
While the failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank are significant market events, they should not knock the Fed off course. Tighter financial conditions might reduce the terminal federal funds rate. But the terminal rate was likely around 6% before SVB failed. The Fed still has some way to go. A lower terminal rate is no reason to avoid a 25 or 50 bps increase at this week’s meeting. By raising rates this week, the Fed has the opportunity to send two important signals: first, that it has confidence in the stability of the financial system, and second, that its resolve in fighting inflation is unshakable.