Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. US policy shifts can reverse quickly: an Eisenhower-era deportation surge reached 1.1m people before funding and political support collapsed, cutting deportations over 90% to 90,000 within two years. McKinley-era tariffs were followed by an inflation spike and a 100-seat Republican loss, the third largest House defeat since the Civil War.

Michael Cembalest J.P. Morgan
Date Posted:

Michael Cembalest notes that public support for Eisenhower’s deportation surge collapsed after 1.1mm Mexicans were expelled in 1954, and that McKinley’s tariffs caused an inflation spike leading to one of the largest midterm losses on record.

How quickly have aggressive US policy pushes been reversed?

Core argument: Eisenhower's deportation surge reached 1.1 million people in 1954, but within 18 months funding and political support collapsed, and deportations fell by over 90% to 90,000 in 1956.

Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes emanating from Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in US politics. Two examples: Eisenhower deportations and McKinley tariffs. Eisenhower’s deportation surge hit 1.1 million people in 1954 but within 18 months, funding and political support for the program collapsed; deportations fell by over 90% to just 90,000 in 1956. And in the 1890s, although McKinley tariffs were popular at the time (he championed them as House Ways and Means Committee Chair), they caused an almost immediate inflation spike after which the GOP lost 100 seats in the 1890 midterms. The GOP loss in 1890 is the third largest in the history of the House going back to the Civil War.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Eisenhower's deportation surge reached 1.1 million people in 1954, but within 18 months funding and political support collapsed, and deportations fell by over 90% to 90,000 in 1956.
  2. The McKinley tariffs, popular when he championed them as House Ways and Means Committee Chair, caused an almost immediate inflation spike, after which the GOP lost 100 House seats in the 1890 midterms.
  3. The GOP's 1890 House loss ranks as the third largest in the chamber's history going back to the Civil War.

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