of federal employment and wage data. The counties hardest hit by that import competition still have fewer manufacturing jobs than before the pandemic.

Connor O'Brien and Adam Ozimek Agglomerations
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.@ModeledBehavior @cojobrien finds that the current expansion is the first time in 50 years that manufacturing jobs have fully recovered from a recession, but the recovery is not reaching areas hit by the “China Shock.”

Is manufacturing job growth reaching communities hit hardest by Chinese imports?

Core argument: U.S. counties most exposed to Chinese import competition in the 2000s still have fewer manufacturing jobs than before the pandemic, according to an analysis of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data.

Is the historic recovery in manufacturing employment since the pandemic actually reaching [economically struggling] places? Not yet. One place to look is the communities hit hardest by the “China Shock.” These are the parts of the U.S. whose local manufacturing ecosystems took the biggest hit from cutthroat competition from Chinese imports in the 2000s. While policymakers are hoping that the manufacturing boom will finally bring relief to these communities, post-pandemic manufacturing job growth is disproportionately happening in places that were least exposed to the China Shock. Breaking down U.S. counties by the degree to which they were exposed to competition from Chinese imports during the 2000s, we used the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to find that the most exposed places are not participating in the manufacturing employment boom. Indeed, the hardest-hit places still have fewer manufacturing jobs than they did before the pandemic.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. counties most exposed to Chinese import competition in the 2000s still have fewer manufacturing jobs than before the pandemic, according to an analysis of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data.
  2. Post-pandemic manufacturing job growth is disproportionately occurring in U.S. counties that were least exposed to the China Shock, rather than in the communities whose manufacturing ecosystems were hit hardest.
  3. Policymakers hope the manufacturing boom will bring relief to communities hit by the China Shock, but those places are not yet participating in the employment recovery.

Related Articles:

  • Manufacturing Jobs Have Recovered, But Not Everywhere — U.S. manufacturing employment recovered the 650,000 jobs lost in the 2020 recession, rising above 12.9m workers and exceeding the pre-pandemic level of 12.8m — the first such post-recession recovery since the late 1970s. Even so, manufacturing's share of private-sector employment fell from 31% in 1970 to 9.7%.
  • The Mysterious Slowdown in U.S. Manufacturing Productivity — US manufacturing labor productivity growth slowed broadly after the Great Recession, with the four largest firms in each industry averaging –0.5% growth from 2010 to 2022 versus 3.7% from 1987 to 2007, and smaller follower firms showing an identical 4.2 percentage-point decline. The authors find the slowdown spans all industries and firm sizes.
  • Labor Market Conflict and the Decline of the Rust Belt — The authors argue that persistent labor market conflict in the Rust Belt's main industries lowered investment and productivity growth, shifting employment to the rest of the country, and estimate it accounts for roughly half the decline in the region's share of US manufacturing employment. Rising foreign competition plays a more modest quantitative role.
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