“Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
“…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
“…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
“…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
“…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
“Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
“Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
“…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
“There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal

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Critical 1.5C Threshold Breached Over 12-Month Period for First Time

Attracta Mooney, Jana Tauschinski, and Steven Bernard Financial Times

Date Posted:: February 8, 2024

Mean sea surface temperatures are at a record high at the start of 2024 hitting 69.7F in January. The El Niño phenomenon is amplifying elevated sea surface temperatures.

Scientists said the global sea surface temperature reached a record high of almost 20.97C for January. It was the second-hottest sea surface temperature recorded for any month ever, with only August 2023 surpassing it at 20.98C. The El Niño phenomenon, which heats the Pacific Ocean surface and exacerbates global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, has contributed to sea temperature rises in recent months. But they warned that sea surface temperatures had already reached “new absolute records”, with a level of 21.12C recorded on February 4 surpassing the previous high reached last August. Last May the World Meteorological Organization said there was a 66 percent chance that the mean global temperature would temporarily surpass 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in “at least” one year by 2027.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Global sea surface temperature hit a record high of almost 20.97C for January, the second-hottest reading for any month, trailing only August 2023's 20.98C, according to scientists.
Scientists recorded a new absolute record sea surface temperature of 21.12C on February 4, surpassing the previous high set the prior August.
The World Meteorological Organization put the chance that the mean global temperature would temporarily exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in at least one year by 2027 at 66 percent.

Three Tough Truths About Climate

Bill Gates GatesNotes

Date Posted:: October 28, 2025
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Noting that over the past decade global CO2 emissions projected by the IEA have fallen by more than 40%, Bill Gates argues innovation will likely “give us the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions.”

Ten years ago, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2040, the world would be emitting 50 billion tons of carbon dioxide every year. Now, just a decade later, the IEA’s forecast has dropped to 30 billion, and it’s projecting that 2050 emissions will be even lower. Even if the world takes only moderate action to curb climate change, the current consensus is that by 2100 the Earth’s average temperature will probably be between 2°C and 3°C higher than it was in 1850. That’s well above the 1.5°C goal that countries committed to at the Paris COP in 2015. In fact, between now and 2040, we are going to fall far short of the world’s climate goals. One reason is that the world’s demand for energy is going up—more than doubling by 2050. Although wind and solar have gotten cheaper and better, we don’t yet have all the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions. But we will have the tools we need if we focus on innovation. With the right investments and policies in place, over the next ten years we will have new affordable zero-carbon technologies ready to roll out at scale. Add in the impact of the tools we already have, and by the middle of this century emissions will be lower and the gap between poor countries and rich countries will be greatly reduced.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The International Energy Agency has cut its 2040 global carbon dioxide emissions forecast from 50 billion tons, projected a decade ago, to 30 billion tons, and projects 2050 emissions will be lower still.
The current consensus holds that even with moderate climate action, Earth's average temperature in 2100 will probably be 2–3°C above 1850 levels, well above the 1.5°C goal countries committed to at the 2015 Paris COP.
Global energy demand is set to more than double by 2050, and despite wind and solar becoming cheaper and better, the tools to meet that demand without increasing carbon emissions do not yet all exist.

World’s Oceans Remain Near Record Temperatures as CO2 Levels Rise

Attracta Mooney and Steven Bernard Financial Times

Date Posted:: June 12, 2025
Is Database:: Database

The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hit their highest seasonal peak since records began, a global mean of 426 ppm.

The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming and fueling concerns about the seas’ ability to absorb rising levels of carbon dioxide. The EU’s Earth observation service Copernicus said the global average sea surface temperature in May was 20.79C, 0.14C below the record in the same month in 2024. The level of CO₂ in the atmosphere peaked globally at the mean of 426 parts per million in March, up from 423 ppm a year ago, and surpassed 430 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. Scientists estimate the ocean has absorbed between a quarter and about 30% of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and about 90% of excess heat, helping to keep temperatures on land cooler. But Michael Meredith, a scientist at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge, warned the ocean “may lose some of its capacity to buffer us against the worst extremes of climate change” by absorbing less warmth or carbon than previously. “We’re seeing stronger and stronger bursts of ocean warming — marine heatwaves — that are pushing us past records at an alarming rate.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Atmospheric CO₂ peaked globally at a mean of 426 parts per million in March, up from 423 ppm a year earlier, and surpassed 430 ppm at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
Scientists estimate the ocean has absorbed between a quarter and about 30% of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and about 90% of excess heat, and Michael Meredith of the British Antarctic Survey warned it may lose some of that buffering capacity.

China’s Soaring Emissions Are Upending Climate Politics

Brad Plumer and Mira Rojanasakul New York Times

Date Posted:: November 19, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

China’s cumulative carbon emissions since 1850 have outpaced Europe’s but are still 60% of the US’s level. China has been the world’s #1 carbon emitter since 2006.

The United States has burned more fossil fuels than anywhere else in history. Europe has long ranked No. 2 in total historical greenhouse gas emissions. Until now. And projections show that China may nearly catch up with the United States. Data for carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions from 1850 to 2023 is from Jones et al (2024); data for 2024 from Carbon Brief; projected data for 2025 to 2100 is based on the International Energy Agency’s “stated policies scenario” tracking nations’ climate actions. European Union totals were calculated for the current 27 member countries. Lines show cumulative territorial CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, cement, land use, land use change and forestry.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

China has passed the European Union's 27 current member states to become the world's second-largest source of cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.
Projections based on the International Energy Agency's "stated policies scenario" show China may nearly catch up with the United States, which has burned more fossil fuels than anywhere else in history.
The emissions series combines carbon dioxide-equivalent data from Jones et al (2024) for 1850–2023, Carbon Brief for 2024, and IEA-based projections for 2025–2100, covering fossil fuels, cement, and land use, land use change and forestry.

The Energy Transition Will Be Much Cheaper Than You Think

Economist Staff The Economist

Date Posted:: November 15, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Limiting global warming to the 2° target might be more affordable than projected due to slower economic growth and the ongoing decline in the cost of solar power, wind power, and lithium batteries as production volumes increase.

Economic modellers also have a poor record of predicting technological advances. They overestimate the take-up of some technologies (such as carbon capture and storage, whereby carbon dioxide is sucked out of the smokestacks of power stations and factories and stashed away safely underground) and severely underestimate the falling costs of others, most notably solar panels and lithium batteries. Rupert Way of the University of Cambridge and others have modelled an energy system in which the cost of solar power, wind power, lithium batteries and hydrogen electrolysers falls according to “Wright’s law”. This holds that every doubling of production sees unit costs fall by a fixed percentage, with that percentage derived from past experience. In this scenario emissions fall so rapidly that even the 1.5°C target can be met at minimal cost.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Rupert Way of the University of Cambridge and co-authors model an energy system in which solar power, wind power, lithium battery and hydrogen electrolyser costs follow "Wright's law," a scenario in which emissions fall fast enough to meet the 1.5°C target at minimal cost.
Wright's law holds that every doubling of production cuts unit costs by a fixed percentage, with that percentage derived from past experience.
Economic modellers have overestimated take-up of carbon capture and storage while severely underestimating the falling costs of solar panels and lithium batteries.

Take the Under

Roger Pielke Jr. The Honest Broker

Date Posted:: October 31, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

.@RogerPielkeJr argues that more realistic projections of global population and GDP growth suggest that “even partial future policy successes could more easily bring into view future emissions consistent with a 2C temperature target.”

Updated understandings of population and GDP suggest that, at a minimum, the “assumption space” used to generate scenarios needs to reorient away from extreme socio-economic assumptions and towards more realistic socio-economic scenarios consistent with observations of the real world. Every time global population GDP projections are revised down, the challenge of climate change appears that much more tractable. Of course, peak population and slower economic growth bring with them considerable societal and policy challenges of their own. “Current policy” projections are based on a very conservative set of assumptions — who thinks there will be no new climate and energy policies? — and many countries have committed to accelerating decarbonization. Conditional on slower-than-projected population and/or GDP growth, that means that even partial future policy successes could more easily bring into view future emissions consistent with a 2C temperature target. Basing our expectations on the latest understandings of population and GDP changes is thus essential for a clear-eyed view of climate and energy challenges.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

Downward revisions to global population and GDP projections make the challenge of climate change appear more tractable, according to the author, who argues the "assumption space" behind emissions scenarios should shift away from extreme socio-economic assumptions toward scenarios consistent with real-world observations.
"Current policy" emissions projections rest on the conservative assumption that no new climate and energy policies will be adopted, even though many countries have committed to accelerating decarbonization.
Conditional on slower-than-projected population and GDP growth, even partial future policy successes could more easily bring future emissions consistent with a 2C temperature target into view, though peak population and slower growth carry their own societal and policy challenges.

The Dangerous Effects Of Rising Sea Temperatures

Attracta Mooney, Steven Bernard and Jana Tauschinski Financial Times

Date Posted:: July 24, 2024
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

Oceans have absorbed 90% of the heat from human-caused carbon dioxide emitted during the industrial era, but some scientists are concerned that oceans may be reaching their limits in protecting the planet against the worst extremes of climate change.

Scientists are now trying to understand what has driven the rapid anomalous rise in sea temperatures, why that heat has lingered and whether the world’s seas will cool again. At the heart of these questions is a concern that the oceans may be reaching their limits in the vital role they play in protecting the planet against the worst extremes of climate change. They have absorbed 90% of excess heat and about a quarter of human-caused carbon dioxide emitted during the industrial era. “All that heat that’s going into the ocean is not going into the land surface or into the atmosphere, or into the ice caps,” says Michael Meredith, oceanographer and science leader at the British Antarctic Survey. “The ocean has been doing this huge climate favour for us for decades.” But he adds there is no guarantee it will continue doing so at the same rate. “If this does slow in future, the consequences will be like we saw in 2023 [the hottest year on record] but much more so.”

Takeaways by Macro Roundup^® AI

The world's oceans have absorbed 90% of excess heat and about a quarter of human-caused carbon dioxide emitted during the industrial era, heat that did not go into the land surface, atmosphere or ice caps.
Scientists are investigating what drove the rapid anomalous rise in sea temperatures, why that heat has lingered and whether the seas will cool again, amid concern that the oceans may be reaching the limits of their protective role.

Mean sea surface temperatures are at a record high at the start of 2024 hitting 69.7F in January. The El Niño phenomenon is amplifying elevated sea surface temperatures.

Has global warming exceeded 1.5C over a 12-month period?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Noting that over the past decade global CO2 emissions projected by the IEA have fallen by more than 40%, Bill Gates argues innovation will likely “give us the tools we need to meet the growing demand for energy without increasing carbon emissions.”

Have emissions forecasts improved even as climate goals go unmet?

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The world’s ocean temperatures reached the second-highest level on record for May, capping an “alarming” two-year streak of rapid warming. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hit their highest seasonal peak since records began, a global mean of 426 ppm.

Are ocean temperatures staying near record highs as carbon dioxide rises?

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China’s cumulative carbon emissions since 1850 have outpaced Europe’s but are still 60% of the US’s level. China has been the world’s #1 carbon emitter since 2006.

Is China now the second-largest source of historical emissions?

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Limiting global warming to the 2° target might be more affordable than projected due to slower economic growth and the ongoing decline in the cost of solar power, wind power, and lithium batteries as production volumes increase.

Will falling clean energy costs make cutting emissions far cheaper?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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.@RogerPielkeJr argues that more realistic projections of global population and GDP growth suggest that “even partial future policy successes could more easily bring into view future emissions consistent with a 2C temperature target.”

Do lower population and GDP projections make climate change more tractable?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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Oceans have absorbed 90% of the heat from human-caused carbon dioxide emitted during the industrial era, but some scientists are concerned that oceans may be reaching their limits in protecting the planet against the worst extremes of climate change.

Will the oceans keep absorbing most of the world's excess heat?

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

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