“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
“Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University

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Animal Farm

J.P. Morgan Michael Cembalest

Date Posted:: May 15, 2024

Michael Cembalest @jpmorgan notes that the economic impact of the H5N1 outbreak could grow. At least 82mm American poultry livestock have been culled in an effort to control the spread, so far less than 1% of annual production.

H5N1 spreads among wild aquatic birds and is then passed to domesticated animals. The highly pathogenic strains result in 90%-100% poultry mortality rates within 48 hours. H5N1 has led to the death or culling of 82 million poultry livestock and $2-$3 billion in losses (when the disease is found, the entire flock is slaughtered). For context, the US poultry industry produces more than 9 billion chickens and turkeys each year. H5N1 has also spread to US cattle (36 herds in 9 states); farmers report reduced milk production in infected cattle, although the impact on milk supply has been limited so far and most infected cows do not develop severe symptoms or die. The global implications of H5N1 could be substantial now that poultry has surpassed pigs in terms of global consumption.

Ancient DNA Reveals Pervasive Directional Selection Across West Eurasia

Ali Akbari, Annabel Perry, Alison Barton, Mohammadreza Kariminejad, et al. Nature

Date Posted:: April 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians reveals that natural selection accelerated dramatically in the past 10,000 years, following the agricultural revolution. The strongest selection drove improved immune function and lighter skin pigmentation.

We present a method for detecting directional selection in ancient DNA time-series data that tests for consistent trends in allele frequency change over time, and apply it to 15,836 West Eurasians (10,016 with new data). We estimate selection coefficients at 9.7 million variants, enabling study of how Darwinian forces couple to allelic effects and shape the genetic architecture of complex traits. We focused on 12 traits of particular interest with significant signals from all three tests (Figure 4). One of the strongest signals is an increase over time in the PGS for light skin pigmentation. Type 2 diabetes risk factors give compelling signals of negative selection. We detected negative polygenic selection against alleles associated today with psychoses such as bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. We finally observed signals of selection for combinations of alleles that today are associated with three correlated behavioural traits: scores on intelligence tests, household income and years of schooling. An important caveat is [that] these effects were measured in industrialized societies, and it remains unclear how these relate to phenotypes that were adaptive in the past.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Analysis of 15,836 West Eurasians detected directional selection across 9.7 million variants, revealing that alleles for light skin pigmentation increased.
Type 2 diabetes risk alleles faced negative selection pressure across West Eurasian populations, indicating that Darwinian forces systematically reduced frequencies.

Self-Selection and the Diminishing Returns of Research

Lorenz Ekerdt and Kai-Jie Wu Working Paper

Date Posted:: December 9, 2024
Is Database:: Database

Ekerdt and Wu argue that the diminishing returns to research since the 1960s is a result of the 3X increase in the share of the labor force employed in research, which resulted in a transitional decline in the “average ability among researchers.”

We argue that a substantial portion of the declining productivity of research is the product of a transitional composition effect instead of a permanent phenomenon. We show that the share of the labor force employed in research has increased 3-fold since the 1960s. If workers are sorted into sectors according to ability, this rapid expansion cannot have been achieved without changing the average ability among researchers. If research is positively selected on ability, i.e., workers with a comparative advantage in research also tend to have an absolute advantage in research, the direction of this change is unambiguously negative. This source of diminishing returns is transitional because it is expected to fade away when the share of workers employed in research ceases to rise. Our results suggest that the average ability of researchers has fallen substantially. We find that separating transitional diminishing returns from permanent ones nearly doubles the long-run growth rate of per capita income predicted by a broad class of growth models.

The Next Battle in Higher Ed May Strike at Its Soul: Scholarship

Anemona Hartocollis The New York Times

Date Posted:: January 16, 2024
Is Database:: Database

Over 10,000 research papers were retracted in 2023 globally according to @Nature, up from 400 in 2010. The retractions are due to both increased scrutiny but also the rise of “paper writing mills” or low-quality journals.

A cottage industry of checking research papers sprung up in the last two decades, including Retraction Watch, the Center for Open Science, and Data Colada, a blog dedicated to unmasking research based on bad data. The number of retracted research papers has grown dramatically over time, to more than 10,000 retractions internationally in 2023, an annual record, according to the journal Nature, up from about 400 papers in 2010, when Retraction Watch began its work. This may be in part because the scrutiny has intensified, said Ivan Oransky, co-founder of Retraction Watch. Nature also blamed the rise of paper-writing mills. “What’s different this time is the levels at which this seems to be striking — Harvard and Stanford,” Dr. Oransky said. “These are cataclysmic events.”

Florida Ocean Temperatures At ‘Downright Shocking’ Levels

Dan Stillman Washington Post

Date Posted:: July 11, 2023
Is Database:: Database

Coastal waters in Florida are currently between 92 and 96 degrees vs. typical averages in the upper 80s. About 40% of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave according to @NOAA.

Much of Florida is seeing its warmest year on record, with temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. While some locations have been setting records since the beginning of the year, the hottest weather has come with an intense heat dome cooking the Sunshine State in recent weeks. That heat dome has made coastal waters extremely warm, including “downright shocking” temperatures of 92 to 96 degrees in the Florida Keys, meteorologist and journalist Bob Henson said Sunday in a tweet. “That’s boiling for them! More typically it would be in the upper 80s,” tweeted Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa. The hot waters around Florida are connected to record-breaking ocean heat worldwide. About 40 percent of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave, NOAA reported. That is the highest percentage on record, and it could reach 50 percent by September.

Earth Keeps Breaking Temperature Records Due to Global Warming

Will Mathis and Aaron Clark Bloomberg

Date Posted:: July 5, 2023
Is Database:: Database

The world’s global mean temperature reached a record 63°F on July 4th, topping a previous record of 62°F set in 2016.

The average worldwide temperature reached 17C (63F) on Monday, just above the previous record of 16.9C in August 2016, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The threshold only lasted a day. On Tuesday, the average temperature hit 17.2C.

Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones

Marta Serra-Garcia Science

Date Posted:: June 15, 2021
Is Database:: Database

Research in @ScienceAdvances finds papers that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, even after publication of replication failures.

A study in Science Advances reveals that papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate. This trend persists even after the publication of replication failures, with only 12% of subsequent citations acknowledging these failures. The quality of citations for nonreplicable papers is comparable to replicable ones, as measured by the impact factor of citing journals. Experts can predict which papers will replicate, yet nonreplicable papers are often published due to a trade-off between the perceived interest of results and reproducibility standards. This suggests a systemic issue in academic publishing where the allure of novel findings outweighs the importance of scientific rigor, potentially skewing economic and policy decisions based on unreliable data.

New paper from Science Advances highlights the replication problem in science, “….We use publicly available data to show that published papers in top psychology, economics, and general interest journals that fail to replicate are cited more than those that replicate. This difference in citation does not change after the publication of the failure to replicate. Only 12% of post replication citations of nonreplicable findings acknowledge the replication failure. Existing evidence also shows that experts predict well which papers will be replicated. Given this prediction, why are nonreplicable papers accepted for publication in the first place? A possible answer is that the review team faces a trade-off. When the results are more “interesting,” they apply lower standards regarding their reproducibility….”

Core result, “…Our main finding is that papers that fail to replicate in (5-7) are cited more than those that are replicable. We find no significant change in citation trends, even after the publication of the failed replication. Notably, only a minority of publications after the failed replications were published acknowledge the failure. The “quality” of citations of papers that failed to replicate is similar to that of papers that were replicated: We do not find a difference in how often the citations of nonreplicable publications are cited by others or in the impact factor of the journals in which citations are published…”

The evidence, "...Figure 1 shows the distribution of total citation counts by the end of 2019 of the papers included in the replication projects, separately depending on replicability for Nature/Science, economics journals, and psychology journals. Replicability is measured according to the criterion that the replication project featured a P value of 0.05 or lower in a two-sided test, with an effect in the same direction as the original test….”

Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones: Extended Excerpt Image 1

Marta Serra-Garcia and Uri Gneezy, "Nonreplicable publications are cited more than replicable ones,"Science Advances, May 21, 2021, https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/21/eabd1705

Michael Cembalest @jpmorgan notes that the economic impact of the H5N1 outbreak could grow. At least 82mm American poultry livestock have been culled in an effort to control the spread, so far less than 1% of annual production.

Related Articles:

Ancient DNA from 15,836 West Eurasians reveals that natural selection accelerated dramatically in the past 10,000 years, following the agricultural revolution. The strongest selection drove improved immune function and lighter skin pigmentation.

How has directional selection shaped genetic traits in West Eurasians?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

Related Articles:

Ekerdt and Wu argue that the diminishing returns to research since the 1960s is a result of the 3X increase in the share of the labor force employed in research, which resulted in a transitional decline in the “average ability among researchers.”

Related Articles:

Over 10,000 research papers were retracted in 2023 globally according to @Nature, up from 400 in 2010. The retractions are due to both increased scrutiny but also the rise of “paper writing mills” or low-quality journals.

Related Articles:

Coastal waters in Florida are currently between 92 and 96 degrees vs. typical averages in the upper 80s. About 40% of the world’s oceans are facing a marine heat wave according to @NOAA.

Related Articles:

The world’s global mean temperature reached a record 63°F on July 4th, topping a previous record of 62°F set in 2016.

Related Articles:

Research in @ScienceAdvances finds papers that fail to replicate receive more citations than those that do replicate, even after publication of replication failures.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI