In 2010, there were 98 nations and territories with fertility rates below 2.1 (known as the replacement rate) according to the United Nations. In 2021, that number had risen to 124, or more than half the countries for which data were available. The world’s 15 largest economies all have fertility rates below the replacement rate. Educated women have for decades tended to have fewer children. But fertility among the less educated is now falling. On a global level the link between national incomes and fertility rates has also weakened. India’s fertility rate, for example, fell below 2.1 in 2020, despite a gross domestic product of less than $3,000 per person.
- Date Posted:
- June 16, 2023
Investors are paying a sizable premium for AI exposure. One example: the 32 stocks in the $CHAT Generative AI ETF have returned 77% this year. The 22 $CHAT ETF stocks that have positive earnings projected for the next 12 months trade at an average P/E of 31x. The other 10 $CHAT ETF stocks have infinite P/Es, either due to negative earnings or trivially positive earnings that create nonsense P/E ratios over 100x. The large language model revolution is going to have to live up to the high end of expectations to justify this. I have seen estimates that AI will eventually add ~10% to the fair value of the S&P 500 due to some combination of augmented employee productivity and staff reductions, but I’m not sure how one would measure that.