For the past 30 years, the correlation between stocks and bonds has been negative. But last year, the trailing three-year correlation turned positive for the first time since November 2000. We classify regimes by the standard deviation of the trailing stock-bond correlation, measured with a 30-day half-life, with an absolute deviation of 0.5 or greater needed to mark a positive or negative correlation regime. While the effect is not the strongest, it shows that neutral and positive-correlation environments tend to be good for equities and oil, while Treasurys and gold benefit from negative-correlation environments.
- Date Posted:
- February 28, 2023