I don’t think there has been much of a shift in global supply chains out of China. If you trust the Chinese data — the Chinese data here may be better, as the US data is influenced by tariff avoidance — US imports from China are slightly higher (as a share of GDP) than before the trade war. China’s overall data tells a story of the reglobalization of China’s economy after the pandemic. Exports to GDP had been trending down from 2010 to 2018 — but have moved up strongly in the past year. And there is no sign that the G-7 has already decoupled from China as a source of supply! (imports from China have boomed in the last 3 years) So decoupling, in my view, is a forecast — not a current reality. The pandemic increased the world’s reliance on China as a source of manufactured supply and increased China’s reliance on exports for demand!
- Date Posted:
- October 31, 2022