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Hsieh-Moretti on Housing Regulation: A Gracious Admission of Error

Bryan Caplan The Library Of Economic And Liberty

Date Posted:: April 22, 2021
Is Database:: Database

Hsieh-Moretti’s estimate of GDP gains from urbanization is significantly larger than previously thought, with corrected estimates suggesting GDP could be 36% higher over 45 years.

The potential gains to GDP from urbanization are significantly larger than previously estimated by Hsieh and Moretti. An error in their paper understated the impact of housing constraints on spatial misallocation, leading to a miscalculation of GDP growth. The corrected estimate suggests that GDP could be 36% higher over 45 years, rather than the initially reported 8.9%. This substantial revision highlights the critical role of accurate data interpretation in economic modeling and underscores the importance of addressing housing regulations to unlock urbanization's full economic potential. The oversight was attributed to a focus on advanced mathematics, which led to elementary errors being overlooked, emphasizing the need for thorough review processes in economic research.

Just an FYI, Bryan Caplan found an error in Moretti’Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocationwhich was cited in chapter, the effect of pricing people out of cities was understated in paper, "...How then can these enormous changes in the annual growth rate, compounded over 45 years, lead to relatively modest changes in total GDP? Answer: They can’t!The correct estimate to derive from Table 4 is that GDP will be 1.0149^45/1.00795^45=+36% higher, not +8.9%...."

This doesn’t impact the use of the paper in chapter, will attached it the entry as a note as an FYI, “…authors and referees alike focused so intently on the advanced mathematics that they glossed over some elementary yet crucial errors. And this is roughly what Hsieh told me:The referees requested some changes to the text (not the tables, which look fine), but these were inconsistently implemented….”

Bryan Caplan, "Hsieh-Moretti on Housing Regulation: A Gracious Admission of Error,"The Library Of Economic And Liberty, April 4, 2021, https://www.econlib.org/a-correction-on-housing-regulation/

First-Time Home Buyers Are Older Than Ever

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: March 24, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The median age of American first-time home buyers was 35 years old in 2025, up from 32 in 2015.

At what age do people buy their first home? My analysis of data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) shows that, on average, they’re 35—three years older than a decade ago, and eight years older than in the 1970s. The PSID is a remarkable dataset. Like wildlife researchers tagging a pod of whales, the researchers at the University of Michigan have tracked 85,000 individuals from 5,000 families they began studying in 1968. This ‘longitudinal’ data allows us to observe the kids in these families as they leave home, form their own households, rent their first apartments, and eventually become first time buyers (FTBs) of homes. And because specific individuals are tracked over time, we can pinpoint the exact moment someone transitions from renting to owning for the first time, and how old they were when it happened. No other U.S. dataset can do this, and none go as far back as the 1960s.

How the Housing Market Split in Two

Jess Remington Agglomerations

Date Posted:: March 16, 2026
Is Database:: Database
Is Important:: Important

As of 2024, American homeowners who bought a house within the last year were spending 26% of their income on housing, relative to 20% for existing homeowners – the largest gap in almost 40 years.

Historically, monthly housing costs for new and existing homeowners have tended to move in tandem. From 1990 through the aftermath of the Great Recession, both groups saw costs rise during booms and fall during downturns, with the gap between them remaining relatively stable at two to four percentage points. That pattern briefly reversed during the Great Recession, when new buyers were able to purchase homes at depressed prices and consequently spent slightly less of their income on housing than existing owners. By 2017, the typical two-point gap had returned. The current divergence began in earnest in 2022. By 2024, new homeowners were spending 26% of their income on housing, compared to 20% for existing homeowners — a six-percentage-point gap, the largest in nearly 40 years. Although new homeowners spent a slightly larger share of their income on housing at the peak of the housing bubble in 2007 (28%), the gap with existing homeowners was smaller (four percentage points).

Living With Mom And Dad At 30

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: February 25, 2026
Is Database:: Database

The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.

Among married 30-year-olds, the homeownership rate has barely budged—63% in 1990, 60% today. Among single 30-year-olds living alone, the homeownership rate actually rose, from 25% to 29%. The typical 30-year-old living at home is male (61%), has never been married (89%), and doesn’t have a college degree (73%). Only 27% have a bachelor’s, compared to 42% of all 30-year-olds. In the early 1990s the profile of those living at home at 30 looked nearly identical: 64% male, 77% never married, and less educated than average. [However], in the ’90s, a greater proportion of young, less educated men would have gotten married and moved out. Among men without a college degree—the group most likely to be living with their parents—the marriage rate has plunged from 58% to 36%.

Productivity Stagnation in the Construction Industry: An International Perspective

Elsie Peng Goldman Sachs

Date Posted:: February 3, 2026
Is Database:: Database

Post-1965, measured labor productivity in US construction averaged ~ -0.6% per year, compared to +1.6% economy-wide. GS attributes ~40% of the gap to tighter land-use rules, ~20% to weak innovation, and ~20% to mismeasurement of quality improvements.

Our analysis shows that, within the US, the tightening of land use regulations has accounted for 40% of the gap in productivity growth between construction and the rest of the economy since 1965, and the lack of innovation and quality mismeasurement have each accounted for 20%. Looking across countries, we find that more severe tightening of land use regulations and greater quality mismeasurement account for most of the underperformance of the US construction industry since 1991, relative to other major G10 countries.

What Explains Low Millennial Home Ownership?

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: January 28, 2026
Is Database:: Database

60% of millennials who are married and living apart from their parents at age 30 own a home, compared to 68% of comparable baby boomers. At 30, 42% of millennials are married, versus 64% of boomers.

The diagram traces the path from birth to living arrangement at age 30 for Millennials and Boomers. It reveals two junctures where the generations diverged. First, household formation: 31% of Millennials at age 30 still live with parents or roommates, compared to just 19% of Boomers at the same age—a 12-percentage-point gap that immediately disqualifies Millennials from the ownership track. Second, marriage: among those who do form households, only 61% of Millennials are married by age 30, versus 77% of Boomers. These two factors—not leaving the nest and not marrying, at least by age 30—account for the bulk of the 18-point ownership gap (43% for Boomers vs. 25% for Millennials). Part of this comes down to shifting preferences and values, but stretched affordability is also an important driver. Strikingly, conditional on being a married household head, ownership rates are much closer: 68% of married Boomer heads owned at 30, compared to 60% of Millennials—an 8-point gap, far smaller than the headline 18-point difference.

Why Do People Leave New York City?

Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

Date Posted:: December 12, 2025
Is Database:: Database

82% of NYC emigrants are not moving to Texas or Florida; they are moving to Long Island and Westchester. Aziz Sunderji suggests that lowering housing costs could help the city retain these workers.

The vast majority of NYC emigrants aren’t fleeing to Texas or Florida—they’re moving to Long Island and Westchester, citing housing as their primary motivation. These are not people who have given up on the New York metro area; they’re people who want more space, want to own rather than rent, or simply want a better home than they can afford in the five boroughs. Interstate movers are a different story. They tend to be younger, more educated, and childless—and they leave primarily for jobs. This cohort is harder to retain through housing policy alone; their departures reflect the pull of opportunity elsewhere rather than the push of inadequate housing. The policy implication is straightforward: New York City cannot compete with booming job markets in other cities or Miami’s climate. The four out of five emigrants from New York City who stay local are, in effect, still rooting for New York—they just need a place to live.

Hsieh-Moretti’s estimate of GDP gains from urbanization is significantly larger than previously thought, with corrected estimates suggesting GDP could be 36% higher over 45 years.

The median age of American first-time home buyers was 35 years old in 2025, up from 32 in 2015.

Related Articles:

As of 2024, American homeowners who bought a house within the last year were spending 26% of their income on housing, relative to 20% for existing homeowners – the largest gap in almost 40 years.

Related Articles:

The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.

Related Articles:

Post-1965, measured labor productivity in US construction averaged ~ -0.6% per year, compared to +1.6% economy-wide. GS attributes ~40% of the gap to tighter land-use rules, ~20% to weak innovation, and ~20% to mismeasurement of quality improvements.

Related Articles:

60% of millennials who are married and living apart from their parents at age 30 own a home, compared to 68% of comparable baby boomers. At 30, 42% of millennials are married, versus 64% of boomers.

Related Articles:

82% of NYC emigrants are not moving to Texas or Florida; they are moving to Long Island and Westchester. Aziz Sunderji suggests that lowering housing costs could help the city retain these workers.

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