Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Falling fertility in rich countries is driven by younger women having fewer children, with more than half the drop in the US total fertility rate explained by women under 19 now having almost no children, while women aged 30 and above are having more. College-educated American women at 24 still want about 2.2 children, roughly as many as earlier generations.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:

In 1960 the mean US woman had 3.6 children; in 2023, this had fallen to 1.6, driven by declining birth rates among women under 30, while birth rates among women 30 and above have risen.

Are falling birth rates in rich countries driven by younger women?

Core argument: American women's average number of children fell from 3.6 in 1960 to 1.6 in 2023, with the decline concentrated among younger women, while women aged 30 and above are having more children.

Birth rates have collapsed because young women are not having as many children. In 1960 American women had on average 3.6 children. In 2023 they had 1.6. Remarkably, women aged 30 and above are having more children. It is only younger women who are having fewer. The decline among younger women is itself concentrated among teenagers. More than half the drop in America’s total fertility rate is explained by women under the age of 19 now having next to no children. Meanwhile, there is little evidence that middle-class women wish they had many more children, which would at least suggest they might be open to official persuasion. Today, at the age of 24, college-educated American women want on average 2.2 children roughly as many as previous generations. They will now have these children a little later than before, with the first arriving at the age of 30, compared with 28 in 2000. Although trends suggest that they will fall short of their ideal family size, the gap may be the same as for women in previous generations, who missed the target by an average of 0.25 children.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. American women's average number of children fell from 3.6 in 1960 to 1.6 in 2023, with the decline concentrated among younger women, while women aged 30 and above are having more children.
  2. More than half the drop in America's total fertility rate is explained by women under 19 now having next to no children.
  3. College-educated American women at age 24 want an average of 2.2 children, roughly as many as previous generations, though their first child now arrives at 30, compared with 28 in 2000.

Related Articles:

  • US Births Are Down Again, After the COVID Baby Bust and Rebound — US births declined steadily for years before the pandemic, with almost 600,000 fewer annual births in 2019 than in 2007, a 13% drop. The pandemic-related baby bust and subsequent rebound were short-term deviations from that longer trend, and 2022 birth counts remained below 2019 levels.
  • Why Family-Friendly Policies Don’t Boost Birth Rates — Developed countries roughly tripled real per capita spending on child benefits, subsidised childcare, and parental leave between 1980 and 2019 while birth rates fell from 1.85 to 1.53 per woman. Finland's fertility rate has fallen by a third since 2010, and Korea's "baby bonus" mainly paid women already planning children.
  • The Wealthy Are Starting to Have More Babies Than the Poor Again — In developed countries, men's income and education are now generally positively associated with fatherhood, with 70.1% of US men holding graduate or professional degrees having children versus 48.8% of those without a high school diploma. Among advanced economies, those where men take on more housework and child care have higher fertility rates.
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