Edward Conard

Top Ten New York Times Bestselling Author

  • “Unintended Consequences offers deep and well-argued analyses on almost every issue.” - The New York Times
  • “…a must-read for serious students of economic policy.” - Glenn Hubbard, Dean, Columbia Business School, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “Unintended Consequences provides a provocative interpretation of the causes of the global financial crisis and the policies needed to return to rapid growth. Whether you agree or not, this analysis is well worth reading.” - Nouriel Roubini, New York University; Chairman, Roubini Global Economics
  • “…challenges misconceptions that distort our economic debates.” - Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute
  • “…reminds us that inequality sends a signal of what society lacks most, in America’s case, entrepreneurship and risk taking.” - Lawrence Lindsey, CEO, The Lindsey Group, former Director of the National Economic Council
  • “…serious thinking for serious thinkers. …a thought-provoking blueprint for growing middle- and working-class incomes.” - Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts
  • “Unintended Consequences represents the most cogent and persuasive analysis of the Financial Crisis to date.” - Andrei Shleifer, 1999 John Bates Clark Medal Winner
  • “Unintended Consequences is far smarter and more thought-provoking than most economics written for the general public” - Greg Mankiw, Harvard University, Former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
  • “…a fresh argument for the productive value of inequality.” - David Autor, Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • “There are an amazing number of good ideas and interesting points made in Unintended Consequences. The thinking underlying it, and the obvious depth of understanding of the author, are very impressive.” - Steven Levitt, coauthor of Freakonomics; 2004 John Bates Clark Medal
Upside of Inequality Oxford Unintended Consequences

AI Summary. U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions of people crossing the southern border illegally have fallen to about 8,300 a month, down from a record of more than 225,000 in a single month. Crossings through the Darién Gap, the land bridge between South and Central America, fell to 408 from more than 37,000 a year earlier.

Simon Romero and Paulina Villegas New York Times
Date Posted:

February apprehensions at the southern border were down over 80% from December to 8,347, as the Trump administration’s new border policy came into effect. If the current trend holds, apprehensions could fall to levels unseen since ~ 1967.

Have hard-line enforcement tactics sharply reduced illegal border crossings?

Core argument: Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America says that if February's pace holds for a full year, U.S. migrant apprehensions could fall to levels unseen since around 1967.

In February, the U.S. Border Patrol said it had apprehended 8,347 people trying to illegally cross the border, down from a record high of more than 225,000 apprehensions in December 2023. Those numbers had already been dropping sharply since the Biden administration unveiled its immigration restrictions last year. In December, the final full month Mr. Biden was in office, the Border Patrol apprehended 47,330 migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. If that trend holds for a full year, migrant apprehensions in the United States could fall to levels unseen since around 1967, according to Adam Isacson, a migration expert at the Washington Office on Latin America. There are signs that figures are plummeting farther south in the region, too. The number of people trying to reach the United States through the Darién Gap — the forbidding land bridge connecting South America and Central America that is a barometer of future pressure at the U.S.-Mexico border — dropped to 408 in February, down from more than 37,000 in the same month last year, according to Panama’s Immigration Institute.

Takeaways by Macro Roundup® AI

  1. Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America says that if February's pace holds for a full year, U.S. migrant apprehensions could fall to levels unseen since around 1967.
  2. Crossings of the Darién Gap, the land bridge between South America and Central America that serves as a barometer of future pressure at the U.S.-Mexico border, fell to 408 in February from more than 37,000 a year earlier, according to Panama's Immigration Institute.
  3. The U.S. Border Patrol apprehended 8,347 people crossing the border illegally in February, down from 47,330 in December, Mr. Biden's final full month in office, and a record of more than 225,000 in December 2023.

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  • The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054 — The Congressional Budget Office projects the US population will grow from 342mm in 2024 to 383mm in 2054, an average 0.4% a year — less than half the 0.9% pace of the prior five decades. Immigration accounts for about 70% of growth over the next decade and for all population growth beginning in 2040.
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