Edward Conard

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  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
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  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Moravec's Paradox holds that computers handle tasks humans find difficult, like advanced math, more easily than tasks humans find trivial, like making a bed — the very skills needed for elder care as populations fall. Tax breaks for fertility appear ineffective, while more and earlier marriage appears significant.

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde American Enterprise Institute
Date Posted:
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Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @AEIecon argues that AI is unlikely to deliver viable solutions for old-age care, and proposes that “the US should restructure its entire economic policy toward a family-oriented approach that facilitates marriage.”

Can tax breaks raise fertility, or does marriage matter more?

Core argument: The authors argue that addressing falling fertility carries an impact measured in discounted terms of quadrillions of dollars, though they remain uncertain about which policies would raise US birth rates.

Moravec’s Paradox: programming computers to perform tasks that most humans consider very difficult (e.g., advanced math) is much easier than programming them to carry out tasks that most humans find trivial (e.g., making a bed). Unfortunately, the problems we will face due to the falling population, such as the need for old-age care, require skills like making a bed and not doing advanced math. What can the US do to address the fertility crisis? This is the one-quadrillion-dollar question (yes, tackling fertility has an impact measured in discounted terms of quadrillions of dollars, not just small change like a miserly trillion dollars here or there). We remain uncertain. We know, for example, that offering tax breaks for fertility doesn’t seem to make much difference. Instead, marrying more people (and doing so earlier) does appear to be significant. The US should restructure its entire economic policy toward a family-oriented approach that facilitates marriage. Highlighting the main components of such a policy would merit an article in itself. However, it encompasses housing affordability, reforming the educational system, and enhancing the labor and social skills of many young men.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors argue that addressing falling fertility carries an impact measured in discounted terms of quadrillions of dollars, though they remain uncertain about which policies would raise US birth rates.
  2. Tax breaks for fertility do not appear to make much difference, while marrying more people and marrying earlier does appear to be significant, according to the authors.
  3. Moravec's Paradox implies that the care needs of an aging population, such as making a bed, are harder to program computers to perform than tasks like advanced math.

Related Articles:

  • The Wealth of Working Nations — Because of population aging, growth in GDP per capita and GDP per working-age adult have diverged across advanced economies; from 1998 to 2019 Japan's accumulated growth per working-age adult was 31.9% versus 29.5% in the US. The authors find a standard neoclassical growth model calibrated to each country's working-age population tracks output per working-age adult in most economies.
  • The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. population will grow from 350m to 372m over three decades, an average of 0.2% per year, less than a quarter of the 0.9% average annual rate from 1975 to 2024. Deaths are projected to exceed births beginning in 2033, with net immigration more than accounting for population growth thereafter.
  • World Depopulation: Prospects and Implications — The US is projected to account for a growing share of the rich world's labor force, youth, and highly educated talent, with continuing population and labor force growth and only moderate aging through 2050. Its fertility, though below replacement, exceeds that of East Asian and nearly all European countries, and sustained legal immigration is essential to this demographic advantage.
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