“The Great Retirement Boom”: The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation

In October 2022, the retired share of the American population was 1½ percentage points above its pre-pandemic trend. These 3.5 million workers account for essentially all of the shortfall in labor force participation rates., “…Despite some improvement in the labor force participation rate for the working-age population since the early stages of the pandemic, the LFPR in October 2022 remained nearly 1½ percentage points below its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level (after making adjustments for changes in population weights introduced from the 2020 Census). The importance of retirements in accounting for this shortfall is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows the percentage of the working-age population that is not in the labor force for different reasons (black line) relative to February 2020, based on responses to the Current Population Survey. While earlier in the pandemic, factors other than retirements were an important contributor to elevated non-participation (such as non-participation while caregiving, the orange line), the percent of the population that was not in the labor force and retired (the “retired share”) has steadily increased and in October 2022 was almost 1½ percentage points above its pre-pandemic level, representing an increase of more than 3½ million retirees and accounting for essentially all of the total shortfall in the LFPR….”

The Evidence The pre-pandemic trend, “…Even in the absence of the pandemic, the retired share would likely have risen, albeit more gradually, due to shifts in the age distribution of the population toward ages traditionally associated with higher retired shares (primarily, the movement of the Baby Boomer cohort into older ages). As one illustration of the importance of population aging, Figure 2 plots the retired share (solid line) alongside a counterfactual trend (dashed line)….”

“…. This trend is an estimate of how the retired share would have evolved in the absence of the pandemic and is derived by assuming the continuation of pre-pandemic, age-specific trends in retired shares, assuming the state of the business cycle remained similar to pre-pandemic levels, and accounting for the actual changes in the age distribution over this period (in section III, we discuss in more detail the calculation of this and other counterfactual retired shares). Over the five years prior to the pandemic, the retired share increased about 0.2 percentage point per year, and plausibly would have continued increasing at a similar pace in the absence of the pandemic. As of October 2022, the retired share remained 0.6 percentage point above the pre-pandemic expected trend, or about 1.6 million people (Figure 2). This gap between the actual and expected lines is an estimate of “excess retirements,” and the excess retirements gap remains sizeable. In fact, the retired share was slightly below trend just prior to the pandemic (about 0.2 percentage point), implying that excess retirements as a share of the population have increased by about 0.8 percentage point since February 2020, or about 2.1 million people. That increase in excess retirements explains a little more than half of the 1.4 percentage point increase the total retired share since February 2020, whereas the increasing expected retired share explains the rest (see Figure 3)….”

“…Thus, less than half of the increase in the retired share to date would likely have occurred even in the absence of the pandemic, suggesting that more than half of the current LFPR shortfall is a direct result of the pandemic on retirement….First, as discussed above, more than half of the increase in the retired share relative to February 2020 is due to an increase that would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Second, about two-thirds of the total increase in the excess retired share is attributable to those who were age 65 and older at the start of the pandemic, with a particularly sharp increase in excess retirements among those age 70 and older. The remaining one-third of the increase in the excess retired share is attributable to those age 55 to 64 when the pandemic began. Third, there is also substantial heterogeneity across education, race, and ethnic groups, with retired shares for those age 65 and older increasing more than expected for Whites relative to Blacks and Hispanics, and for those with a college education relative to those without….…Because the retired share has remained significantly elevated since increasing substantially at the start of the pandemic and has shown little sign of converging towards its ex-pandemic counterfactual, it may take some years for retirement behavior to normalize relative to pre-pandemic norms and for the retired share of the population to converge toward what it would be in the absence of pandemic-related influences. We view it as unlikely, however, that the retired share will fall substantially towards its pre-pandemic trend and that those who retired early will return to the labor force in large numbers, since most of the excess retirements are concentrated among people who are 65 and older who (given their age) would likely be retiring in greater numbers anyway over the next few years. That assessment is supported by the stabilization of the unretirement rate at its pre-pandemic level, well below the level it would need to reach for the retired share to fall substantially…”

Joshua Montes, Christopher Smith, and Juliana Dajon, ” “The Great Retirement Boom”: The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation,” Federal Reserve Board, November 2022, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-great-retirement-boom.htm