Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…a very valuable contribution.” - Larry Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury and director of the National Economic Council, president emeritus, Harvard University
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “A full-throated defense of economic dynamism.” - The Wall Street Journal
  • “Unintended Consequences should be read by anyone who takes for granted the superiority of progressive taxation and has not thought carefully about the trade-offs involved.” - The New Republic
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a comprehensive explanation of the modern economy.” - Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management
  • “Unintended Consequences is full of substance, it is one of the must-read books of the year, and once I finish it I will be giving it a second read through right away.” - Tyler Cowen, Professor, George Mason University
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. Rising gasoline prices have pushed average hourly earnings 0.7% below their year-earlier level after adjusting for inflation, erasing more than a year of wage gains. Inflation eroding wage increases is one reason consumer sentiment sits near record lows despite relatively low unemployment and a strong stock market.

Justin Lahart The Wall Street Journal
Date Posted:
Is Database:
Database

The .7% y/y decline in real wages has brought average hourly earnings back to their level when Trump took office; the downtick is half the size of their cumulative decline over Biden’s four years.

Have rising gas prices erased more than a year of wage gains?

Core argument: Average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation are 0.7% below their year-earlier level, the biggest such gap since February 2023, as surging gasoline prices erase more than a year of U.S. wage gains.

Surging gasoline prices have erased more than a year of Americans’ wage gains. That inflation-adjusted gap—average-hourly earnings falling 0.7% below their year-earlier level—is the biggest since February 2023. The mismatch has quickly knocked Americans’ inflation-adjusted earnings back to where they were in January 2025, when President Trump returned to the White House. (Over the course of President Joe Biden’s four years in office, when prices surged, inflation-adjusted earnings fell 1.4%.) Seeing inflation eat into wage increases is one reason consumer sentiment is hovering around near-record lows, despite relatively low unemployment and a hot stock market.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation are 0.7% below their year-earlier level, the biggest such gap since February 2023, as surging gasoline prices erase more than a year of U.S. wage gains.
  2. Inflation-adjusted earnings have fallen back to their January 2025 level, when President Trump returned to the White House; over President Biden's four years in office they fell 1.4%.
  3. Inflation eating into wage increases is one reason consumer sentiment hovers around near-record lows despite relatively low unemployment and a hot stock market.

Related Articles:

  • US Producer Prices Rise at Fastest Pace Since November 2022 — The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US producer prices rose 6.5% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace in more than two years, and 1.1% from the prior month. A core measure excluding food and energy rose 4.9% year over year.
  • US Consumer Sentiment Slides to Record Low on Price Concerns — The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell 5 points to 44.8, a record low and weaker than all economist projections in a Bloomberg survey. Consumers expect prices to rise 3.9% annually over the next five to 10 years, up from 3.5%, and 4.8% over the coming year.
  • Do Voters Punish Inflation or Pay Cuts? Inflation and Real Wages in U.S. Elections — An analysis of U.S. counties estimates that where wages grew faster than prices, voters supported the incumbent party more, while counties with larger real wage losses than average shifted more toward the opposition. A one-standard-deviation larger real wage loss is associated with shifts of roughly 0.10 and 0.19 percentage points in vote share and margin.
Showing 131 database articles primarily about Wages/Income