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Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs

AI Summary. A survey of recently laid-off tech workers found 40% secured new positions within 30 days and 79% within three months, slightly below the 83% three-month re-employment rate for all laid-off workers. The share of tech workers searching longer than six months fell to 5% from 26%, amid 10.3m job openings exceeding the number of unemployed Americans.

Gwynn Guilford Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
January 5, 2023
Is Database:
Database

@GwynnGuilford 40% of recently laid-off tech workers accepted a new position within 30 days, according to a December 2022 survey, highlighting the resilience of tech employment despite economic challenges.

How quickly do laid-off tech workers find new jobs?

Core argument: A December 2022 survey found 40% of recently laid-off tech workers secured new positions within 30 days, and 79% within three months, slightly below the 83% re-employment rate for all laid-off workers.

In December 2022, a survey revealed that 40% of recently laid-off tech workers secured new positions within 30 days, highlighting the resilience of tech employment despite economic challenges. The survey also showed that 79% of these workers found jobs within three months, slightly below the 83% re-employment rate for all laid-off workers. This rapid reemployment is driven by a tight labor market with 10.3m job openings, exceeding the number of unemployed Americans. Despite layoffs and hiring freezes in tech, demand for skilled tech workers remains high, with many transitioning to roles in other industries such as retail and healthcare. The percentage of tech workers spending over six months job hunting dropped to 5% from 26% earlier, indicating improved job prospects. This trend underscores the ongoing demand for tech skills across various sectors, even as the broader economy faces headwinds from interest rate hikes and inflation.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. A December 2022 survey found 40% of recently laid-off tech workers secured new positions within 30 days, and 79% within three months, slightly below the 83% re-employment rate for all laid-off workers.
  2. The share of laid-off tech workers spending over six months job hunting fell to 5% from 26%, with many moving into roles in other industries such as retail and healthcare.
  3. Reemployment of tech workers came amid a tight labor market with 10.3m job openings exceeding the number of unemployed Americans, even as interest rate hikes and inflation weighed on the broader economy.

According to recent surveys, recently laid-off tech workers are quickly finding new employment with 40% accepting a new position within 30 days.

“…About 79% of workers recently hired after a tech-company layoff or termination landed their new job within three months of starting their search, according to a ZipRecruiter survey of new hires. That was just below the 83% share of all laid-off workers who were re-employed in the same time frame. Nearly four in ten previously laid-off tech workers found jobs less than a month after they began searching, ZipRecruiter found in the survey…”

Sarah Chaney Cambon and Gwynn Guilford, "Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs,"Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/laid-off-tech-workers-quickly-find-new-jobs-11672097730

Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs

Most laid off tech workers are finding jobs shortly after beginning their search, a new survey shows, as employers continue to scoop up workers in a tight labor market.

About 79% of workers recently hired after a tech-company layoff or termination landed their new job within three months of starting their search, according to a ZipRecruiter survey of new hires. That was just below the 83% share of all laid-off workers who were re-employed in the same time frame.

Nearly four in 10 previously laid off tech workers found jobs less than a month after they began searching, ZipRecruiter found in the survey.

“Despite the widespread layoffs, hiring freezes, and cost-cutting taking place in tech, many tech workers are finding reemployment remarkably quickly,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “They’re still the most sought-after workers with the most in-demand skills.”

Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs: Extended Excerpt Image 1


Job openings across the economy—at 10.3 million—are down from record highs but far exceed the number of unemployed Americans, providing opportunities for workers who lose their jobs and those who choose to seek another.

Workers previously employed in other industries, including entertainment and leisure, transportation and delivery, and manufacturing, also found new jobs quickly, the ZipRecruiter data showed.

The job market for tech workers is slowing as the broader economy falters under the pressure of Federal Reserve interest rate increases and high inflation. Layoffs and hiring freezes are occurring at startups and large tech companies such as Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. that hired aggressively early on in the pandemic. The cuts are hitting workers in tech jobs—such as software engineers—and other corporate roles including recruiters.

Still, tech firms making cuts are outnumbered by those that are hiring.

A smaller share of tech workers is spending long periods searching for work after a layoff. About 5% of laid off tech workers who found jobs from April to October had spent more than six months hunting for work, down from 26% of those hired between August 2021 and February 2022, ZipRecruiter said.

Wen Huber, age 23, was laid off from a videographer job at a real estate tech startup in late July. Mr. Huber, who lives near Seattle, thought it would take awhile to land a new position, given he didn’t have a four-year-college degree and many other job seekers were flooding the tech job market.

“When I was applying, to be honest, I didn’t feel very confident because there was such an influx of competition with a lot of people also being laid off,” he said.

Mr. Huber had built up a savings buffer, allowing him to be more selective in his job hunt as he sought to pivot into social media. He documented his unemployment experience in a series of videos on LinkedIn. The videos helped him land an interview—and ultimately an offer—for a social media manager job at a software startup, Mr. Huber said. He started in September.

“I was surprised at how quickly I was able to secure an offer for a job,” he said.

Short job searches in tech have become slightly less common as the labor market slows from earlier in the year. Among people who recently lost a job and worked in tech previously, 37% found a new position within one month of starting to look, according to ZipRecruiter. That compared with 50% in February’s survey.

“We’ve definitely seen a slowdown in hiring, but the reason why is that the job creation level was beyond record highs because of the slingshot effect of the pandemic,” said Ryan Sutton, district president at Robert Half, a global recruitment firm. “From August 2020 to May 2022, it wasn’t red-hot. It was lava-hot.”

Usually when mass layoffs hit, there is an influx of tech candidates contacting his company to help with their job search, Mr. Sutton said.

“We have not seen it yet—we haven’t seen more candidates coming to market,” he said. “Our recruiters are having to hunt and hustle just as much as they had to in the last couple of years.”

Client firms in tech also haven’t mentioned any plans to cut jobs, Mr. Sutton said.

About 74% of workers recently hired after losing or leaving a job at a tech company remained in the industry, according to ZipRecruiter. Others who previously worked at tech companies switched to firms in industries such as retail, financial services and healthcare in the six months ending in mid-October.

Pinnacol Assurance, a 650-person workers’ compensation insurer, saw a 46% increase in job candidates from big tech companies including Meta, Microsoft and Twitter between September and mid-December, said Tim Johnson, the company’s chief human resources officer.

The influx of applicants has helped Pinnacol fill tech-related roles such as data scientist, machine-learning engineer and cloud architect in recent months. In mid-December, Pinnacol’s recruiting team made an offer to a job candidate from Google, Mr. Johnson said.

Ayanna Chapman, 42, started a systems-engineering job job at Pinnacol overseeing its computer systems in mid-November after she was laid off from another systems-engineer position this spring.

A generous severance package allowed her to take several months to freshen skills and study for certifications including in the Python programming language. When the Atlanta-area resident began looking for work in the second week of October, recruiters quickly reached out with interview opportunities, she said.

Ms. Chapman was keen on finding a job with stability and thought Pinnacol would fit. She received an offer from the Denver-based company about two weeks after beginning the interview process, much faster than previous experiences, she said.

“I literally cried tears of joy like, ‘Oh, my God, I got the job. I can’t believe it,’” Ms. Chapman said.

Employers broadly are responding to job candidates fast, likely for fear of losing them in a competitive market with a historically low jobless rate of 3.7%. Nine in 10 ZipRecruiter survey respondents said they heard back from a recruiter or hiring manager within a week of applying for a job.

ZipRecruiter’s most recent survey was drawn from 2,550 U.S. residents who had started a new job within the six months ending in mid-October. The data align with other job-market figures that signal the hot labor market is cooling.

Of the ZipRecruiter survey respondents who said they previously worked in tech, most of them likely worked for tech companies regardless of their occupation, Ms. Pollak said. In other words, a recruiter at Amazon would likely be classified as a tech-industry worker in the survey. But a data scientist at Home Depot would be a retail-industry worker.

Laid Off Tech Workers Quickly Find New Jobs: Extended Excerpt Image 2


Separate labor-market figures suggest employers across industries are still seeking to hire tech workers, though less so than earlier in the pandemic. Postings on job-site Indeed for tech occupations are still well above prepandemic levels, but have fallen steeply over the past year.

Software developer job ads on Indeed are down 34% from a year earlier, and ads for mathematics roles—which include data scientists—are 28% lower. Overall postings are down 7.7% from a year ago.

“With tech workers, it’s a much bigger pullback,” said Nick Bunker, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. “It’s still above prepandemic levels, but if the current trend keeps up, I don’t imagine that talking point will be true anymore at some point next year.”

The uncertain economic outlook is likely weighing on employers’ appetite for white-collar workers, since they tend to base hiring plans for higher-paid workers on the longer-term business outlook, said Mr. Bunker. By contrast, firms usually gear hiring for waiters, deliverers and other lower-paid jobs according to immediate business needs, he said.

Many companies with among the highest shares of new tech job postings on Indeed in late November were in industries such as consulting, financial services and aerospace.

“For tech jobs, it is still a relatively healthy economic climate and relatively healthy labor market,” said Scott Dobroski, Indeed career expert. “A lot of bright spots for tech workers currently lie outside of traditional tech companies.”

U.S. aerospace companies cut more than 100,000 workers during the pandemic, but have been hiring back at a fast clip and struggling for a year with staffing shortages that have crimped supply chains.

Raytheon Technologies Corp. CEO Greg Hayes said during the summer he was optimistic that layoffs among tech companies would start to ease his own hiring challenges. There are signs that is happening.

“We are starting to see an uptick in interest from the tech layoffs,” said Mike Dippold, chief financial officer of Leonardo DRS Inc., which is based Arlington, Va.

Mr. Dippold said the defense-sensor specialist, like many peers, still had more open positions than it would like, but the staffing situation was starting to improve.

  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
  • Workforce
    • Unemployment/Participation
Previous articleJanuary 5, 2023Capital Allocation: Results, Analysis and AssessmentCapital expenditures net of depreciation for the Russell 3000 peaked at 6.9% of sales in 1988, but has since declined to 1.8% on average in the past decade, highlighting a shift in capital allocation strategies.Next articleJanuary 6, 2023US Hiring Solid While Wages Cool, Giving Fed Room to Slow HikesNonfarm payrolls increased by 223,000 in December and the unemployment rate declined to 3.5%, matching a five-decade low. @Bloomberg
Showing 218 database articles primarily about Business Cycle

3% vs. 60%

AI Summary. The direct lending market is roughly $2tn, or about 3% of total US household and business debt outstanding, compared with mortgages accounting for about 60% of total household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:
April 8, 2026
Is Database:
Database

Torsten Sløk notes the direct lending market is ~$2T or 3% of household and non-financial debt outstanding. To provide context, he shows that in 2006, on the eve of the crisis, mortgages accounted for ~60% of such debt.

Is direct lending too small to threaten the financial system?

Core argument: The direct lending market totals roughly $2 trillion, about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses.

The direct lending market is roughly $2 trillion, or about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses. By comparison, mortgages accounted for about 60% of total household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The direct lending market totals roughly $2 trillion, about 3% of total debt outstanding for US households and businesses.
  2. Mortgages accounted for about 60% of total US household and corporate debt at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006, compared with direct lending's roughly 3% share.

Related Articles:

  • JPMorgan Marking Down Loan Portfolios Of Private Credit Groups — JPMorgan has marked down the value of certain loans in private credit funds' portfolios that serve as collateral for the funds' borrowing from the bank, limiting how much it will lend against them. Unlike most banks, which require triggers such as missed interest payments, JPMorgan reserves the right to revalue those assets at any time.
  • Data Update 7 for 2026: Debt and Taxes — The author argues that companies are collectively over-investing in artificial intelligence and that markets will correct when that belief dissipates. Because debt, particularly private credit, now finances much of this investment, the author contends a correction would spread beyond equity holders and produce a banking-style crisis driven by non-bank lenders.
  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
    • Financial Markets

Top 10% of Earners Drive a Growing Share of US Consumer Spending

AI Summary. An analysis of Federal Reserve data found the top 10% of US earners accounted for 49.2% of total consumer spending, up from 48.5% the prior quarter and the highest share in data going back to 1989. Spending by the bottom 80%, those making under roughly $175,000, has merely kept pace with inflation.

Jonnelle Marte Bloomberg
Date Posted:
September 17, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Mark Zandi finds Americans in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of consumer spending in Q2, the highest level since 1989.

Are top earners accounting for a record share of consumer spending?

Core argument: The top 10% of US earners accounted for 49.2% of total consumer spending in the second quarter, up from 48.5% in the first quarter and the highest share in data going back to 1989, according to Mark Zandi's analysis of Federal Reserve data.

Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending in the second quarter, up from 48.5% in the first quarter, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics. In contrast, the bottom 80% of the income distribution, or consumers making less than roughly $175,000 a year, have seen their spending merely keep pace with inflation since the pandemic.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. The top 10% of US earners accounted for 49.2% of total consumer spending in the second quarter, up from 48.5% in the first quarter and the highest share in data going back to 1989, according to Mark Zandi's analysis of Federal Reserve data.
  2. Consumers in the bottom 80% of the income distribution, making less than roughly $175,000 a year, have seen their spending merely keep pace with inflation since the pandemic, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

Related Articles:

  • The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People — Moody's Analytics estimates the top 10% of earners account for 49.7% of all U.S. consumer spending, a record in data going back to 1989, up from about 36% three decades ago, with their spending alone equal to almost one-third of gross domestic product.
  • To Understand America Today, Study the Zero-Sum Mindset — Younger generations in the United States and other rich countries hold more zero-sum views than older ones, a pattern researchers link to growing up amid slower economic growth and lower mobility. People who have surpassed their parents, or whose families rose over generations, are less likely to think in zero-sum terms.
  • Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of U.S. Political Divides — Zero-sum thinking — viewing gains for one group as losses for another — is associated with greater support for liberal economic policies, stronger alignment with the Democratic Party, and weaker alignment with the Republican Party. The authors also find it linked to believing the QAnon conspiracy theory holds some truth and to sympathy for the attack on the U.S. Capitol.
  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
  • Workforce
    • Inequality

Litigation Nation, Engineering Empire

AI Summary. Regrouping US college majors to match Chinese disciplines yields a 2:1 ratio of science and engineering to humanities and social sciences, the same ratio as in China. The author argues America's building slowdown reflects structural economic shifts—urbanization reached 70% by 1960 and 85% by 2020, shifting needs toward maintenance—rather than a lawyerly culture.

Jonathon Sine Cogitations
Date Posted:
September 2, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

Jonathon Sine argues China “is moving beyond its breakneck industrial prime, facing similar dilemmas to those America confronted in the 1960s and 70s.” The ratio of science/engineering to humanities undergraduate majors is 2:1 in both the PRC and US.

Does America's building slowdown reflect structural shifts rather than lawyerly culture?

Core argument: Regrouping US college majors according to Chinese disciplines yields a 2:1 ratio of science/engineering to humanities/social sciences, the same ratio as in China when management is grouped with science/engineering in both.

Dan Wang’s “big idea” [is] “China is an engineering state, building big at breakneck speed, in contrast to the United States’ lawyerly society, blocking everything it can, good and bad.” I re-group US college majors according to Chinese disciplines to allow for rough comparison. Surprisingly, the ratio of science/engineering to humanities/social sciences is 2:1, the same as in China (if one groups management with science/engineering, as I also do for China). As with China today, America’s breakneck building phase was decidedly winding down by the 1960s. Urbanization went from 40% in 1900 to 70% by 1960, and grew much more incrementally over the next 60 years to 85% by 2020. The country simply did not need to continue building dams, expressways, and energy production facilities at breakneck pace. It became much more a matter of maintaining and upgrading (which has not gone well, at least according to the American Society of Civil Engineers’ report card). The American [building/investment slowdown that started after the 1970s] may be more about structural economic shifts than lawyers.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Regrouping US college majors according to Chinese disciplines yields a 2:1 ratio of science/engineering to humanities/social sciences, the same ratio as in China when management is grouped with science/engineering in both.
  2. US urbanization rose from 40% in 1900 to 70% by 1960, then grew more incrementally to 85% by 2020, with America's breakneck building phase winding down by the 1960s.
  3. The US building and investment slowdown that began after the 1970s may owe more to structural economic shifts than to lawyers, qualifying Dan Wang's contrast between China's engineering state and America's lawyerly society.

Related Articles:

  • Industrial Colossus: China vs 1950s America — China's growth in its share of global manufacturing has slowed from roughly 1.5 percentage points per year in the early 2010s to just over 0.5 percentage points annually, about one-third the earlier pace. The author argues China's share of global manufacturing is likely near its peak.
  • The Real China Model — China generates more electricity annually than the United States and European Union combined, having added capacity equivalent to the United Kingdom's total supply each year. Electricity makes up nearly 30% of China's energy use, versus 22% in the US and 21% globally, and its share is growing about 6% a year.
  • America’s Housing Affordability Crisis and the Decline of Housing Supply — Housing production intensity has fallen substantially, especially in fast-growing Sunbelt markets once known for building, converging toward the low rates long seen on the coasts and in declining industrial centers. The authors argue incumbent-controlled regulation explains the weakening link between high prices, high demand areas, and new construction.
  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
    • Growth

How America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing The Rest Of The Economy

AI Summary. About a sixth of America's 2% real GDP growth over the past year came from investment in computer and communications equipment and data centres, and one estimate puts the artificial intelligence boom's total contribution to growth at 40%. Average electricity bills rose 7%, attributed in part to data-centre demand, while housebuilding and non-AI business investment slumped and real consumption flatlined.

Economist Staff The Economist
Date Posted:
August 19, 2025
Is Database:
Database
Is Important:
Important

As AI-related investment has risen since 2023, residential and nonresidential investment have declined or flatlined. This may suggest that a relatively rate-insensitive AI buildout is crowding out more interest-sensitive forms of investment.

Is the AI investment boom crowding out the rest of the economy?

Core argument: Roughly a sixth of the 2% rise in American real GDP over the past year came from investment in computer and communications equipment, including chips, and data centres; one estimate puts the AI boom's contribution at 40% once grid upgrades and software intellectual property are included.

Something like a sixth of the 2% rise in American real GDP over the past year has come from investments in computer and communications equipment, including chips, and data centres. Add in the grid upgrades to power AI models, plus the intellectual-property value of the software itself, and one estimate puts the boom’s contribution to real GDP growth at 40%. The trouble is that the very sector powering so much of America’s economic growth is squeezing the rest of its output. Housebuilders, for instance, cannot afford to be blithe about higher borrowing costs. Data centres have also constrained the rest of the economy by keeping energy prices high. Average American electricity bills have risen by 7% so far in 2025, at least in part due to the extra strain data centres have put on the grid. Real consumption has flatlined since December. Housebuilding has slumped, as has non-AI business investment.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Roughly a sixth of the 2% rise in American real GDP over the past year came from investment in computer and communications equipment, including chips, and data centres; one estimate puts the AI boom's contribution at 40% once grid upgrades and software intellectual property are included.
  2. Average American electricity bills have risen by 7% so far in 2025, at least in part due to the extra strain data centres have put on the grid.

Related Articles:

  • Honey, AI Capex is Eating the Economy — Capital spending on AI data centers is around 20% of railroads' peak spending as a share of GDP and is rising quickly, having already surpassed the dot-com era peak in telecom investment. Unlike long-lived rail infrastructure, data centers are short-lived assets requiring frequent hardware replacement, and the capital is being reallocated from other sectors.
  • Back to Our Regularly Scheduled Programming — The four largest US hyperscalers spent $440bn on capital expenditure and research in 2024, with $596bn projected for 2025, a 35% increase, leaving large gaps between AI spending and AI revenues. These firms account for more than half of all capital expenditure growth in the US equity market.
  • The AI Boom’s Hidden Risk to the Economy — Net income at Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft rose 73% to $91bn in a quarter two years on, while their combined free cash flow fell 30% to $40bn, as heavy AI investment absorbs cash these firms once recycled into financial markets. That spare cash previously helped hold down long-term interest rates despite large federal deficits.
  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research
    • Investment

Is it Over?

AI Summary. Benchmark scores show only modest capability gains in the latest large language model releases compared with the larger jump seen two generations earlier, alongside a broader convergence in performance across competing AI models. Commentators attribute this to inherent limits of the technology and the exhaustion of new training data, raising doubts that the spending on AI hardware is justified.

Joseph Wang Fed Guy Blog
Date Posted:
August 18, 2025
Is Database:
Database

Following tepid reactions to the release of GTP-5, Joe Wang observes, “It is looking more like companies are spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs that produce a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from.”

Are AI capability gains slowing enough to question hardware spending?

Core argument: GPT-5 users widely expressed disappointment with the release, which seemed in some ways a step back, and benchmarks show only modest capability gains since the significant improvement delivered by version 4 two years earlier.

GPT-5 users widely expressed disappointment in the capabilities of the new release, which seemed in some ways a step back. This sentiment is reflected in benchmarks that show a modest improvement in capabilities since the significant improvement in version 4 released two years ago. In addition, the benchmarks suggest a broader convergence in the capabilities of AI models. Commentary suggests this could be due to inherent limitations in the LLM technology and exhaustion of new training data. AI is fascinating technology, but it may not justify the enormous sums spent in its pursuit. It is looking more like companies are spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs that produce a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from. The entire macro landscape would look very different without the support of the AI boom.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. GPT-5 users widely expressed disappointment with the release, which seemed in some ways a step back, and benchmarks show only modest capability gains since the significant improvement delivered by version 4 two years earlier.
  2. Benchmarks suggest a broader convergence in AI model capabilities, with commentary attributing this to inherent limitations of large language model technology and exhaustion of new training data.
  3. Companies appear to be spending hundreds of billions on rapidly depreciating GPUs producing a commoditized product that most clients only modestly benefit from, and the entire macro landscape would look very different without the support of the AI boom.

Related Articles:

  • Honey, AI Capex is Eating the Economy — Capital spending on AI data centers is around 20% of railroads' peak spending as a share of GDP and is rising quickly, having already surpassed the dot-com era peak in telecom investment. Unlike long-lived rail infrastructure, data centers are short-lived assets requiring frequent hardware replacement, and the capital is being reallocated from other sectors.
  • Back to Our Regularly Scheduled Programming — The four largest US hyperscalers spent $440bn on capital expenditure and research in 2024, with $596bn projected for 2025, a 35% increase, leaving large gaps between AI spending and AI revenues. These firms account for more than half of all capital expenditure growth in the US equity market.
  • AI’s $600B Question — Comparing spending on AI chips to historical railroad construction overlooks that high-fixed-cost, low-marginal-cost businesses without monopoly or oligopoly power tend to see prices competed down to marginal cost, and that semiconductors continually improve in cost versus performance, unlike physical infrastructure. Speculative frenzies accompany technology, but the payoff will take a long time.
  • Business Cycle
  • GDP
    • Financial Markets
  • Productivity
    • Innovation/Research
    • Investment

US Households and Firms Are in Great Shape

AI Summary. Household and banking sector leverage in the US have declined significantly since 2008, while corporate leverage has moved sideways and federal government leverage has risen significantly. On this measure, the US private sector is in strong financial shape.

Torsten Sløk Apollo
Date Posted:
March 31, 2025
Is Database:
Database

​​Torsten Sløk notes that US household and banking sector debt has fallen to its lowest level in decades as a % of GDP, while corporate leverage has moved sideways. “The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.”

Is the US private sector in strong financial shape?

Core argument: US household sector leverage and banking sector leverage have both declined significantly since 2008, leaving the US private sector in what the author characterizes as incredibly good shape.

Household sector leverage and banking sector leverage have declined significantly since 2008. Over the same period, federal government leverage has increased significantly, and corporate leverage has moved sideways. The bottom line is that the private sector in the US is in incredibly good shape.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. US household sector leverage and banking sector leverage have both declined significantly since 2008, leaving the US private sector in what the author characterizes as incredibly good shape.
  2. US federal government leverage has increased significantly since 2008, moving in the opposite direction from the deleveraging in the household and banking sectors.
  3. US corporate leverage has moved sideways since 2008, neither declining like household and banking leverage nor rising like federal government leverage.

Related Articles:

  • Global Debt Report 2025 — About 60% of fixed-rate government debt in advanced economies maturing by 2027 — roughly $9tn — was issued before the recent interest-rate tightening, with weighted average yields below 2% versus projected 10-year rates near 3.6%, implying refinancing at nearly double the original cost. France, Spain, the UK, and the US face heightened vulnerability, with maturing debt exceeding 15% of GDP.
  • The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the 10-year Treasury note interest rate will average 3.8% over 2025–2055, close to its 3.7% average over the prior three decades, with the inflation-adjusted rate averaging 1.5%. It assesses that long-run rates are largely set by structural factors including demographics, saving and investment behavior, and federal debt.
  • Our Thoughts on Large US Deficits and Their Impact on Bond Yields — Total borrowing in the US is about average despite high government deficits, as high public borrowing has contributed to the need for higher interest rates that have depressed private sector borrowing. Risk premiums on long-dated debt look about average, with no market signs that economic or debt limits are currently being hit.
  • Business Cycle
  • Fiscal Policy
    • Fiscal Deficits
    • Government Spending
  • GDP
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