At the start of 2024, the lifting of fear has led to higher prices, a more upbeat forecast of earnings and an expected return of 8.48%, and an equity risk premium of 4.60%. I do compute this expected return and the equity risk premium at the start of each month, and the last 24 months have been a roller coaster ride. To the question of whether 8.48% is a reasonable expectation for an annual return for US stocks, and 4.60% a sufficient equity risk premium, I looked at the historical estimates for these numbers going back to 1960.
- Date Posted:
- January 17, 2024
The number of people in the world’s second-largest economy fell for a second year by over 2 million to 1.41 billion in 2023, according to data released by the National Statistics Bureau on Wednesday. The drop more than doubled that in 2022, when the Chinese population shrank for the first time since 1961, the final year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong. A total of 9.02 million babies were born in 2023, the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Deaths rose to 11.1 million, almost 700,000 more than the previous year and the highest since 1960. The bureau doesn’t break down deaths by cause, but Covid-related fatalities likely contributed to the rise after authorities abruptly ended strict pandemic curbs in December 2022 and led to an explosion of infections.