Looking at the 3M growth of seasonally adjusted measures of adjusted goods and services. Goods ex. used cars and trucks have been in sequential deflation since June and should turn negative in YoY% terms shortly. Services ex. housing, travel and medical services slowed from above 7% sequentially in July to about 4.5% over the past 3 months (annualized.) If super core services continue on a slow disinflation path, while goods remain in deflation, then super core CPI, sequentially running at about 1% over 3 months, will continue to weaken from here. As will core PCE which better accounts for changing spending habits.
- Date Posted:
- January 22, 2024
In the United States, long-term changes in the nature of the economy – including advances in technological innovation and automation, declines in the extraction of certain energy resources, increases in globalization, and a shift to the "knowledge-based" economy – have coincided with disproportionately negative employment outcomes in many rural, or "nonmetro," communities, especially for prime working-age men and those with less than a high school degree. These relatively large, negative employment effects may be due, in part, to differences in the historical industrial composition of nonmetro economies (e.g., a relatively large concentration in manufacturing), as well as the lower levels of educational attainment of their residents. In addition to these historical factors, remote places may face an inherent disadvantage in the modern knowledge economy where the clustering of highly skilled workers and firms in dense areas generate increasing returns.