Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Six of the world's fifteen most populous countries in 2100 — including three of the top five — are projected to be places with under $7,000 in per capita GDP today, led by Pakistan, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with Ethiopia and Tanzania close behind. Over 2bn people are projected to live in those five countries.

Noah Smith Noahpinion
Date Posted:

In 75 years, 20% of the world’s population is projected to live in Pakistan, Nigeria, the DRC, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Noah Smith notes, “More and more of humanity is going to live in a few big countries that can’t manage themselves.”

Will the world's most populous countries be among its poorest?

Core argument: By 2100, six of the world's fifteen most populous countries — and three of the top five — are projected to be places with under $7,000 in per capita GDP (PPP) as of 2025.

By 2100, six out of the fifteen most populous countries in the world — and three of the top five — will be places that as of 2025 have under $7,000 in per capita GDP (PPP). The biggest ones will be Pakistan, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with Ethiopia and Tanzania not far behind. Altogether, over 2 billion people — a fifth or more of humanity’s peak population — is projected to live in those five countries. And that percentage will only grow after that, at least unless some sort of radical unexpected change happens to demographic patterns. Fertility is falling everywhere, but in the Big 5 poor countries, it’s not falling much faster than in the world as a whole.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. By 2100, six of the world's fifteen most populous countries — and three of the top five — are projected to be places with under $7,000 in per capita GDP (PPP) as of 2025.
  2. Pakistan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, and Tanzania are projected to hold over 2 billion people, a fifth or more of humanity's peak population, with that share rising thereafter absent radical demographic change.
  3. Fertility is falling everywhere, but in those five poor countries it is not falling much faster than in the world as a whole.

Related Articles:

  • 21st-Century Africa Governance and Growth — Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP per capita has fallen relative to the world average over three decades, from 30% to 22%, reflecting the region's inability to sustain growth. Had it grown at the global pace since 1990, income per capita would be over 40% higher; at emerging East Asia's pace, nearly 3x higher.
  • Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory — Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is growing nearly 3% a year, versus close to zero in much of the world, and is projected to exceed China's within about a decade and reach a quarter of the global total. With modest productivity growth near 2%, the region is likely among the world's fastest-growing.
  • Exploring the Implications of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Explosion — Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to hold a quarter of the world's working-age population within a few decades and to surpass China's working-age population in roughly a decade. Even with modest productivity growth near 2%, the region's growth is estimated at 4.5–5.5%, raising its share of global output from about 3% while remaining small.
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