Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. The authors estimate the natural inflation-adjusted rate on 10-year US Treasuries fell from about 5% in the early 1980s to roughly 1.6% in 2010-2015 and is now rising, reaching almost 2.6%. That implies a 10-year Treasury yield consistent with stable inflation of about 4.7%.

Jamie Rush, Martin Ademmer, and Tom Orlik Bloomberg
Date Posted:

Bloomberg estimates that the real natural rate on 10-year Treasuries rose to ~2.6% in Q2 2026, ~100bp above its 2010–15 trough. That implies a “10-year Treasury yield consistent with stable inflation of around 4.7%,” close to the current market yield of ~5%.

Is the natural rate on long-term Treasuries rising again?

Core argument: The authors estimate the real natural rate on 10-year Treasuries at almost 2.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from a trough of about 1.6% between 2010 and 2015.

For more than three decades, from the early 1980s to the mid-2010s, the natural rate on 10-year Treasuries was falling. Our estimates show it dropped from an inflation-adjusted peak of around 5% in the early 1980s to a trough of about 1.6% between 2010 and 2015. Now it is rising. Our latest calculations, inspired by a framework developed by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, put the real natural rate at almost 2.6% in the second quarter of 2026. In nominal terms, that translates to a 10-year Treasury yield consistent with stable inflation of around 4.7%.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The authors estimate the real natural rate on 10-year Treasuries at almost 2.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from a trough of about 1.6% between 2010 and 2015.
  2. The authors’ estimates show the inflation-adjusted natural rate on 10-year Treasuries fell from a peak near 5% in the early 1980s to its mid-2010s trough, a decline of more than three decades that has now reversed.
  3. A real natural rate of about 2.6% translates into a nominal 10-year Treasury yield consistent with stable inflation of around 4.7%, according to the authors’ calculations, which draw on a framework developed by Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists.

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  • How Might Fiscal Policy Respond to the Rise of Artificial Intelligence? — The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a permanent 0.5 percentage point increase in annual productivity growth would lower publicly held federal debt after 30 years by 39% of GDP, offsetting roughly half the projected rise from 101% of GDP to 175%. Higher revenue and slower spending growth outweigh higher interest costs.
  • The Coming Great Repression? — Across countries and over time, higher public debt burdens are associated with lower relative returns on government bonds, the opposite of standard risk-premium predictions. The authors estimate financial repression—making banks captive bond buyers and loading them with low-return reserves—contributed 90.7 percentage points of GDP to Britain's postwar debt reduction, versus 20.3 from surprise inflation.
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