Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Local U.S. labor markets exposed to Chinese import competition have shown depressed wages and labor force participation and elevated unemployment for over a decade, along with more job churning and reduced lifetime income for workers. Nationally, employment has fallen in more exposed industries without offsetting gains appearing in other sectors.

David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson National Bureau of Economic Research
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Local Labor Markets Exposed To Trade Competition From China Saw Depressed LFP And Wages A Full Decade After “China Shock” Started” @AutorDavid @DavidDorn @GordonHanson @nberpub.

How long do import competition's labor market losses persist?

Core argument: U.S. local labor markets exposed to Chinese import competition saw wages and labor force participation remain depressed and unemployment elevated for over a decade after the onset of the China trade shock.

China's rise as a global economic power has significantly altered world trade patterns, leading to substantial adjustment costs in local labor markets exposed to foreign competition. These markets have experienced prolonged economic challenges, with wages and Labor Force Participation [LFP] rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates elevated for over a decade following the onset of the China trade shock. Workers in these areas face increased job churning and diminished lifetime income. Nationally, employment in U.S. industries more exposed to import competition has declined, with compensatory employment gains in other sectors yet to emerge. Understanding the nuanced impacts of trade on labor markets remains crucial for economists and policymakers.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. U.S. local labor markets exposed to Chinese import competition saw wages and labor force participation remain depressed and unemployment elevated for over a decade after the onset of the China trade shock.
  2. Workers in trade-exposed U.S. local labor markets experienced increased job churning and diminished lifetime income following China's rise as a global economic power.
  3. Employment in U.S. industries more exposed to import competition has declined nationally, with offsetting employment gains in other sectors yet to emerge.

“…China’s emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income.At the national level, employment has fallen in U.S. industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize. Better understanding when and where trade is costly, and how and why it may be beneficial, are key items on the research agenda for trade and labor economists….”

Autor, David, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson. “The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade.” National Bureau Of Economic Research, January 2016, http://www.nber.org/papers/w21906

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