Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa's GDP per capita has fallen relative to the world average over three decades, from 30% to 22%, reflecting the region's inability to sustain growth. Had it grown at the global pace since 1990, income per capita would be over 40% higher; at emerging East Asia's pace, nearly 3x higher.

Cesar Calderon and Ayan Qu The World Bank
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

In 1990, Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP per capita was 30% of the world average. Btw 2014 and 2022, GDP per capita declined to 22% of the world’s mean. 50% of the world’s population growth over the next 15 years will occur in Africa.

Has Sub-Saharan Africa fallen further behind global living standards?

Core argument: Sub-Saharan Africa's real GDP per capita fell from 30% of the world average in 1990 to 25% by 2000, fluctuated near 25% through 2014, then declined to 22% by 2022.

When compared with the average living standards of the rest of the world, GDP per capita in Sub-Saharan Africa has declined over the past three decades. During the period 1990–2022, three distinct periods can be identified in the evolution of Sub-Saharan Africa’s real GDP per capita: a declining trend during 1990–2000 (from 30% to 25% of the world average), stagnant GDP per capita relative to the world during 2000-14 (fluctuating around 25%), and a declining trend from 2014 to 2022 (from 25% to 22% of the world average). The region’s lack of convergence in living standards with the rest of the world largely results from its inability to sustain growth over time. If Sub-Saharan Africa had grown (in per capita terms) at the same pace as the global economy since 1990, its level of income per capita in 2022 would have been more than 40% higher than its actual level. If it had grown at the same pace as emerging East Asia, the region’s income per capita would have been nearly three times its 2022 level. Currently home to 14% of the world’s working-age population, by 2100, Africa is projected to have 39%, representing more than a third of the workforce of the entire world.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Sub-Saharan Africa's real GDP per capita fell from 30% of the world average in 1990 to 25% by 2000, fluctuated near 25% through 2014, then declined to 22% by 2022.
  2. Had Sub-Saharan Africa matched global per capita growth since 1990, its 2022 income per capita would have been more than 40% higher, and matching emerging East Asia would have made it nearly three times its actual level.
  3. Africa holds 14% of the world's working-age population and is projected to hold 39% by 2100, more than a third of the entire global workforce.

Related Articles:

  • Exploring the Implications of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Demographic Explosion — Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to hold a quarter of the world's working-age population within a few decades and to surpass China's working-age population in roughly a decade. Even with modest productivity growth near 2%, the region's growth is estimated at 4.5–5.5%, raising its share of global output from about 3% while remaining small.
  • Changing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Growth Trajectory — Sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population is growing nearly 3% a year, versus close to zero in much of the world, and is projected to exceed China's within about a decade and reach a quarter of the global total. With modest productivity growth near 2%, the region is likely among the world's fastest-growing.
  • Could T-Shirts Be The Way to Industrialise an African Nation? — Benin, Africa's largest cotton producer, exports nearly all of its roughly 300,000 tonnes of lint cotton raw, mostly to Bangladesh, and industry experts estimate it forgoes more than 90% of the value by not processing it domestically. The World Bank reports manufacturing's share of GDP in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding high-income countries, fell from 18% to 11%.
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