A big percentage of the work that is done in a modern economy is amenable to being augmented by LLMs and generative AI. The effects on those tasks have been significant — double-digit productivity gains within just a few months in some of the cases I’ve studied. Multiply the large percentage of affected tasks by sizeable productivity gains for each one and you get a big total economic impact. I’m betting that productivity growth is maybe significantly higher in the 2020s than the Congressional Budget Office is projecting. They projected 1.4% average per year. I think it could be twice that — closer to 3% — maybe more. There have been other studies that have looked at roles from software coding to management consulting, and different kinds of writing tasks. And each of them found a very similar pattern where 1) there were often double-digit gains in productivity, 2) the less skilled workers typically benefited more, and 3) the gains showed up within just a few months.
- Date Posted:
- January 30, 2024
US venture capitalists are sitting on $311bn in unspent cash, as they shy away from risky bets on Silicon Valley start-ups and concentrate on finding ways to return capital to their own backers. American VC groups have deployed just half of a record $435bn they raised from investors during the pandemic-era boom between 2020 and 2022, according to private markets data company PitchBook. VCs are coming under increasing pressure to return capital to their own backers — institutional investors, foundations, and pension funds, known as “limited partners”. “LPs don’t usually like to put pressure on VCs to spend money, but if you’re entering your third year of not doing anything, they’re starting to ask what are my fees for,” said a Silicon Valley venture capital investor. “In the first tech bubble crash [in 2000] there were a number of funds who downsized their funds significantly,” he said. “I would hope that we do see that, venture firms cutting their fund size and forgiving commitments to their investors and resizing. That would be a really good outcome.”