Overall both household and payroll employment are 1.5mm higher than CBO’s pre-pandemic projections. It doesn’t feel that long ago that people were talking about missing workers (talking about it for longer than was justified by the data I might add). Pretty much the only thing that went in the direction of tighter was average weekly hours ticked up but this series is noisy because of rounding and measurement issues. As a result, aggregate hours grew strongly as well. Average hourly earnings growth was the slowest in over a year and a half. This is noisy, subject to revision, but even adjusting for that perhaps the biggest sign of cooling in this report.
- Date Posted:
- August 31, 2023
Since February 2023, the labor force participation rate for prime-age women––those between the ages of 25 and 54––has exceeded its all-time high. As of the most recent jobs report, prime-age women had a labor force participation rate of 77.8%. We find that those who have contributed most to the rebound in overall labor force participation in April and May of 2023, three years after the nadir of pandemic-era participation, are in fact prime-age women. Moreover, among prime-age women and indeed among all groups, women whose youngest child is under the age of five are powering the pack’s upward trajectory.